2026 Cy Young Odds: Cease-Schlittler May Go Down to the Wire

Previous Cy Young picks thread

5/11: Skenes/McLean

Since allowing five earned runs in 2/3 of an inning in his season debut, Paul Skenes has arguably been the best starting pitcher in the National League. He's 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings. He has the lowest walk rate of any qualified starter since April 1 and has consistently shown a durability uncommon in today's game. The best time to bet on him would have been after that first start. But now, it's fine to be aggressive. Waiting for another stumble in his game may be a fool's errand. However, if you're looking to balance him out with a longer shot, I like New York Mets rookie Nolan McLean at +2500. His 32% strikeout rate is second among qualified NL starters since April 1, behind just Jacob Misiorowski. I prefer McLean because of the longer odds and the stable poise he brings to the table. The Mets may be a joke, but McLean is a legitimate ace who hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a single start this season. 

4/20: Gausman

I'm adding a sprinkle on Kevin Gausman, who is barely shorter than Ragans while drawing the same odds as Garrett Crochet at +4000. Gausman may be a bit older, but he's kicked off his season pitching better than he arguably ever has. He's got a 2.54 ERA (2.42 xERA) with 35 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings. The price is just way off. He's historically durable, having thrown at least 174 innings in five straight seasons, and doesn't hurt himself with walks or the gopher ball.

3/25: Cease/Perez

The Toronto Blue Jays jumped early in the offseason to sign Dylan Cease to a long-term contract, and while he has his share of detractors, this is a fantastic situation for the right-hander. The Blue Jays represent the best defense he's ever played in front of, and that should greatly affect his BABIP and help mitigate his ERA shortcomings. His peripherals have always been great, and despite a 4.55 ERA last year, his 3.56 FIP is encouraging. So is the fact that he's pitched at least 165 innings in five straight seasons. He's durable. And no pitcher has recorded more strikeouts in that time. No one.  Toronto and pitching coach Pete Walker have done this before, too. Robbie Ray was always a talented pitcher who couldn't quite piece it all together (though he had some bright seasons with Arizona), and then he put together a Cy Young-winning season with the Blue Jays and parlayed it into a big contract with Seattle. At +3000, Cease is too much of a value play to pass up.On the Senior Circuit, Miami Marlins right-hander Eury Perez has gone from +4500 to +3500, and I'm kicking myself for not taking the plunge sooner, especially after my first pick, Hunter Greene, went down with a long-term injury. Health will be the key, but Perez is an electric arm, and he gets to pitch his home games at pitcher-friendly LoanDepot Park. His fastball is among the best in baseball, averaging close to 98 mph in 2025, and if he takes the expected leap forward in his age-23 season, +3500 is more than a reasonable ask for him to become the second Cy Young winner in Marlins franchise history after Sandy Alcantara.

2/24: Greene/Ragans

Kansas City Royals left-hander Cole Ragans was limited to 61 2/3 innings in 2025, but he was electric when able to take the mound. The 4.67 ERA is unseemly, but that came with a 2.67 expected ERA and a 2.50 FIP. It's reasonable to assume he was a bit unlucky, especially with improvements to his strikeout rate and walk rate. His 30.4% K-BB rate was the best among MLB starters with at least 60 innings pitched last season, and he has a clean bill of health entering spring training. As for Cincinnati Reds righty Hunter Greene, he threw just 107 2/3 innings but was arguably the best version of himself. His 2.76 ERA was just a tick off his 2024 mark, and he posted the best strikeout and walk rates of his career, at 31.4% and 6.2%, respectively. If Greene can roll those improvements into a larger workload, he has the stuff to be there in the home stretch.