2023 MLB Cy Young Odds: Blake Snell Walks Like a Man

Odds to win AL Cy Young award

Player
Gerrit Cole	-1,800	-2,200	-2,000
Luis Castillo	+1,100	+1,200	+1,200
Sonny Gray	+5,000	+2,500	+2,500
Kevin Gausman	+6,000	+25,000	+10,000
Framber Valdez	+7,500	+15,000	+5,000
George Kirby	+20,000	OTB	+15,000
Pablo Lopez	+20,000	+25,000	+25,000

Odds as of September 19, 2023. Odds off book as of September 25.

AL Cy Young odds analysis

9/25/2023: The AL Cy Young race was moving in Gerrit Cole's direction for a good, long while. Yes, there remained doubt because of pitchers who had stronger underlying numbers in some categories, but Cole's overall body of work was increasingly giving him the edge. Then, he went out and twirled eight phenomenal innings against the Blue Jays, allowing one run on two hits while striking out nine for his 14th win of the season.

He's one of three MLB pitchers to reach the 200-inning plateau to this point (the other two are in the NL) and has been simply rock solid, durable, and consistent. While perhaps not as dominant as he was in prior seasons, Cole has been the lone positive constant for the Yankees this season and he will get his prize.

Previous AL Cy Young action

9/19/2023: While Gerrit Cole continues to pull away as the frontrunner, there is some value to be had behind him that further showcases the benefit of shopping around. If, for example, you think writers will favor Sonny Gray for leading AL pitchers in WAR or Kevin Gausman for being the best strikeout artist in the junior circuit, you can find better prices if you don't just settle for one book. Gray is currently available at DraftKings at 50/1 compared to 25/1 elsewhere. There's an even bigger gap when it comes to Gausman, who can be had at 250/1 at FanDuel compared to 100/1 or as short as 60/1 at other books. Also, Gray will pitch in the postseason since the Minnesota Twins are a near certainty to win the AL Central. The New York Yankees are almost completely cooked. If Cole wins, it could come down to W-L record, which is more a judgment for the team and not the pitcher in those instances. Granted, Cole has pitched nearly 20 more innings than Gray, so that could be part of it, too.
9/13/2023: Gerrit Cole dominated the Milwaukee Brewers in his last start, allowing just three hits while striking out nine over seven shutout frames, lowering his ERA to an AL-best 2.79 in the process. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman limited the Kansas City Royals to one run on two hits over eight innings while he struck out 10. It's puzzling to see Luis Castillo fetching shorter odds, not because he's a bad pitcher but because Gausman has been demonstrably superior nearly across the board. Castillo's advantage in the ERA department (3.08 to Gausman's 3.28) is hardly reason to expect this wide a disparity. But that issue is likely moot since Cole, barring a couple of unprecedented implosions in the season's final few weeks, is walking away with his first Cy Young trophy. Still, 60/1 makes Gausman at least somewhat tempting.
9/5/2023: There is still plenty of time for Blue Jays ace — and AL WAR leader — Kevin Gausman to make up ground on the odds board and grabbing him at longer than 10/1 is the best value on him in ages. Sonny Gray, the AL leader in ERA at 2.92, has seen his odds shorten a bit, but the issue with him might be the 7-6 win-loss record. Gerrit Cole is still the clubhouse leader by a wide margin and while the race is probably tighter than that disparity in odds suggests, it's easy to see why he's there. Cole is 12-4 on a Yankees team that has largely struggled to win and he leads the AL in innings with 174. He's not striking batters out at his highest clip, but he's finding success with great consistency and has maintained an ERA below 3.00.
8/29/2023: The Seattle Mariners are surging in the standings in large part due to reigning AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez. The pitching staff cannot be discounted, though, especially ace Luis Castillo, who is 11-7 with a 3.01 ERA over his 27 starts. He consistently pitches deep in games, finishing at least seven innings nine times and in three consecutive outings. He has finished five frames every single time. You can make an argument for his teammate George Kirby, as well. The 25-year-old hasn't walked more than two batters in any outing this season and hasn't issued a single free pass in four straight starts. He has allowed seven runs in his last 11 2/3 innings, though, helping open the door for Castillo in the odds. Gerrit Cole is still the favorite, but he's vulnerable and the value in this market can be found in the field. Kevin Gausman's odds are the longest they've been in some time and he's still the AL leader in WAR and strikeout rate.
8/22/2023: Does anyone want to win this thing? This isn't meant to besmirch any of the contenders out there, but after Kevin Gausman got hit around by the Phillies to the tune of seven runs (five earned) on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings, our betting favorite didn't do any better in what could have been a nail in the race's coffin. Gerrit Cole allowed six earned runs in just four innings vs. Boston, bumping his ERA to 3.03 on the season. He's striking out just over a batter per inning and hasn't looked as dominant as in years past despite overall solid numbers. Cole could very easily still win, but he definitely doesn't have an insurmountable lead — case in point being he's now at even odds to win at FanDuel. An interesting name to watch is Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish, who isn't listed across the board. He's actually tied with Cole for the AL lead in ERA at 3.03 and has been especially sharp since the All-Star break, going 3-2 with a 2.47 ERA in 43 2/3 innings across seven starts. And that includes a rough outing against the Phillies where he allowed five runs, all earned, in 6 2/3 frames. If his numbers keep trending in that direction, expect his odds to tighten.
8/16/2023: Toronto Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman has been prone to the odd implosion and his 9-6 record will cause some old-school baseball types to bristle as being unimpressive (which should be a sentiment long in the past) but he's probably been the best pitcher in the American League this season. He leads all AL hurlers with 4.4 WAR (FanGraphs style), an 11.85 K/9, and a 2.72 FIP. And his ERA has caught up, now sitting at 3.04 after he twirled seven dominant, shutout innings at Cleveland in his last start. And yet, he's second on the odds board behind Gerrit Cole. Cole has put together a very strong campaign of his own, going 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA (3.33 FIP) while leading the Junior Circuit in innings pitched (156 1/3). So, his pure volume in an age when pitchers rarely reach the 200-inning plateau could be the difference maker. Because even if, by some metrics, Gausman has been better, the case isn't a slam dunk and a vote for Cole would hardly be egregious. The fact is, there is plenty of time for this to go either way and an underdog could emerge with a strong month. One such underdog is Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby. Kirby narrowly leads Cole in WAR and his 3.11 ERA is more than respectable. Where Kirby truly excels is in his command. He has issued 14 total walks in 144 2/3 innings, fewest among all qualified starters. He's issued two walks in just two outings this season, and never more than that. And in 11 of his 23 starts, Kirby hasn't given away any free passes at all. Because he pitches to contact, he will have an occasional poor outing, but he generally limits the damage.
8/8/2023: A lot can change in just a few days. New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole was still available as long as +110 to win AL Cy Young just a week ago and that line has gone the way of the Dodo. Now, this doesn't mean the hardware is his because the tides can shift at a moment's notice and this is being updated the same day when Framber Valdez is taking the mound and a day before the AL's pitching WAR leader Kevin Gausman returns to the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays. Cole is also coming off his worst start since late June, allowing four runs on five hits (including a home run) while walking two and striking out just three batters Monday vs. the White Sox. Strong outings from Valdez and Gausman could easily tighten things up.
8/1/2023: Nathan Eovaldi is the latest AL Cy Young hopeful to fall to injury as the Texas Rangers right-hander landed on the IL with a right forearm strain. While Texas is hopeful his time on the shelf will be minimal, forearm injuries are often alarming and not too easy to come back from. Kevin Gausman still leads the AL in WAR (per FanGraphs) at 3.9 and strikeout rate (33%). But Gerrit Cole's 2.64 ERA over 136 1/3 innings might be giving him the edge. Gausman has been prone to the odd blow-up while Cole has been extremely steady, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his last 10 starts dating back to June 3.
7/19/2023: While the severity of the injuries facing Framber Valdez and Kevin Gausman doesn't immediately appear significant in the grand scheme of things, they have allowed New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole to resurface atop the board. Cole's strikeout numbers are down but he's still been largely effective as one of the lone bright spots in the Bronx this summer. And he successfully navigated Coors Field in his first start out of the All-Star break, allowing one run on two hits while matching a season-high with 11 strikeouts over six innings. Cole is also only 2/3 of an inning shy of AL leader Nathan Eovaldi's 123 2/3. If Cole can reclaim his past dominance and continue shoving deep into games, the right-hander will be able to take advantage of injury-related absences.
7/11/2023: The AL Cy Young race is maybe the most exciting of the MLB awards races to this point of the season. Framber Valdez has finished the first half in fine form. His 2.51 ERA narrowly leads all qualified starters, with Shane McClanahan — out with a shoulder injury — right behind him at 2.53. Kevin Gausman has the highest K/9 (11.90) in the AL and leads all qualified starters with a 2.45 FIP and a round 4.0 WAR, per FanGraphs. A strong second half would go a long way for a number of other pitchers, too. If Nathan Eovaldi, the AL leader in innings pitched, can find another gear and eclipse 200 innings for the first time in his career.
7/4/2023: Shane McClanahan wound up on the IL after all and has seen his status as Cy Young front-runner disappear at most books. Astros lefty Framber Valdez has taken that spot as a result, but it's hardly a runaway. It's going to be a tight race through to the end of the season. Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman are next in line behind Valdez, with some books favoring one and others favoring the other. Valdez leads the AL in ERA (2.49) while Gausman leads in WAR (3.8) and Shohei Ohtani leads in strikeout rate (33.2%). Cole isn't leading any category, but he's close in several and is just a string of strong starts away from being back in the thick of things.
6/27/2023: It's a two-horse race at the very top of the AL Cy Young race with Astros lefty Framber Valdez having shorter odds than Rays ace Shane McClanahan at some books. Valdez has the edge in walk rate and homers allowed while McClanahan — by the narrowest of margins — leads in strikeout rate and ERA. A back injury gave bettors — and Rays fans — some anxiety in recent days, but McClanahan is not expected to land on the IL and is only having his next start pushed back a few days. The AL leader in WAR — per FanGraphs — is Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman, who sits third on the board at several sportsbooks. The 3.10 ERA is a touch higher than some of his peers, but he leads the AL in K/9 (11.58) and has been snake-bitten by some bad luck (.333 BABIP).
6/19/2023: Shane McClanahan is will white hot while recording an-MLB leading 2.12 ERA. He's allowed three-plus earned runs in just two of his 15 starts, and notched seven-plus strikeouts in seven of those appearances. He also ranks sixth in opponent's batting average (.201). McClanahan is slowly building his lead on Framber Valdez and Gerrit Cole atop the oddsboard, with the latter falling recently after being listed at +400 to begin June. Elsewhere, Kevin Gausman has been making a push and is now listed at +750. He stumbled while allowing six runs against the Minnesota Twins. But overall, Gausman has produced nine outings with one or fewer earned runs allowed.
5/30/2023: The Tampa Bay Rays may have a comfortable lead over the New York Yankees in the AL East race, but the battle for the AL Cy Young is much tighter, with Tampa's electric lefty Shane McClanahan the favorite at +350... and Yankees ace Gerrit Cole ever-so-slightly behind at +400.
McClanahan has allowed more than two earned runs (and failed to complete five innings) just once in 11 starts this season, as he's second in the AL with a 1.97 ERA, third in opponent batting average (.202), sixth with a 10.55 K/9, and leads the AL with eight wins (and zero losses). He's pulled ahead of Cole, who's hit a rough patch in allowing 5+ runs in three of his last five outings and now sits 10th in ERA, although he is still fourth in total strikeouts.
It isn't just those AL East arms vying for the Cy; they are joined near the top by Angels star Shohei Ohtani, who sits at 6/1 on the odds board as he is 5-1 with the fourth-lowest WHIP (0.95), an AL-leading 12.46 K/9, and an OBA of .155 — more than 20 percentage points lower than the next-best arm.
After those three, Minnesota stud Joe Ryan is third at 10/1, followed by Toronto's Kevin Gausman (+1,200), and Seattle's Luis Castillo at +1,400.
As for who the public is supporting, BetMGM is reporting that Ohtani has the highest ticket percentage (12.5%), while Cole is the leader in handle with 20.8% of the money.
5/8/2023: New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole finally had a dud of an outing, blowing a 6-0 lead yesterday in a loss to the Rays, but he's still shortened his odds down +250 on the back of a 5-0 record with a 2.09 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 58 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings.
He's joined near the top by Angels star Shohei Ohtani, who went from 12/1 on Opening Day to +450 now, but he's been nearly unhittable with 59 strikeouts (in just 39 innings), a 0.87 WHIP and a .125 opponent batting average.
The biggest moves, however, come from Rays stud Shane McClanahan, who is now third at +750, along with Twins righty Sonny Gray, who sports an MLB-best 1.35 ERA and went from wayyyyy down the board to his current price of 22/1.
For players to go up, others have to go down, and Blue Jays righty Alek Manoah continues his slide, dropping from 8/1 on Opening Day to +7,000 now, while Opening Day favorite Jacob deGrom's endless injuries have dropped him down to 25/1.
As far as where the public betting? Well, Ohtani has the highest percentage of tickets (13.4%) at BetMGM, while Cole has brought in the most money with 20.1% of the total handle.
4/20/2023: New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has been one of the best pitchers in baseball through the first three weeks of the season, posting a 4-0 record with a 0.95 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 32 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings, so his odds as the favorite have shortened from +600 to +400.
He's joined near the top by Angels star Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 27 Ks in 21 IP), who went from 12/1 on Opening Day to +500 now, leapfrogging Rangers star Jacob deGrom, who has rebounded from an ugly Opening Day start but left his last start (after four no-hit innings) with wrist soreness.
Other notable moves include Mariners stud Luis Castillo, who is the hottest SP in the league right now and went from 14/1 to 10/1 after posting an MLB-best 0.73 ERA and 0.61 WHIP, along with a .131 opponent batting average through 24 2/3 innings, while Blue Jays righty Alek Manoah continues his slide, dropping from 8/1 on Opening Day to +4,000 now, after his worst start of the season (and third poor outing in four games) leaves him with a 6.98 ERA and horrendous 7.0 BB/9.
Cole and Castillo may have the nicest stats so far, but the public is still on Ohtani, who has the highest percentage of tickets (12.9%) at BetMGM, while White Sox ace Dylan Cease has brought in the most money with 13.3% of the total handle.
4/3/2023: After basically one start for each pitcher, we've already got some shakeup atop the AL Cy Young odds board: Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is now the favorite at +600... with Jacob deGrom tumbling from around +550 to +700, in a tie for second with Dylan Cease, who jumped up from +900.
Cole (6 innings, three hits, zero runs, 11 strikeouts) and Cease (6 1/3 innings, two hits, one run, 10 Ks) both had spectacular 2023 debuts — while deGrom got a rude awakening to AL life... from an old NL foe, as the Phillies beat him up for five runs on six hits in just 3 2/3 innings.
Also rising was Angels star Shohei Ohtani (from 12/1 to +850), who seems to be getting a lot of love from bettors as he currently has the highest percentage of tickets (12.9%) at BetMGM, while Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah dropped to +1,100 (from 8/1) after also getting roughed up on Opening Day.
3/28/2023: There is no movement at the top of the Cy Young odds board, but the middle of the pack saw some movement, as Cristian Javier moved from 20/1 to +1,800 (following a strong Spring Training that saw him post a 0.94 WHIP and 10 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings), and Triston McKenzie jumped from +3,000 to 22/1.
The Guardians starter had a sparkling 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP last season, but the 25-year-old righty's movement is a little curious as it was announced yesterday that he will miss at least two months with a shoulder strain.
3/2/2023: Yes, you read that right: Jacob deGrom is the favorite in the American League, opening at +550 after leaving the New York Mets in the offseason and signing a five-year, $185-million contract in the offseason. He's been undisputedly the best pitcher in baseball over the last five years, posting a 2.05 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 12.2 K/9, but injuries have been a concern — he's made just 38 starts total over the last three years — and he will be 35 this year.
After deGrom is a starter still in the Big Apple: New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who sits at +650 despite posting his worst ERA since 2017, although he did lead the Majors in strikeouts. After him is Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah (+800), last year's Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease (+900), and then 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber rounding out the early arms sitting shorter than 10/1.

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Odds to win NL Cy Young award

Player
Blake Snell	-4,000	-6,000	-5,000
Justin Steele	+1,500	+2,500	+2,000
Spencer Strider	+4,000	+6,000	+5,000
Zac Gallen	+10,000	+11,000	+10,000
Zack Wheeler	+10,000	OTB	+30,000
Logan Webb	+10,000	+10,000	+10,000
Corbin Burnes	+15,000	+30,000	+30,000
Kodai Senga	+15,000	+10,000	+10,000

Odds as of September 19, 2023.

NL Cy Young analysis

9/25/23: Check back on Tuesday and this market, much like the AL, might be pulled entirely. Blake Snell will be making either his final or second-last start of the season on Monday night. He's pitching against a Giants team that stinks against lefties, especially ones as dominant as Snell.

The biggest criticism of the Padres southpaw has been his propensity to issue walks. With a 13% walk rate and 5.02 BB/9, he's issuing walks more frequently than any other qualified starter. However, it could be by design. He's not serving up meatballs in the middle of the zone, electing to give one base instead of four. This has resulted in the best ERA in the majors by a mile. Barring something wild and catastrophic, Snell should take this one home.

Previous NL Cy Young action

9/19/23: The most interesting nugget this week is the late ascent of New York Mets right-hander Kodai Senga at some books, with his odds as short as 70/1 — or, the third-shortest number at FanDuel. He's been something of an unsung hero for the afterthought Metropolitans, but he's been consistently excellent all year but especially since the end of June. Senga hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in an outing since June 17, a span of 14 starts where he's posted a 2.46 ERA with 104 strikeouts over 84 innings (11.14 K/9). He's hit double-digit Ks in three of his last four outings and has completed six innings in seven straight. His numbers are surprisingly close to Blake Snell's on the whole but the lefty has been proving doubters wrong throughout the second half and might have this award locked up.
9/13/23: Spencer Strider had his chance and blew it. The Atlanta Braves right-hander could have surged to the front of the line with a dominant September, but opened the month with an ugly line against the lowly St. Louis Cardinals, allowing six earned runs on six hits while walking three and notching just five strikeouts. Blake Snell remains the betting favorite thanks to his strikeout prowess and low ERA, but Justin Steele might actually be the best bet at this point of the race. The Chicago Cubs southpaw owns the best ERA in the majors (2.49) and has gone 16-3 through 27 starts. His command is excellent, walking fewer than two batters per nine innings and he's allowed fewer homers than any qualified pitcher other than Sonny Gray.
9/5/23: Blake Snell continues to see his odds shorten and I just don't get it. Yes, the 2.50 ERA still leads the NL, but he walks everyone and doesn't pitch as deep into games as several of his peers. Yes, he has great strikeout numbers but Spencer Strider's are better. Strider has had the opposite statistical season in a way, posting an ERA that's a bit high but with an expected ERA and FIP that are much lower. As Strider's odds continue to get longer, there's some value in taking a flier on him despite his relatively rough outing against the Dodgers in his last start. Justin Steele has climbed the board, too, as he's taken the reins as Cubs ace with Marcus Stroman sidelined. He's tied with Strider with 16 wins, and if they do reach the 20-win plateau (still impressive in the eyes of voters), then they might gain an added edge over Snell.8/29/23: Of all the MLB awards races, the NL Cy Young has been perhaps the most intriguing. Blake Snell being the betting favorite with just over a month to play was likely not on many people's bingo cards at the start of the season, but he's been incredible. Since May 25, he's gone 10-3 with a 1.38 ERA over 18 starts. As has been touched on before, he's doing this despite of his MLB-high walk rate because he's simply overpowering batters with a 12.55 K/9 in those 18 outings. It still feels like Spencer Strider is being undervalued based on one rough patch in an otherwise strong season. The 3.46 ERA isn't earth-shattering but his 2.98 xERA and 2.80 FIP give an idea that he's been a touch unlucky. He's cut down his walk rate from 2022 and is roughly on par in terms of his strikeout rate. He's also only allowed one earned run over his last 21 innings. Granted, that includes two starts against the lowly Giants, but still. If he can successfully navigate Coors Field in his next start, we might see these odds tighten up once again.
8/22/23: Is there a case to be made for Clayton Kershaw despite the fact that he missed over a month due to an injury? Well, with the Dodgers thriving, he's shown up in two starts since his activation, allowing just two total runs on six hits in 10 innings. Now, he only has six strikeouts in those starts so some luck combined with lesser opponents (Brewers and Rockies don't have the best offenses) might suggest he's in line for trouble. Spencer Strider, however, seems to have reclaimed his stature. He hasn't allowed a single run over his last two starts and is coming off a 10-strikeout performance against the Giants where he allowed just one hit over seven scoreless frames. His next start should come against those same Giants but at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco. Another strong outing and Strider will be back alongside Zac Gallen as a betting favorite.
8/16/23: It's at least somewhat surprising that Zac Gallen still has the shortest odds among NL Cy Young candidates. Since the All-Star break, the Arizona Diamondbacks ace is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA over six starts. His uneven play has also coincided with the dip in Arizona's playoff chances. The problem has been that no one has exactly emerged as a clear alternative. While Spencer Strider continues to strike opponents out at an elite clip, his 4.67 ERA over his own six starts in the wake of the Midsummer Classic has been underwhelming. Blake Snell owns a sparkling 1.97 ERA over his last 32 innings but he's also issued 27 walks in that time (7.59 BB/9). So, they all have their flaws. The best pitcher in the NL since the break has arguably been Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta, who has gone 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA (2.49 FIP) and an NL-leading 36.2% strikeout rate (Strider's is 35.2% in that same span). The problem there is Peralta's season-long numbers haven't been as impressive and he currently doesn't have a footprint on betting boards. Maybe it's worth keeping an eye on this space, though, as Fastball Freddy should line up to face the Rangers this weekend.
8/8/23: As mentioned in the above AL section, so we can't exactly write Spencer Strider out of the race, but his recent performances aren't doing him any favors — though this might be the best value you'll find attached to his name. Strider's ERA shot up to 3.94 after allowing six earned runs on five hits in just 2 2/3 innings on Monday. It was his shortest start of the season and his three strikeouts were the fewest he's recorded in any of his 43 career MLB starts. Altogether, Strider has allowed 18 earned runs (five home runs) in 27 2/3 innings across his five starts since the All-Star break. That said, his FIP remains a sparkling 2.94 and his expected ERA is 3.08. The home run ball has bitten him hard in 2023 after not being a factor a year ago. But despite those hiccups, he's striking more batters out while walking fewer and hasn't shown any signs of injury. Still, Zac Gallen and Blake Snell have put together impressive campaigns and have fewer blemishes on the whole. And despite leading all pitchers in wins above replacement, Zack Wheeler has a similarly inflated ERA (3.71) that could give voters pause.
8/1/23: The Cy Young pursuit is way more exciting than either league's MVP race. Zac Gallen is still among the pitchers with the shortest odds on the board, but he has plenty of competition. San Diego Padres left-hander Blake Snell leads all qualified starters with a 2.50 ERA. Yes, his 5.14 BB/9 is on the high side (in fact, it's the highest) but he's missing bats and suppressing the long ball. As a result, his odds have continuously slimmed. Spencer Strider continues to be in a class on his own when it comes to the strikeout pitch, registering a 39.6% strikeout rate. Snell is closest in the NL at 31.1%. But it's Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler who leads the majors in FanGraphs pitching WAR (4.4). He's striking batters out (10.44 K/9), limiting walks (1.73 BB/9), and keeping the ball in the park (0.72 HR/9). The problem is his 3.74 ERA masks his underlying metrics (3.17 xERA and 2.74 FIP). And look out for Corbin Burnes, who has completed at least six innings while allowing two or fewer earned runs in six straight outings dating back to July 1. He has a 1.85 ERA with 47 strikeouts over his last 39 innings.
7/19/23: Zac Gallen's lead has all but evaporated as Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider has either pulled even or is getting even shorter odds now. It's kind of surprising given the timing. True, Gallen has allowed three or more runs in three of four starts, but he still owns a 3.14 ERA and an NL-leading 3.7 WAR. Strider has the strikeout advantage, punching out 14.3 batters per nine innings, but he is coming off a start where he allowed five earned runs on eight hits to the Chicago White Sox. There's simply a lot of uncertainty. Even former favorite Clayton Kershaw remains in the running because he's due back in the rotation by early August. A strong two-month stretch could propel him back into contention.
7/11/23: Little has changed as we've hit the All-Star break, but it's time to highlight San Diego Padres lefty Blake Snell, who was between 18/1 and 20/1 to win a week ago. Somehow, the likes of Corbin Burnes and Alex Cobb were named as All-Star replacements over Snell despite not having numbers that really compare. The southpaw is having his best season in a Friars uniform — and best since his incredible, AL Cy Young-winning season in 2018 — despite the 6-7 record. He has a 2.85 ERA and his 32.4% strikeout rate trails only Spencer Strider (38.9%) on the Senior Circuit. Snell still has issues with the free pass — his 12% walk rate is the highest among all qualified starters — but he's limiting damage in every other fashion. Zac Gallen, the NL starter for the All-Star Game, is still the leader in the clubhouse, but it's a tight race and likely will be for a while yet. Like the AL, it's an incredibly difficult competition.
7/4/23: Injuries are sometimes tricky to gauge, especially around the All-Star break. The Dodgers just placed Clayton Kershaw on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder soreness. It doesn't seem too serious and could be a way of giving the veteran extra rest heading into the second half of the season. He will be eligible to return on July 15 for the club's second game out of the break. As such, his odds haven't changed much in either direction. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen still has the shortest odds and is NL leader in WAR (per FanGraphs) at 3.4. A model of consistency and durability, only Logan Webb (15/1) has logged more innings in the Senior Circuit this season. Cubs ace Marcus Stroman — who has seen his name surface in trade rumors — has shot up the board a bit recently, going from as long as 20/1 a week ago to as short as 10/1 this week. Stroman continues his throwback style by pitching to weak contact and limiting damage, seemingly getting better with age. Stroman has long been an effective hurler but has only once finished Top-10 in Cy Young voting. That came when he went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA as a member of the 2017 Blue Jays.
6/27/23: Not much has changed in the Senior Circuit as Zac Gallen has maintained his status as a healthy favorite to win the NL Cy Young. He leads MLB in WAR with 3.4 and has a sterling 2.84 ERA to go along with his 9-2 record across 98 1/3 innings entering Tuesday's start vs. the visiting Rays. Should Gallen stumble even a bit — and a team like Tampa can send hurlers to bad places — future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw may start looking like a viable candidate to take home his fourth career Cy Young trophy. He won the honors three times in a four-year span from 2011-2014 and finished no worse than fifth in voting in seven consecutive years. Whether due to injury or the beginning of a perceived career twilight, Kershaw hasn't been in the running in recent campaigns. Finally, after a pair of disastrous outings against the Mets and Tigers where he allowed 13 earned runs and five home runs over nine innings, Spencer Strider has righted the ship once more. He's allowed just two earned runs while striking out 19 over 13 innings in his most recent two outings, including a seven-inning dismantling of the Twins on Monday night. If his brief struggles were a mere blip, Strider could push Gallen and Kershaw down the home stretch.
6/19/23: The NL push for the Cy Young was once shaping up to be a two-way battle between Spencer Strider and Arizona ace Zac Gallen. But now the former has fallen, while the latter is still surging. Gallen has posted a 2.45 FIP en route to breaking away atop the odds board. He now sits at +170, far ahead of Clayton Kershaw at +600, Zack Wheeler at +700, and Strider at +800. Gallen has incredibly produced five shutouts already in 2023 en route to his 2.96 ERA, which ranks sixth in the NL.
5/30/2023: The AL currently looks like a three-horse race, but in the NL we're looking at two heavy favorites: Atlanta star Spencer Strider and Arizona ace Zac Gallen at +200 and +225.
After burying the Phillies on SNB, Strider leads all the MLB with 106 strikeouts, also leading the NL in WHIP (0.99), OBA (.178), and sitting seventh with a 2.97 ERA. Gallen has an ERA identical to Strider, while ranking fifth in the NL in OBA, sixth in Ks, and third in WHIP.
After those two young stars, we have the ageless wonder Clayton Kershaw tied for third at 12/1 with Pirates righty (yes, that's not a typo) Mitch Keller, who trails only Strider in the NL strikeout race and is third in WHIP.
Rounding out the Top 5 is Philly's Zack Wheeler at +2,000, then there isn't another pitcher shorter than 35/1.
As far as public support, it's been all about Gallen all season long, as he still leads in tickets (19.6%), although Strider now has the majority of the handle (23.1%) at BetMGM.
5/8/2023: Like deGrom in the AL, Marlins ace (and reigning champ) Sandy Alcantara has plummeted from Opening Day favorite to +2,500, while Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer are both now at 40/1.
These slow starts for the original favorites to win the NL Cy Young have paved the way for some young arms to take over the lead, as Atlanta star Spencer Strider, with a 0.93 WHIP and MLB-best 67 Ks in just 40 innings, and Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen (who has a 0.84 WHIP and .199 BA) are co-favorites at +250.
Nobody else is shorter than 10/1, as Strider's teammate Max Fried sits third at +1,000, while Clayton Kershaw made one of the biggest jumps from +3,000 to 14/1, as did Cubs starter Justin Steele, who was at 50/1 about 2+ weeks ago and now is sitting at +2,500.
As far as public support, it's all about Gallen, who leads in tickets (19%) and handle (22.2%) at betMGM.
4/20/2023: Marlins ace (and reigning champ) Sandy Alcantara has had a rough start to the year, with a 5.84 ERA, Corbin Burnes has a 4.76 ERA and is now dealing with a strained pectoral, and Max Scherzer's ERA is up and his K/9 is down. These slow starts for the original favorites to win the NL Cy Young has paved the way for some young arms to take over the lead, as Alcantara is now fourth at 9/1, Scherzer is sixth at 13/1, and Burnes is down to +2,000.
The new favorite is Atlanta star Spencer Strider (+500) after he's posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an MLB-best 36 Ks in 22 innings. After him comes Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias, who is 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA, and Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen, who has an impressive 0.95 WHIP but currently has a 3.33 ERA, both of which are +700 (up from 15/1 and 10/1, respectively).
A few other breakout arms have moved into the upper portion of the Senior Circuit odds board, with Urias' teammate Dustin May, Alcantara's Miami teammate Jesus Luzardo, and Reds lefty Nick Lodolo all now at 20/1 or shorter.
As far as public support, Gallen remains the ticket leader (15.9%) per betMGM, while Strider's 17.2% of the Cy Young handle leads all NL arms.
4/4/2023: Sandy Alcantara and Corbin Burnes remain the favorites in the NL, while a Mets starter is still third — although it's now Max Scherzer, as his Big Apple teammate, Justin Verlander, tumbled from +600 to 14/1.
What's most interesting about the reigning AL Cy Young winner's drop is that he hasn't thrown a pitch yet — Verlander began the season on the IL with a shoulder ailment, so the uncertainty has affected his price.
The big focus from bettors seems to be on Arizona ace Zac Gallen, who went from 15/1 to 11/1 during Spring Training and after one lackluster start (4 2/3 innings, six hits, five runs), moved up to +1,000 — but BetMGM is reporting that he leads the operator with 18.7% of tickets and 21% of overall NL Cy Young betting handle.
3/28/2023: Like the AL, there was no movement at the top of the odds board, although Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen had the most notable move, jumping from 15/1 to 11/1.
The Padres saw their starters slip, as Joe Musgrove, expected to be the No. 2 in San Diego, slid down from 19/1 to 22/1, albeit he's still priced shorter than Yu Darvish, who went from +2,200 to +2,500.
No longer on the board is Mets closer Edwin Diaz, who was 70/1 a month ago but now is out for the season after suffering a torn patellar tendon.
3/2/2023: Reigning NL Cy Young champion Sandy Alcantara opens as the favorite to repeat this year, sitting at +450 to take home the award. The 27-year-old Marlins hurler led the NL in pitcher WAR, innings pitched, and complete games, plus he finished second in ERA, fourth in strikeouts, and fifth in WHIP. Following Alcantara is 2021 Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes at +550, although his future with the Brewers is in question following a rough arbitration hearing, and then a triple-double of NL East arms.
The Mets may have lost deGrom, but they replaced him with reigning AL Cy Young (and three-time overall) winner Justin Verlander, who led the bigs with a 1.75 ERA in 2022 and sits third at +600, just ahead of teammate Max Scherzer, who is fourth at 8/1. After the New York duo come a pair of arms from the ATL, in Braves youngster Spencer Strider (+950) and 2022 runner-up Max Fried (+1,000), while the Phillies' dynamic duo of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler sit at 12/1 each.
Unlike the AL, in which nary a single reliever was even on the early Cy Young odds board, there are two bullpen arms in the running for the Senior Circuit: San Diego Padres southpaw Josh Hader (+6,600), which seems interesting considering he posted a 5.22 ERA last year (7.31 in 19 appearances after being dealt to San Diego), and Mets fireballer Edwin Diaz, who is at +7,000 after posting a 1.31 ERA, 17.1 K/9, and 32 saves last year — plus Diaz has the best reliever intro song since Mariano Rivera.

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Previous Cy Young Award winners

Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL Cy Young Award, with Cleveland and the New York Mets each leading the way with three. Overall, the Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Cy Youngs all time (12), followed by the Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Mets with seven.

Year	American League Winner	National League Winner
2022	Justin Verlander	Sandy Alcantara
2021	Robbie Ray	Corbin Burnes
2020	Shane Bieber	Trevor Bauer
2019	Justin Verlander	Jacob deGrom
2018	Blake Snell	Jacob deGrom
2017	Corey Kluber	Max Scherzer
2016	Rick Porcello	Max Scherzer
2015	Dallas Keuchel	Jake Arrieta
2014	Corey Kluber	Clayton Kershaw
2013	Max Scherzer	Clayton Kershaw
2012	David Price	R.A. Dickey

Pitchers with multiple Cy Young Awards

There are 21 pitchers who have won multiple Cy Young Awards, led by Roger Clemens' seven trophies. Of those 21 winners, five are still currently active in the Majors.

Pitcher	Number of Cy Young Awards (Years)
Roger Clemens	7 (1986, 1987, 1991, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2004)
Randy Johnson	5 (1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002)
Steve Carlton	4 (1972, 1977, 1980, 1982
Greg Maddux	4 (1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
Seven different pitchers	3
10 different pitchers	2

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Understanding Cy Young odds

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Shane Bieber looked to have the AL Cy Young locked up in 2020, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number.

Shane Bieber -300

That means that a bettor in September had to wager $300 to win $100 by betting on Bieber. Before this year's race even began, every candidate had a (+) sign in front of their number.

Jacob deGrom +550

With deGrom's preseason odds, a bettor stands to profit $550 for every $100 wagered on him.

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

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