The MLB trade deadline is quickly approaching, and all has been relatively quiet on that front.
Tarik Skubal may be on the move, as could several other big-ticket arms, which would complicate their already dwindling Cy Young odds. As it stands, those at the top of either league's board are almost certainly staying put with their current team.
Let's look at the latest MLB odds to win the Cy Young awards and make some Cy Young predictions along the way.
Odds to win AL Cy Young award 2026
Jacob deGrom Odds last updated on 7-23. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.
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Odds to win NL Cy Young award 2026
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Jacob Misiorowski |
-163 |
 Cristopher Sanchez |
+614 |
| Zack Wheeler |
+890 |
 Chris Sale |
+920 |
 Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
+1349 |
 Paul Skenes |
+3604 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
+4445 |
Odds as of 7-23.
MLB Cy Young analysis
Dylan Cease and Cam Schlittler both stumbled in their most recent outings, so neither was able to gain any separation in the odds. The problem for the rest of the league is there just isn't anyone rising to meet the challenge.
If we go by fWAR, Schlittler leads the AL with 3.8, and Cease is next at 3.7. Schlittler's 2.20 ERA exceeds Cease's, but Cease has better peripherals across the board in expected ERA, FIP, strikeout rate, you name it (Schlittler limits the walks more frequently, though).
The only other pitchers in the AL with a WAR of 3.0 (and it's exactly that) are Reid Detmers (who will likely be traded) and Davis Martin (who has struggled more lately than he did out of the gate).
Joe Ryan was seen as a potential long shot, but the Guardians just obliterated him to the tune of eight earned runs on 10 hits, including six (!) home runs in just four innings. The six long balls tied an MLB record for most in a single outing.
So barring something crazy, it sure looks like it will be either Cease or Schlittler in the AL. But there's still a ton of baseball left.
The National League is just so much more competitive this year. Jacob Misiorowski and Cristopher Sanchez are 1-2 in WAR (4.6, 4.2), and seven others are at that 3.0 baseline or higher.
The value play might be Zack Wheeler. I know, going against "The Miz" and his 1.57 ERA and explosive fastball is insane, but it's been said that the Brewers will need to get creative to manage what's ballooning into a career-high workload. That at least opens the door to some doubt.
Wheeler had a late start to the season, but he's been nothing short of magnificent, going 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 100 innings. He has allowed more than two runs in just three of his 16 outings and never more than four.
If Misiorowski pitches the rest of the way and doesn't hit any bumps along the way, then yes, he's got it in the bag. But I like Wheeler as a dark horse, even if the odds could stand to be a bit longer.
MLB Cy Young futures predictions
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes |
+200 | May 11 | 2.5 |
 Nolan McLean |
+2500 | May 11 | 0.5 |
 Kevin Gausman |
+4000 | April 20 | 0.25 |
 Eury Perez |
+3500 | March 25 | 0.25 |
| Dylan Cease |
+3000 | March 25 | 0.25 |
 Hunter Greene |
+1400 | February 24 | 0.25 |
 Cole Ragans |
+1300 | February 24 | 0.25 |
Previous Cy Young picks thread
5/11: Skenes/McLean
Since allowing five earned runs in 2/3 of an inning in his season debut, Paul Skenes has arguably been the best starting pitcher in the National League. He's 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings. He has the lowest walk rate of any qualified starter since April 1 and has consistently shown a durability uncommon in today's game. The best time to bet on him would have been after that first start. But now, it's fine to be aggressive. Waiting for another stumble in his game may be a fool's errand. However, if you're looking to balance him out with a longer shot, I like New York Mets rookie Nolan McLean at +2500. His 32% strikeout rate is second among qualified NL starters since April 1, behind just Jacob Misiorowski. I prefer McLean because of the longer odds and the stable poise he brings to the table. The Mets may be a joke, but McLean is a legitimate ace who hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a single start this season.
4/20: Gausman
I'm adding a sprinkle on Kevin Gausman, who is barely shorter than Ragans while drawing the same odds as Garrett Crochet at +4000. Gausman may be a bit older, but he's kicked off his season pitching better than he arguably ever has. He's got a 2.54 ERA (2.42 xERA) with 35 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings. The price is just way off. He's historically durable, having thrown at least 174 innings in five straight seasons, and doesn't hurt himself with walks or the gopher ball.
3/25: Cease/Perez
The Toronto Blue Jays jumped early in the offseason to sign Dylan Cease to a long-term contract, and while he has his share of detractors, this is a fantastic situation for the right-hander. The Blue Jays represent the best defense he's ever played in front of, and that should greatly affect his BABIP and help mitigate his ERA shortcomings. His peripherals have always been great, and despite a 4.55 ERA last year, his 3.56 FIP is encouraging. So is the fact that he's pitched at least 165 innings in five straight seasons. He's durable. And no pitcher has recorded more strikeouts in that time. No one. Toronto and pitching coach Pete Walker have done this before, too. Robbie Ray was always a talented pitcher who couldn't quite piece it all together (though he had some bright seasons with Arizona), and then he put together a Cy Young-winning season with the Blue Jays and parlayed it into a big contract with Seattle. At +3000, Cease is too much of a value play to pass up.On the Senior Circuit, Miami Marlins right-hander Eury Perez has gone from +4500 to +3500, and I'm kicking myself for not taking the plunge sooner, especially after my first pick, Hunter Greene, went down with a long-term injury. Health will be the key, but Perez is an electric arm, and he gets to pitch his home games at pitcher-friendly LoanDepot Park. His fastball is among the best in baseball, averaging close to 98 mph in 2025, and if he takes the expected leap forward in his age-23 season, +3500 is more than a reasonable ask for him to become the second Cy Young winner in Marlins franchise history after Sandy Alcantara.
2/24: Greene/Ragans
Kansas City Royals left-hander Cole Ragans was limited to 61 2/3 innings in 2025, but he was electric when able to take the mound. The 4.67 ERA is unseemly, but that came with a 2.67 expected ERA and a 2.50 FIP. It's reasonable to assume he was a bit unlucky, especially with improvements to his strikeout rate and walk rate. His 30.4% K-BB rate was the best among MLB starters with at least 60 innings pitched last season, and he has a clean bill of health entering spring training. As for Cincinnati Reds righty Hunter Greene, he threw just 107 2/3 innings but was arguably the best version of himself. His 2.76 ERA was just a tick off his 2024 mark, and he posted the best strikeout and walk rates of his career, at 31.4% and 6.2%, respectively. If Greene can roll those improvements into a larger workload, he has the stuff to be there in the home stretch.
Popular MLB futures markets
Previous Cy Young Award winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL Cy Young Award, with Detroit, Cleveland, Houston, Washington, and the New York Mets each leading the way with two. Overall, the Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Cy Youngs all time (12), followed by the Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves with eight and the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Mets with seven apiece.
Previous AL Cy Young winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Tarik Skubal |
| 2024 | Tarik Skubal |
| 2023 |  Gerrit Cole |
| 2022 |  Justin Verlander |
| 2021 | Robbie Ray |
| 2020 |  Shane Bieber |
| 2019 | Justin Verlander |
| 2018 |  Blake Snell |
| 2017 | Corey Kluber |
| 2016 |  Rick Porcello |
Previous NL Cy Young winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Paul Skenes |
| 2024 | Chris Sale |
| 2023 |  Blake Snell |
| 2022 |  Sandy Alcantara |
| 2021 | Corbin Burnes |
| 2020 | Trevor Bauer |
| 2019 | Jacob deGrom |
| 2018 | Jacob deGrom |
| 2017 |  Max Scherzer |
| 2016 | Max Scherzer |
MLB Cy Young Odds
New York Yankees RHP Cam Schlittler is atop the odds board in the American League.
Milwaukee Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski leapfrogged Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez after his most recent dazzling start.
Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal and Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes won the AL and NL Cy Young Awards, respectively.
Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards throughout his career. Only one other pitcher, Randy Johnson, has even won five.
Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal won AL Cy Young in 2024 and 2025 to become the first pitcher since Jacob deGrom won the NL Cy in 2018 and 2019.
Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson are the only pitchers to ever win three straight Cy Young Awards, each accomplishing the feat in four consecutive seasons.
