Dylan Cease blinked first.
The Cy Young odds finally took a hit this week when Cam Schlittler capitalized on Cease's first rough outing in some time, giving the Toronto Blue Jays ace a steep hill to climb with only a few weeks left to play.
Let's look at the latest MLB odds in both Cy Young races as the season begins to wind down.
- Key Takeaways:
- Cease stumbles, Schlittler capitalizes
- Sanchez deserves better
Odds to win AL Cy Young award 2026
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Cam Schlittler |
92% |
 Dylan Cease |
8% |
Odds to win NL Cy Young award 2026
Cristopher SanchezOdds as of 9-9.
MLB Cy Young favorites
Cam Schlittler, Yankees (92%)
There you have it, folks.
Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Dylan Cease allowed five runs (four earned) in five innings while dealing with diminished fastball velocity against the A's in his most recent start. It was the first time he's surrendered more than three earned runs in an outing since late June and only the fourth time all year.
While pitching in Sacramento is no pitcher's preference, he had simply no margin for error, especially as he was already the slight underdog in the AL Cy Young race.
Not so slight now.
Cam Schlittler allowed one run on three hits with 10 strikeouts over seven innings against the Rockies on Tuesday. He issued zero walks for the second straight game after giving away five free passes in an outing against Boston in late August.
He is now 13-6 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 178 2/3 innings. He's a true ace, and he'll probably win the AL Cy Young Award in his first full MLB season.
Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (87%)
Jacob Misiorowski rebounded against the Cubs in his most recent start, allowing one earned run on four hits while striking out nine in 6 1/3 innings. That came six days after getting chased by Chicago after just four innings.
Overall, Misiorowski is 14-5 with a 1.95 ERA in 161 1/3 innings across 27 starts and has a commanding lead in the odds.
Players to watch
Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez leads the National League with 5.9 fWAR.
While Misiorowski has perhaps been more impressive on a per-inning basis, Sanchez vastly clears him in volume. The southpaw has thrown 181 1/3 innings over 29 starts and will be going again tonight. The kid gloves are off, and he's arguably the most reliable hurler on the Senior Circuit when you factor in workload.
Will it be enough to eclipse "The Miz"? Probably not, but there is a viable argument for why he may be as or more deserving.
MLB Cy Young futures predictions
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 Paul Skenes |
33.33% | May 11 | 2.5 |
 Nolan McLean |
3.85% | May 11 | 0.5 |
| Kevin Gausman |
2.44% | April 20 | 0.25 |
 Eury Perez |
2.78% | March 25 | 0.25 |
| Dylan Cease |
3.23% | March 25 | 0.25 |
 Hunter Greene |
6.67% | February 24 | 0.25 |
 Cole Ragans |
7.14% | February 24 | 0.25 |
Previous Cy Young picks thread
5/11: Skenes/McLean
Since allowing five earned runs in 2/3 of an inning in his season debut, Paul Skenes has arguably been the best starting pitcher in the National League. He's 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings. He has the lowest walk rate of any qualified starter since April 1 and has consistently shown a durability uncommon in today's game. The best time to bet on him would have been after that first start. But now, it's fine to be aggressive. Waiting for another stumble in his game may be a fool's errand. However, if you're looking to balance him out with a longer shot, I like New York Mets rookie Nolan McLean. His 32% strikeout rate is second among qualified NL starters since April 1, behind just Jacob Misiorowski. I prefer McLean because of the longer odds and the stable poise he brings to the table. The Mets may be a joke, but McLean is a legitimate ace who hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a single start this season.
4/20: Gausman
I'm adding a sprinkle on Kevin Gausman, who is barely shorter than Ragans while drawing the same odds as Garrett Crochet. Gausman may be a bit older, but he's kicked off his season pitching better than he arguably ever has. He's got a 2.54 ERA (2.42 xERA) with 35 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings. The price is just way off. He's historically durable, having thrown at least 174 innings in five straight seasons, and doesn't hurt himself with walks or the gopher ball.
3/25: Cease/Perez
The Toronto Blue Jays jumped early in the offseason to sign Dylan Cease to a long-term contract, and while he has his share of detractors, this is a fantastic situation for the right-hander. The Blue Jays represent the best defense he's ever played in front of, and that should greatly affect his BABIP and help mitigate his ERA shortcomings. His peripherals have always been great, and despite a 4.55 ERA last year, his 3.56 FIP is encouraging. So is the fact that he's pitched at least 165 innings in five straight seasons. He's durable. And no pitcher has recorded more strikeouts in that time. No one. Toronto and pitching coach Pete Walker have done this before, too. Robbie Ray was always a talented pitcher who couldn't quite piece it all together (though he had some bright seasons with Arizona), and then he put together a Cy Young-winning season with the Blue Jays and parlayed it into a big contract with Seattle. Health will be the key, but Perez is an electric arm, and he gets to pitch his home games at pitcher-friendly LoanDepot Park. His fastball is among the best in baseball, averaging close to 98 mph in 2025, and if he takes the expected leap forward in his age-23 season.
2/24: Greene/Ragans
Kansas City Royals left-hander Cole Ragans was limited to 61 2/3 innings in 2025, but he was electric when able to take the mound. The 4.67 ERA is unseemly, but that came with a 2.67 expected ERA and a 2.50 FIP. It's reasonable to assume he was a bit unlucky, especially with improvements to his strikeout rate and walk rate. His 30.4% K-BB rate was the best among MLB starters with at least 60 innings pitched last season, and he has a clean bill of health entering spring training. As for Cincinnati Reds righty Hunter Greene, he threw just 107 2/3 innings but was arguably the best version of himself. His 2.76 ERA was just a tick off his 2024 mark, and he posted the best strikeout and walk rates of his career, at 31.4% and 6.2%, respectively. If Greene can roll those improvements into a larger workload, he has the stuff to be there in the home stretch.
Popular MLB futures markets
Previous Cy Young Award winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL Cy Young Award, with Detroit, Cleveland, Houston, Washington, and the New York Mets each leading the way with two. Overall, the Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Cy Youngs all time (12), followed by the Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves with eight and the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Mets with seven apiece.
Previous AL Cy Young winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Tarik Skubal |
| 2024 | Tarik Skubal |
| 2023 | Gerrit Cole |
| 2022 |  Justin Verlander |
| 2021 | Robbie Ray |
| 2020 |  Shane Bieber |
| 2019 | Justin Verlander |
| 2018 |  Blake Snell |
| 2017 | Corey Kluber |
| 2016 |  Rick Porcello |
Previous NL Cy Young winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Paul Skenes |
| 2024 |  Chris Sale |
| 2023 |  Blake Snell |
| 2022 |  Sandy Alcantara |
| 2021 |  Corbin Burnes |
| 2020 | Trevor Bauer |
| 2019 | Jacob deGrom |
| 2018 | Jacob deGrom |
| 2017 |  Max Scherzer |
| 2016 | Max Scherzer |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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MLB Cy Young Odds
New York Yankees RHP Cam Schlittler is atop the odds board in the American League.
Milwaukee Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski leapfrogged Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez after his most recent dazzling start.
Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal and Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes won the AL and NL Cy Young Awards, respectively.
Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards throughout his career. Only one other pitcher, Randy Johnson, has even won five.
Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal won AL Cy Young in 2024 and 2025 to become the first pitcher since Jacob deGrom won the NL Cy in 2018 and 2019.
Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson are the only pitchers to ever win three straight Cy Young Awards, each accomplishing the feat in four consecutive seasons.
