2025 Cy Young Odds: Pirates Wasting Skenes' Cy-Caliber Performance

Amid a potentially historic season, Tarik Skubal is atop the AL Cy Young odds board.

Meanwhile, Paul Skenes is mopping the floor with the NL...but has a losing record to show for it.

My MLB odds analysis will highlight their seasons to date while also looking at the overall Cy Young odds.

Odds to win AL Cy Young award 2025

Player
Tarik Skubal	-175	-190	-190
Max Fried	+800	+800	+850
Garrett Crochet	+850	+1200	+1000
Hunter Brown	+850	+800	+850
Jacob deGrom	+900	+1000	+900
Kris Bubic	+2000	+2500	+2200
Nathan Eovaldi	+4000	+5000	+4000
Carlos Rodon	+4000	+3000	+3300
Bryan Woo	+5000	+4000	+4500
Framber Valdez	+6500	+7000	+6500
Joe Ryan	+7000	+7000	+6500
Cole Ragans	+8000	+13000	+8000
Drew Rasmussen	+8000	+10000	+7500
Logan Gilbert	+8000	+15000	+10000

Odds as of 6-9-2025.

AL Cy Young odds analysis

Tarik Skubal is potentially having one of the most efficient pitching seasons we've seen. By now, his 94-pitch complete-game shutout that ended with a 103-mph fastball for his 13th strikeout of the game has become common knowledge among baseball heads. But for as impressive as that showing was in a vacuum, his overall performance has been nothing short of brilliant.

Tarik Skubal has gone 6-0 with a 1.61 ERA (13 ER in 72.2 IP) and 95 strikeouts / 3 walks across his last 11 starts 🤯 pic.twitter.com/DRsRAad3YL

— MLB (@MLB) June 7, 2025

His 0.76 walks per nine innings is incredible. Only two pitchers since the year 2000 have finished a season with a lower number (2005 Carlos Silva and 2014 Phil Hughes). Combine that with his 11.34 strikeouts per nine innings, and we're really cooking with special gas.

No pitcher since 2000 has posted a season with a BB/9 below 1.15 and a K/9 above 9.00. Skubal could do just that. His 31.2% K-BB rate currently ranks fourth in that same timeline. 

This is an all-time great season in the making, and the odds are only starting to reflect it. 

Odds to win NL Cy Young award 2025

Player
Paul Skenes	-180	-185	-180
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	+450	+500	+500
Zack Wheeler	+900	+1000	+1000
Logan Webb	+1400	+1500	+1400
Chris Sale	+2000	+1800	+1800
Robbie Ray	+2500	+3500	+2800
Cristopher Sanchez	+3000	+3500	+3000
MacKenzie Gore	+3500	+3500	+3300
Freddy Peralta	+3500	+3500	+3300
Kodai Senga	+4000	+4500	+4000
Spencer Schwellenbach	+5500	+6500	+5000
Hunter Greene	+6000	+7500	+6000
Nick Pivetta	+8000	+8000	+8000
Sonny Gray	+8000	+8000	+8000
Michael King	+8000	+10000	+8000
Jesus Luzardo	+8000	+7500	+7000

Odds as of 6-9-2025.

NL Cy Young analysis

I think most reasonable people can agree that a pitcher's win-loss record is not an especially valuable way to measure success. Too many variables related to the offense affect those outcomes. Nevertheless, historically, winning 20+ games in a season has often been used as a benchmark.

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes will not win 20 games this season. Despite a 1.88 ERA, Skenes has a 4-6 record. He's allowed one or zero earned runs in six consecutive starts and has a 1-2 record to show for it in that span. 

And while we've come close on a couple of occasions, no starting pitcher has ever won the Cy Young with a losing record. Jacob deGrom went 10-9 and 11-8 in his two Cy-winning campaigns while Felix Hernandez went 13-12 in 2010 when he claimed the honor.

The Pirates are beyond shameful. When the Houston Astros tanked for ages, they came out the other end with enough high-end talent that it translated into a long run as one of baseball's best. That's not happening in Pittsburgh because while the Buccos have fallen into the best pitcher in a generation, they've fumbled everything else.

Skenes has failed to complete the sixth inning twice in 14 starts this season and has allowed more than two earned runs only twice. He's the man. He'll win the Cy Young, maybe multiple with Pittsburgh, and then get traded as the Pirates continue flailing and failing to address their many glaring problems.

Cy Young betting splits

AL Cy Young

Highest Ticket%

• Tarik Skubal, Tigers - 11%
• Max Fried, Yankees - 8.9%
• Cole Ragans, Royals - 8.3%

Highest Handle%

• Tarik Skubal, Tigers - 23.5%
• Max Fried, Yankees - 13.2%
• Garrett Crochet, Red Sox - 8.6%

Biggest Liability

• Max Fried, Yankees

NL Cy Young

Highest Ticket%

• Zack Wheeler, Phillies - 10.4%
• Paul Skenes, Pirates - 10.3%
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers - 8.6%

Highest Handle%

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers - 14.1%
• Paul Skenes, Pirates - 13.1%
• Zack Wheeler, Phillies - 10.3%

Biggest Liability

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers

Data courtesy of BetMGM.

Previous Cy Young Award winners

Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL Cy Young Award, with Cleveland and the New York Mets each leading the way with three. Overall, the Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Cy Youngs all time (12), followed by the Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves with eight and the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Mets with seven apiece.

Previous AL Cy Young winners

Year	American League Winner
2024	Tarik Skubal
2023	Gerrit Cole
2022	Justin Verlander
2021	Robbie Ray
2020	Shane Bieber
2019	Justin Verlander
2018	Blake Snell
2017	Corey Kluber
2016	Rick Porcello
2015	Dallas Keuchel

Previous NL Cy Young winners

Year	National League Winner
2024	Chris Sale
2023	Blake Snell
2022	Sandy Alcantara
2021	Corbin Burnes
2020	Trevor Bauer
2019	Jacob deGrom
2018	Jacob deGrom
2017	Max Scherzer
2016	Max Scherzer
2015	Jake Arrieta

Pitchers with multiple Cy Young awards

Twenty-two pitchers have won multiple Cy Young Awards, led by Roger Clemens' seven trophies. Of those 22 winners, five are still active in the majors.

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