2025 Cy Young Odds: Is Skubal Breaking Away?

Tarik Skubal had a bit of a hiccup to open the season but he's been virtually unhittable for six starts and looks to be pulling away in the AL Cy Young race.

Jason Wilson - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Jason Wilson • Publishing Editor
May 13, 2025 • 10:11 ET • 7 min read
Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers MLB
Photo By - IMAGN Images. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has found a groove on the bump.

Tarik Skubal is pitching so well that it is getting increasingly difficult for his peers to keep pace.

He sits atop the MLB odds to win the AL Cy Young. Three others are drawing odds at 6/1 or shorter, but the gap seems to be widening.

Let's take a look at the Cy Young odds board as the contenders are starting to take shape. 

Odds to win AL Cy Young award 2025

Player DraftKings FanDuel bet365
Tigers Tarik Skubal +180 +160 +180
Red Sox Garrett Crochet +380 +450 +400
Astros Hunter Brown +550 +550 +550
Yankees Max Fried +600 +550 +550
Rangers Nathan Eovaldi  +1400 +1400 +1200
Rangers Jacob deGrom  +1600 +1800 +1600
Royals Cole Ragans +2000 +2000 +2000
Twins Pablo Lopez +3500 +4000 +3500
Astros Framber Valdez  +4000 +6000 +4000
Mariners Bryan Woo +4500 +4000 +4000
Twins Joe Ryan  +5500 +6000 +6000
Rangers Tyler Mahle +5500 +6000 +5000
Yankees Carlos Rodon +6500 +5000 +6000
Royals Kris Bubic  +6500 +5000 +6000
Mariners Logan Gilbert +6500 +7000 +6000

Odds as of 5-13-2025.

AL Cy Young odds analysis

Is Tarik Skubal pulling away? In his second start of the season, the Detroit Tigers ace issued three walks over 5 2/3 innings and allowed three earned runs. Well, that blip in command seems to be in the past.

One walk in 37 innings. Oh, and he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in all six starts, surrendering ZERO on three occasions. He has a 0.97 ERA with 50 strikeouts in that time. 

And it's not like Garrett Crochet has been bad! After allowing four runs over five innings to the Mariners in late April, he's surrendered four earned runs in his last 19 innings. It's just not Skubal.

But we can't ignore Hunter BrownMax Fried, or Nathan Eovaldi, all of whom have ERAs below 2.00. Brown leads all MLB pitchers in FanGraphs WAR (2.1). Eovaldi is next at 1.9 (same as Skubal) and has truly dialed in his command. Eovaldi hasn't issued a ton of walks in recent years, but he's found a new level of pinpoint accuracy in 2025, leading MLB with a minuscule 2.4% walk rate.

Fried's WAR is 1.3, which New York Yankees fans may point to as evidence of the metric's failings considering he is 6-0 with a 1.05 ERA. He overperforms his FIP fairly regularly, though, and I think we can take the low-ish WAR with a grain of salt. Fried limits damage and has had a sparkling start to his Yankees career even if some regression is coming.

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Odds to win NL Cy Young award 2025

Player DraftKings FanDuel bet365
Pirates Paul Skenes +275 +280 +275
Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto +310 +360 +325
Reds Hunter Greene +650 +1100 +650
Phillies Zack Wheeler  +700 +550 +700
Giants Logan Webb +1000 +1200 +1100
Padres Michael King  +1500 +1500 +1500
Mets Kodai Senga  +2000 +2000 +2000
Phillies Jesus Luzardo  +2000 +2500 +2200
Phillies Cristopher Sanchez  +2500 +4000 +3300
Brewers Freddy Peralta  +3000 +2500 +2800
Mets Clay Holmes +3500 +10000 +6000
Braves Spencer Schwellenbach +3500 +3600 +3500
Nationals MacKenzie Gore +4000 +4000 +4000
Padres Nick Pivetta  +4000 +3600 +4000
Giants Robbie Ray +4500 +7000 +6000
Padres Dylan Cease  +4500 +12000 +5000
Braves Chris Sale   +5500 +7000 +5000
Cardinals Sonny Gray +6500 +8000 +6000

Odds as of 5-13-2025.

NL Cy Young analysis

You can quibble with WAR, but it is an effective shorthand, especially when ERA doesn't tell the whole story. Zack Wheeler and Logan Webb each have relatively high ERAs compared to some of the eye-popping numbers exhibited by their peers.

Wheeler had a rough two-start stretch where he allowed nine earned runs over 11 1/3 innings in early April. In five starts since, he's allowed eight runs in 33 2/3 innings (2.14 ERA), finishing six innings each time, culminating with a seven-shutout-inning performance against the Guardians.

He's made adjustments.

Webb has one bad start, two middling outings, and six where he's allowed two or fewer runs while pitching at least six innings. If Webb made all his starts at Oracle Park, he'd win this in a walk.

The reason I wanted to highlight these two veteran right-handers is that they lead the NL in innings pitched and can be expected to be there at season's end. These guys provide length in an era where that has been less and less common.

Now, Paul Skenes is third in IP because he's finished six innings in seven of his nine starts and seems to be the newest member of that class of hurler. 

Cy Young betting splits

AL Cy Young

Highest Ticket%

  • Garrett Crochet, Red Sox - 9.3%
  • Cole Ragans, Royals - 9.2%
  • Tarik Skubal, Tigers - 8.4%

Highest Handle%

  • Garrett Crochet, Red Sox - 13.5%
  • Tarik Skubal, Tigers - 11.6%
  • Cole Ragans, Royals - 10.1%

Biggest Liability

  • Cole Ragans, Royals

NL Cy Young

Highest Ticket%

  • Paul Skenes, Pirates - 10%
  • Zack Wheeler, Phillies - 8.8%
  • Hunter Greene, Reds - 8%

Highest Handle%

  • Paul Skenes, Pirates - 15%
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers - 11.3%
  • Zack Wheeler, Phillies - 7.4%

Biggest Liability

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers

Data courtesy of BetMGM.

Previous Cy Young Award winners

Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL Cy Young Award, with Cleveland and the New York Mets each leading the way with three. Overall, the Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Cy Youngs all time (12), followed by the Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves with eight and the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Mets with seven apiece.

Previous AL Cy Young winners

Year American League Winner
2024 Tigers Tarik Skubal
2023 Yankees Gerrit Cole
2022 Astros Justin Verlander
2021 Blue Jays Robbie Ray
2020 Guardians Shane Bieber
2019 Astros Justin Verlander
2018 Rays Blake Snell
2017 Guardians Corey Kluber
2016 Red Sox Rick Porcello
2015 Astros Dallas Keuchel

Previous NL Cy Young winners

Year National League Winner
2024 Braves Chris Sale
2023 Padres Blake Snell
2022 MarlinsSandy Alcantara
2021 Brewers Corbin Burnes
2020 Reds Trevor Bauer
2019 Mets Jacob deGrom
2018 Mets Jacob deGrom 
2017 Nationals Max Scherzer
2016 Nationals Max Scherzer
2015 Cubs Jake Arrieta

Pitchers with multiple Cy Young awards

Twenty-two pitchers have won multiple Cy Young Awards, led by Roger Clemens' seven trophies. Of those 22 winners, five are still active in the majors.

Pitcher Number of Cy Young Awards (Years)
Roger Clemens 7 (1986, 1987, 1991, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2004)
Randy Johnson 5 (1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002)
Steve Carlton 4 (1972, 1977, 1980, 1982
Greg Maddux 4 (1992, 1993, 1994, 1995)
Seven different pitchers 3
11 different pitchers 2

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MLB Cy Young Odds

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Jason Wilson Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Jason Wilson is an experienced journalist who has worked in a variety of roles within the industry for the past 18 years. Working at community newspapers in New Brunswick, Jason wore many hats as a reporter, editor, and photographer, covering everything from sports to courts to municipal politics. After shifting gears and working as an educator for a few years in the 2010s, Jason returned to full-time work in media as an MLB news editor for six years at theScore in Toronto before joining Covers in late 2021.

He has honed his editorial acumen over his years in the industry, showcasing flexibility, patience, and a strong work ethic. While he was relatively new to sports betting upon joining Covers, Jason has taken the plunge with gusto to learn the ins and outs of the industry, both as a method to improve professionally and to add an extra angle to his sports fandom.

In addition to sports, Jason is an avid film nut and former movie critic who monitors the Academy Awards betting odds for Covers. Jason holds a Bachelor of Arts in journalism degree and a Bachelor of Education degree from St. Thomas University.

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