While Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are pretty definitively favored in their respective leagues, there are some players on the rise.
One player who may push Judge is his New York Yankees teammate, Ben Rice. The first baseman is batting .338/.476/.800 with eight home runs and 18 RBI, with an MLB-best 244 wRC+.
Is it sustainable? Maybe not at that level, but he has been ELITE in most hitting metrics, ranking in the 97th percentile or better in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit%, and walk rate.
As he hasn't soared to the tip-top levels of the MLB odds, Rice may be worth a look in our MLB MVP predictions.
Odds to win 2026 AL MVP
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
+175 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+360 |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
+900 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
+1000 |
 Mike Trout |
+2000 |
 Jose Ramirez |
+2200 |
 Julio Rodriguez |
+2200 |
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
+2200 |
| Ben Rice |
+2500 |
 Nick Kurtz |
+3500 |
 Junior Caminero |
+3500 |
 Corey Seager |
+3500 |
| Cal Raleigh |
+3500 |
| Pete Alonso |
+4000 |
 Roman Anthony |
+5000 |
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Odds last updated on 4-21.
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Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
| Player | |
|---|---|
 Shohei Ohtani |
-350 |
 Ronald Acuña Jr. |
+1400 |
 Corbin Carroll |
+1600 |
 Juan Soto |
+2000 |
 Elly De La Cruz |
+3000 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
+3000 |
| Ketel Marte |
+3500 |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
+3500 |
| Manny Machado |
+4000 |
| Bryce Harper |
+4000 |
| Francisco Lindor |
+4500 |
| Kyle Tucker |
+5000 |
Odds last updated on 4-21.
MLB MVP futures bets
| Bet | Odds | Bet date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout |
+2000 | April 21 | 0.5 |
| Ben Rice |
+2500 | April 21 | 0.5 |
| Gunnar Henderson |
+1500 | March 24 | 0.5 |
| Wyatt Langford |
+4000 | February 25 | 0.25 |
| Jackson Merrill |
+5500 | February 25 | 0.25 |
I don't want to pile too much into the AL MVP market, but I think we can safely assume that Wyatt Langford, barring a superhuman surge, won't be contending for this award. That's fine. He was a bit of a dart throw, anyway. A player with the talent and potential to get there, but we were looking at spring long shots.
You might say jumping on Mike Trout and Ben Rice now is chasing a ghost, but I don't think either one can be discounted as fool's gold. Trout has the history to back it up, and he's simply healthy. I think we need to see an uptick in his batting average for him to be a real contender here, but he's got the second-best walk rate in the AL and has been burned a bit by BABIP.
Rice leads MLB in wRC+ and is in contention for the AL batting title in the early going. His advanced metrics are through the roof, and his offensive numbers are, at least for now, better than Aaron Judge's. If you want to be cautious, wait it out, but you risk the +2500 odds to shorten even more.
One player I'm keeping an eye on is Bobby Witt Jr., and I'm tempted to take him at +900, but I'd like that number to go a bit longer. He has an uphill battle, as he has yet to hit a home run in 23 games and 100 plate appearances, but he is slashing .287/.370/.356 and has borderline elite batted-ball metrics. It just hasn't resulted in the ball going over the fence yet.
As for the National League, I'm not putting any units on anyone unless Shohei Ohtani implodes. He's already -350, and that might be light.
Previous MVP picks thread
3/24: Henderson
Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson won AL Rookie of the Year in 2023, establishing himself as one of baseball's brightest young stars. He then finished fourth in MVP voting in 2024 after hitting .281/.364/.893 with 37 home runs and 92 RBI. Injuries slowed his start in 2025, and his stat line was disappointing relative to what had preceded it, but he still hit .274 with 17 homers in 154 games. While his power was sapped by a shoulder impingement for much of the year, he leaned into his wheels, stealing 30 bases. Fully healthy, we could be looking at a 30-30 season as a baseline. I'm putting half a unit on him at +1500, which is only a touch shorter than the +1600 it was earlier in the month. A hot start, and that number flies out the window.
2/25: Langford + Merrill
Wyatt Langford is a legitimate five-tool talent, not unlike Boston Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony. The difference is Anthony is +1700 entering his second season (first full year), while Langford is +4000 entering his third. I expect Langford to take strides in his strikeout rate, which was a high but not catastrophic 26.4% last season. He doesn't have a history of high K%, and we shouldn't expect it to be the norm now.
Langford also rips the shit out of the ball. He ranked in the 87th percentile in barrel rate, 82nd in average exit velocity, 81st in hard-hit rate, and 90th in walk rate. He has patience and makes good, hard contact with consistency. He also plays strong outfield defense and was in the 88th percentile in sprint speed. A 40-40 season isn't the craziest outcome to consider.
On the National League side of things, San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill was just shy of winning Rookie of the Year in 2024, and expectations were sky-high. But injuries limited him to 115 games, and he stole only one base after swiping 16 as a rookie. He also saw his strikeout rate spike from 17% to 22.4%. As with Langford, we can anticipate positive regression based on past performance in the minors.
He was still an above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 3.0 FanGraphs WAR), but it was a step down. His expected slugging was still in the 86th percentile, and he lifts the ball at an elite level, rarely hitting grounders. If he can push his hard-hit rate and exit velocity back to where they generally sat in 2024, a much better outcome is in the cards.
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Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won MVP awards in both leagues.
Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven)
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Aaron Judge |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 | Mookie Betts |
| 2017 | Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2023 | Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 | Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 |  Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
Popular MLB futures markets
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MLB MVP odds explained
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Goldschmidt ran away with the MVP award in 2022 his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number for a large part of the season.
- Paul Goldschmidt -6000
That means that a bettor in August had to wager $6,000 to win $100 by betting on Goldy to win MVP. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.
- Shohei Ohtani +200
That means a bettor would have profited $200 for a $100 wager on Ohtani before the season started.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
MLB MVP FAQ
New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge is currently leading the pack at +180.
Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani is the betting favorite (-235) to win NL MVP.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.
