Exiting the All-Star break, Aaron Judge still tops the MLB odds board to win AL MVP. On the Senior Circuit, Shohei Ohtani is in a similar spot as both races look plenty chalky.
Let's look at the latest AL and NL MVP odds.
Odds to win AL MVP 2024
| Player |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
-350 | -430 | -400 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
+400 | +600 | +450 |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
+1,000 | +750 | +1,000 |
| Juan Soto |
+1,500 | +1,700 | +1,600 |
 Jose Ramirez |
+7,000 | +15,000 | +8,000 |
 Jarren Duran |
+8,000 | +18,000 | +15,000 |
AL MVP odds analysis
7/23/2024: Aaron Judge is borderline untouchable at this point. There is a lot of time left, and this race isn't officially in the books, but it will take a prolonged cold spell and/or injury for him to tumble.
An interesting name suddenly appearing near the top of the would-be contenders is Jarren Duran, who has quietly established himself as a star with the Boston Red Sox. He made headlines by winning the All-Star Game MVP last week thanks to a two-run home run that was the deciding factor. But the 27-year-old has been something of a late bloomer or post-hype sleeper, finally coming into his own after some false starts. He's hitting .288/.347/.500 with 12 home runs, 22 stolen bases, an AL-leading 30 doubles, and an MLB-leading 11 triples. He likely won't be in the conversation to actually topple Judge, but he should get down-ballot votes if he can sustain this production through the season's final two months.
Previous AL MVP odds analysis
7/15/2024: By FanGraphs' metric, Aaron Judge has been worth 6.3 WAR through 96 games. By extrapolating his numbers across a full season, this would easily be his second-best campaign, potentially only missing his 2022 MVP effort. That season, he hit 62 home runs while slashing .311/425/.686. This year, he's got 34 home runs with a .306/.433/.679 slash line. This is to say, he could be en route to a career-best year at age 32 after showing some signs of lingering injuries. While it's tempting to look for value down the board — like I did last week with Gunnar Henderson — Judge is the man unless he misses a significant amount of time due to injury.
7/8/2024: I think this should be a closer race than it looks on the board. Aaron Judge is having an incredible season, slashing .308/.425/.680 with 32 home runs and 83 RBI in 90 games. But Gunnar Henderson has followed up his Rookie of the Year campaign by performing at an elite level on both sides of the ball. He's got 27 homers and 14 stolen bases while slashing .293/.384/.604. While the offensive numbers — minus speed — pale a bit in comparison to Judge, Henderson's been a rock-solid defender at shortstop. He might not win the Gold Glove (that will almost certainly belong to Bobby Witt Jr.) but he's more than held his own. And what happens if the Baltimore Orioles win the AL East? They lead the division today and Henderson will be a major reason why the O's reach October. Judge is the obvious front-runner and he'd be a deserving winner, but I don't think it's as wrapped up as the odds are starting to suggest.
7/1/2024: Aaron Judge is far and away the favorite to win AL MVP and we're not even at the All-Star break. Whether it's due to injuries or uneven performances, the rest of the league just hasn't been in Judge's...erm...league. If you are bullish on one of his distant challengers, FanDuel looks like the book you'll want as it's offering longer odds for most options compared to DraftKings and bet365. One such wild card is Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who was unbelievable in June and particularly the last week or so. While he hit better in May (.357 batting average), the power simply didn't manifest, which is going to be a problem in the MVP hunt. He swatted eight homers while driving in 25 in June, posting a .962 OPS for the month. He was scratched from Toronto's Canada Day game after being hit on the hand by a Gerrit Cole fastball on Sunday, but X-rays were negative so it might not be a prolonged absence. If Guerrero can keep building on his momentum, his 200/1 odds might look really nice in a few weeks.
6/24/2024: Aaron Judge is inching away with the AL MVP favorite status. A week ago, he was available around even money or longer. Now, he's trading as short as -150. There's no shortage of talent chasing him, but he had such a monstrous May and June (.366/.480/.878 with 22 home runs) that no one is quite there with him. Steven Kwan (+7,500 at Caesars) and his .390 batting average may seem like an interesting play for the upstart Cleveland Guardians, but he's played just 49 games and wouldn't qualify for the batting title if the season ended today because he hasn't been on the field enough. The best value play, though not without risk, might be Kyle Tucker (+12,000 at FanDuel). Tucker is on the injured list with a shin injury that has taken longer to heal than anticipated. However, he was hitting .266/.395/.584 with 19 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 60 games before the injury. The batting average doesn't look special but he's also historically been a better second-half hitter. If he can come back soon, he could make a big run.
6/17/2024: A gap has formed. Aaron Judge is the overall favorite but a few names (Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., and Juan Soto) are still shorter than 10/1. The board then jumps down to Jose Ramirez at 22/1 and then everyone else is +5,000 or longer at most books.
6/10/2024: An elbow injury has kept Juan Soto out of the New York Yankees lineup for the last three games, which is apparently enough for Aaron Judge to become nearly an even-money favorite to win AL MVP. He's obviously deserving of his flowers, but that's a tough number to swallow with more than half a season remaining. Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman had his best offensive game of the season when he went 3-for-5 with a home run and six RBI on Sunday against the Rays. His .306 batting average ranks third in the AL behind fellow MVP candidates Bobby Witt Jr. and the aforementioned Soto. While his WAR trails those names considerably, he's a key cog in Baltimore's machine and is available at a much more appealing 65/1 price.
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Odds to win NL MVP 2024
| Player | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
 Shohei Ohtani |
-400 | -550 | -455 |
 Bryce Harper |
+450 | +440 | +450 |
| Freddie Freeman |
+2,000 | +2,100 | +2,000 |
 Elly De La Cruz |
+3,500 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
 Ketel Marte |
+3,500 | +4,800 | +4,000 |
 Marcell Ozuna |
+4,000 | +3,500 | +2,500 |
 Francisco Lindor |
+5,000 | +6,000 | +5,000 |
| Trea Turner |
+5,000 | +5,500 | +10,000 |
| Alec Bohm |
+6,000 | +10,000 | +9,000 |
 William Contreras |
+7,000 | +9,000 | +7,500 |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
+7,500 | +10,000 | +8,000 |
NL MVP odds analysis
7/23/2024: I have resisted Shohei Ohtani in this market since the very beginning, and even though I missed the boat, I don't regret a thing. His odds were too short even before the season. That's not a judgment call on his talent, but more a frank assessment of precedent. Yes, Ohtani is a unicorn, but that status has largely been due to his ability to pitch and hit. We knew he'd be limited to hitting in 2024 as he recovers from an arm injury and that he also wouldn't play in the field. No pure DH, as I've repeated several times, has ever won an MVP. Even Hall-of-Fame sluggers like David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez topped out at second and third, respectively, in MVP voting. And entering the season, Ohtani was drawing the shortest odds. That's too much risk, and until Mookie Betts' injury, it looked like I might have been right. Betts slashed .304/.405/.488 with 10 home runs and nine stolen bases in 72 games while playing shortstop for the first time. Ohtani has turned it on at the plate and will likely win his first NL MVP, but it was never without risk.
Previous NL MVP odds analysis
7/15/2024: Shohei Ohtani leads the NL in FanGraphs WAR at 5.2. Now, before the anti-analytics crowd gets all huffy, this is actually pretty significant. FanGraphs WAR typically punishes DH types because of their lack of defense (and it does in Ohtani's case). But Ohtani has been so good offensively that it hasn't really mattered. He's slashing .316/.400/.635 with 29 home runs and 23 stolen bases, making a 40/40 season possible. He's in the running for the NL Triple Crown, trailing just Christian Yelich in batting average, Marcell Ozuna and Alec Bohm in RBI, and no one in long balls. And to appease the old-school crowd a tad, Elly De La Cruz shows why WAR can't necessarily be used to predict the MVP. The Cincinnati Reds superstar is second in the NL in WAR but not among the Top 5 in odds at any book, trading between +3,500 at DraftKings to +4,000 at bet365 to +7,000 at FanDuel.
7/8/2024: Shohei Ohtani is in the running to win the NL Triple Crown. He ranks second in batting average (.314), first in home runs (28), and third in RBI (65). So even though he's been relegated to hitting duties this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers DH has made the most of it, and a Triple-Crown victory would help boost his chances at being the first pure DH to win the honors.
7/1/2024: As with the AL, the NL MVP odds are getting a bit stale. Mookie Betts was running away with it before his injury but now that he's sidelined indefinitely, it's looking less and less likely that teammate Shohei Ohtani will be challenged. It will be a nice piece of history if he becomes the first full-time DH to win an MVP. Last week, we highlighted Fernando Tatis Jr. as a potential dark horse. He almost immediately landed on the IL with a stress reaction in his femur. So it goes. Likewise, Bryce Harper landed on the IL. Unlike Tatis, Harper's hamstring injury is believed to be mild and he could be back before the All-Star break. It might be worth waiting a few days to see if he drifts to +1,000 before hammering away.
6/24/2024: As expected, Mookie Betts fell even further after it was revealed that he is expected to miss six to eight weeks after breaking his hand on a hit-by-pitch. There is no number worth taking the plunge on him now as he might not be back until August. If, like me, you still have reservations about whether or not a full-time DH will be given the award, then Fernando Tatis Jr. is your man. He's batting .365 with five home runs in June and slashing .308/.373/.489 since the beginning of May. The Padres might need to make a run at a playoff spot, though, for this to gain extra momentum.
6/17/2024: Mookie Betts will miss an uncertain amount of time after fracturing his hand on a hit-by-pitch on Sunday. While it hasn't technically removed him from contention in the NL MVP odds race, his chances of winning a second trophy are extremely unlikely. A generous timeline could help matters but it's an uphill battle. His Dodgers teammate Shohei Ohtani is now the betting favorite across the board. Fernando Tatis Jr. could continue to rise. He was available as long as 25/1 last week and the best number today is 10/1. Tatis is slashing .272/.348/.459 for the season but he's come alive since the beginning of May, batting .298 with seven home runs and 18 RBI over 186 plate appearances in that span, and that's including his current 1-for-15 stretch over his last four games.
6/10/2024: It's a three-headed race atop the NL MVP odds board with two Los Angeles Dodgers (Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani) and the Philadelphia Phillies' Bryce Harper jockeying for position. I'm most intrigued by Harper at the moment as his production continues to surge. He's now batting .317/.424/.592 with nine home runs and 27 RBI since May 1. With the Phillies boasting the best record in the NL, he should probably be closer to Mookie than he currently is.
6/3/2024: Bryce Harper has seen a similar jump in his numbers to Ramirez over the last month. Since May 1, he's hitting .308/.402/.587 with eight home runs in 122 plate appearances. A two-time NL MVP already, his rise has coincided with the Philadelphia Phillies' surge through the standings en route to the best record in baseball. Mookie Betts will be a tough act to follow but Harper doesn't have as steep a hill to climb as some of the others further down the list.
5/27/2024: Injuries suck. Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his left ACL on Sunday, ending his 2024 season prematurely and robbing baseball fans — especially Atlanta Braves faithful — of one of the game's brightest lights. It was a freak occurrence after Acuna tried to correct himself on the basepaths. And perhaps no one was more devastated by the news than the reigning MVP himself. It's Acuna's second severe knee injury since 2021 when he tore his right ACL. His return to top form was a lengthy process, not quite looking like himself in 2022. As injuries pile up, it's easy to wonder what might have been had they never occurred. Knees, in particular, are essential to the style of offense Acuna is known for. He stole 73 bases in 2023! And while his power numbers weren't living up to his reputation this year, he had already swiped 16 bags. Here's hoping Acuna can return next year in full health and be the thrilling player we've all fallen for since his rookie campaign in 2018.
5/20/2024: It doesn't look like FanDuel is all that excited about Elly De La Cruz's pursuit of 100 stolen bases. Or, the book doesn't think it'll be enough to wrest MVP from any of the other top contenders. Still, FD's line of 42/1 is way out of step compared to other books ranging between 12/1 and 16/1. As a value proposition, there is an argument to be made for a sprinkle. Elly has 30 stolen bases in 47 games, and that's after going three games without one. Since 1901, only eight players have ever recorded 100 stolen bases in a season, and no one has done it since Vince Coleman in 1987. Also rising the ranks is Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras, who is batting .341/.416/.538 with seven home runs in 46 games. Some books are offering him shorter than 10/1 as the Brewers continue to outperform expectations.
5/13/2024: I could spend every week singing Mookie Betts' and Shohei Ohtani's praises and it'd be warranted. My initial doubts over Ohtani's chances to win because no DH had ever done it are being quelled as he continues to obliterate every baseball thrown near him. His .352 batting average leads the National League and his 12 homers rank second. A batting title could be in his future and while he has work to do to catch up in RBI, a Triple Crown isn't out of the question. If Ohtani wins the Triple Crown, will it be enough to become the first primary DH to win an MVP? His odds have gone from +600 to shorter than +400 in less than a week, so he's got books thinking it's at least possible.
5/6/2024: Raise your hand if you predicted Alec Bohm to be the driving force behind the Philadelphia Phillies offense. The 27-year-old looks like he's in the midst of a true breakout, slashing .360/430/.576 with four home runs, 13 doubles, and 32 RBI in 35 games. He's riding an 18-game hitting streak and even if power hasn't fully emerged, he's making consistent contact and has upped his walk rate in the process. His odds have also shortened at every book in the wake of his hot streak. His success isn't entirely out of nowhere, either. The Phillies selected Bohm with the third-overall pick in the 2018 draft. Book disparity is often a curious enterprise, and there are some big gaps in the board above. DraftKings, for example, hasn't reacted harshly to Matt Olson's cold start. Meanwhile, FanDuel has him listed at a whopping 100/1. Other books are somewhere in between.
4/29/2024: Mookie Betts is running away with the NL thanks to him being the best player on arguably the best team. Betts is slashing an ungodly .387/.482/.655 with six home runs and an MLB-leading 46 hits and 29 runs. Still, while Betts is pacing the field, Cincinnati Reds infielder Elly De La Cruz has soared from a high of +5,000 at our last update to no longer than +1,500. The electric 22-year-old is slashing .281/.395/.573 with a whopping 18 stolen bases in 28 games. Brice Turang is second in MLB with 13 swiped bags. He's already stolen three bases in two individual games and has eight since our last update. If he gets on base, he's stealing second, as evidenced by the game last week where he recorded two stolen bases without nabbing a hit against the Texas Rangers.
4/22/2024: The National League appears to belong to Mookie Betts. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been uneven, but Betts has been clockwork. He posted a five-hit game against the Washington Nationals last week and is still batting .355 with a .469 OBP. He is listed at +250 across the board.
4/15/2024: We don't need to go long on how Mookie Betts is the odds leader for NL MVP. He's incredible, plays for the team with the best World Series odds, and has a long enough track record to expect his high level of play at the plate AND in the field to continue. While some books shortened Fernando Tatis Jr.'s odds to win MVP already, there were still some books offering longer than 10/1 even a week ago. Those are gone, with the best odds being around +950. He's slashing .290/.364/.536 with five home runs in 18 games. If the San Diego Padres are going to survive in a post-Juan Soto world, Tatis will have to be a key contributor.
4/8/2024: Mookie Betts might be the betting favorite for NL MVP for quite a while based on how he's started the season. He's as steady a performer as they come and he looks like he's been playing shortstop for far longer than he has (he never played the position in MLB before 2023). Reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. has gotten off to a fairly slow start, batting just .242 with no home runs and only one stolen base on his lone attempt. After going 41/73 in those categories a year ago, it makes sense why his odds haven't fallen off after only eight games. His 13 strikeouts in 37 plate appearances (35.1%) is concerning. The best value play looks like Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz, at least until FanDuel (+5,500) catches up with other books. But, it's worth asking why might there be doubt. Cruz is still a long shot, especially if/when the Pirates fall off from their encouraging start. Specifically alarming are his strikeout rate (34.1%) and BABIP (.480). He has holes in his approach and he's potentially getting lucky when he can make contact. The talent is there, though, and if the Pirates are legitimate, he'll be a big reason why, but a .333 batting average and .364 on-base percentage with a 4.5% walk rate look unsustainable.
4/3/2024: Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts is on a heater for the ages, coming out 15-for-30 over his first eight games with five homers and 11 RBI. He leads the senior circuit in OPS at 1.772. He's leapfrogged Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves in this race as a result. Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies threw his hat in the ring with a three-homer, six-RBI game on Tuesday, which helped snap an 0-for-15 skid to start the campaign.
3/27/2024: The biggest mover, at least at some books, is Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz, who was not even on our odds board at the last update. The slugging 25-year-old has five-tool talent but is also coming off a fractured fibula that cut his 2023 season short after playing in just nine games. Spring training results don't always hold a lot of water, but Cruz has seven home runs in 49 plate appearances. A very low BABIP in Grapefruit League action could also suggest he should be hitting better than .273. If this translates over to the regular season, Cruz will be in the hunt.
3/18/2024: And just like that, Ronald Acuna Jr. appears poised for Opening Day. He's been playing since his knee flared up and it doesn't look like it will cost him any time or effectiveness. It could mean a couple of DH days are in his future, but not enough to generate concern just yet. Beyond that, there has just been no real odds movement as we await the start of the regular season.
3/4/2024: Some spring injuries are relatively meaningless, with general aches and pains following a lengthy offseason. Others, however, portend more serious ends. Ronald Acuna Jr., who won NL MVP in 2023 and is the early favorite to win it again, is undergoing tests on his right knee. The Atlanta Braves have stated that it's not expected to keep him out for Opening Day, but this is the same leg he injured in 2021 when he tore his ACL. Monitor the situation because if he misses time, or is otherwise hampered, it would affect his chances in this market.
2/29/2024: Cody Bellinger re-signed with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $80-million contract that includes opt-out clauses after each of the first two years. Bellinger — winner of the 2019 award — finished 10th in MVP voting last year, his first season with the Cubs. It was also his best season since his MVP campaign with the Dodgers, as he hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers in 130 games for the Cubbies. He's trading as long as 100/1 and isn't listed at every book yet. DraftKings is a bit of an outlier with a couple of players who are deemed as longshots by other sportsbooks. DK has Elly De La Cruz, Michael Harris, and William Contreras at +4,000 while FD and bet365 have them all between +10,000 and +12,000. So if you plan to throw your hat into that ring, going with the higher odds is the best choice.
2/1/2024: There has been no significant movement in the NL MVP market since our last update. San Diego Padres infielder Manny Machado has seen his odds lengthen at some books, but it's mostly negligible.
1/15/2024: The biggest curiosity remains how books are treating Shohei Ohtani. He could very easily win multiple MVP awards during his Dodgers tenure, but he will be limited to being a designated hitter in 2024 and no traditional DH has ever won the honor. Obviously, there's a first time for nearly everything and Ohtani is a prodigious talent with the bat, but his offensive stats in previous years likely wouldn't have won him the hardware on their own.
1/2/2024: Like in the AL, there has been minimal odds movement on the Senior Circuit board. One minor bit of movement had Corbin Carroll go from 25/1 to 22/1 at FanDuel after other books had him listed at 18/1. Shohei Ohtani was drawing the shortest odds at Caesars but has since drawn even with Ronald Acuna Jr., who is the betting favorite at most books after completing a ridiculous 40/70 campaign in 2023.
12/14/2023: The talk of the town is obviously Shohei Ohtani. The newest addition to the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is one of the most feared hitters in the game. The problem with picking him to win MVP this year, despite having won two of the last three AL trophies, is that he will not pitch. That added layer has been a key reason for his success and why he felt inevitable to win in 2023. No traditional DH has ever won an MVP. Granted, Ohtani's whole MLB experience has been unprecedented, but his odds are skewed either way. Ronald Acuna Jr. is getting the shortest odds at most books to repeat as NL MVP. Were he to pull it off, he'd be the first back-to-back NL MVP winner since Albert Pujols won in 2008 and 2009. Corbin Carroll is worth keeping an eye on. Carroll was unanimously named NL Rookie of the Year in 2023 and was getting some consideration for MVP before Acuna stormed to a 40/70 season and cemented his status. Barring a sophomore slump, Carroll possesses a power-speed combo similar to Acuna, which should continue to blossom.
11/20/2023: Ronald Acuna Jr. became the fifth player in MLB history to hit at least 40 home runs while stealing at least 40 bases. The swiped bags were never in question, as he finished the season with an MLB-leading 73 — making him just the fourth player since 2000 to steal 70+ bases in a season (2009 Jacoby Ellsbury, 2007 Jose Reyes, and 2004 Scott Podsednik being the others). He needed 10 home runs in September to reach 40 on the season. He hit 11. Acuna finished second in the NL batting title race behind Luis Arraez in a truly electric season.
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Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Mike Trout leading the way as a three-time winner. Bryce Harper has won twice with two different teams and Miguel Cabrera was the last player to win back-to-back MVP awards (2012-13). Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven)
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 23 while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2023 |  Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 | Mookie Betts |
| 2017 |  Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
| 2015 |  Josh Donaldson |
| 2014 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 | Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 | Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
| 2015 |  Bryce Harper |
| 2014 | Clayton Kershaw |
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MLB MVP odds explained
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Goldschmidt ran away with the MVP award in 2022 his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number for a large part of the season.
- Paul Goldschmidt -6,000
That means that a bettor in August had to wager $6,000 to win $100 by betting on Goldy to win MVP. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.
- Shohei Ohtani +200
That means a bettor would have profited $200 for a $100 wager on Ohtani before the season started.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
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MLB MVP FAQ
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is favored to win AL MVP in 2024.
Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani is the betting favorite to win NL MVP.
Los Angeles Angels DH/SP Shohei Ohtani won his second AL MVP award in unanimous fashion. Corey Seager finished second in voting.
Atlanta Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr. won the 2023 NL MVP, receiving all 30 first-place votes.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.
