We've made it, baby; the temperatures drop but the stakes couldn't be higher. It's October baseball, and I'm dropping my best White Sox vs. Astros prop picks to get us set before first pitch in Houston (5 p.m. ET).
We're riding with the big bats on both teams to get the job done against inexperienced pitching (Yordan Alvarez, Munetaka Murakami, I'm looking at you).
Let's dive into my MLB picks for Game 1 and fatten our wallets for the rest of the week.
Best White Sox vs Astros props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Munetaka Murakami 2+ total bases |
37% |
 Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases |
48% |
| AJ Blubaugh Under 1.5 strikeouts |
50% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Prop pick #1: Munetaka Murakami 2+ total bases
Munetaka Murakami carries his .825 OPS into October and gets his first taste of playoff baseball today. He'll be going up against opener AJ Blubaugh, who hardly misses any bats (23% K rate). This fits right into Murakami's wheelhouse, with a barrel percentage (20.5%) in the 100th percentile.
It helps that Murakami mashes righties, too, owning a .866 OPS this season against them.
Prop pick #2: Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases
If you're betting this game, it feels like malpractice leaving Yordan Alvarez off your ticket - so we won't. Yes, he'll be going up against a lefty in Hagen Smith, and no, it hasn't seemed to matter for Alvarez, who owned an .825 OPS against southpaws this season.
Capping his September slashing .308/.432/.577 while ending the season with a .308 xBA should give you plenty of reason to back the AL MVP in this one. He's an absolute monster - I'd happily play this to 55%.
More MLB picks today
Prop pick #3: AJ Blubaugh Under 1.5 strikeouts
Blubaugh will be in this game for two innings or less, and hasn't registered more than one strikeout in nine consecutive appearances.
Striking hitters out at just a 23% clip while owning a 4.27 xERA, I'm expecting some loud contact against him this evening. Chicago's offense comes into Game 1 on a tear, too, scoring 25 runs across its last four games.
I'm playing this to 56%.
- Prop picks: 0-0, +0.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
