Priced as 59% favorites with a 6.5-run total, the Milwaukee Brewers enter World Series Game 5 in prime position to close out the title behind starter Jacob Misiorowski as we expect in our Brewers vs. Rays predictions.
Tampa Bay managed to extend its season in a grueling 12-inning victory on Tuesday, but the win drained eight innings from its bullpen and forced projected Game 5 starter Nick Martinez into emergency relief action.
Let's assess where things stand now in my MLB picks for Game 5.
TOP PICK
Brewers vs Rays prediction: Brewers moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Buy the Milwaukee Brewers to 62%. I'm back on them here, as we were a little unfortunate last night.
The Tampa Bay Rays are a tough strikeout matchup. They led MLB in contact rate, and Jacob Misiorowski struck out only three batters in five innings against them during Game 1. But he still held them to one run.
The edge here though is over nine innings. Tampa Bay used seven pitchers Tuesday, with its bullpen covering eight frames. Nick Martinez, who was previously in line to start Game 5, threw two innings. Drew Rasmussen could start on three days of rest, but the Rays enter with no fully rested starter to turn to now.
Milwaukee trots out Misiorowski on four days of rest while Tampa Bay must navigate another game with a stretched-out staff.
Our Neil Parker is eyeing Misiorowski too in his Brewers vs. Rays prop picks.
COVERS INTEL: Tampa Bay’s three freshest relievers are Steven Matz, Cole Sulser and Garrett Cleavinger. They allowed a .342, .321, and .317 xwOBA, respectively, in 2026, all worse than the .316 MLB average.Who will win Brewers vs Rays?
Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee wins Game 5. Tampa Bay’s pitching options are too compromised to make its home-field advantage stand up.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Brewers vs Rays combo
This combo builds around Milwaukee’s first four hitters getting repeated looks at a staff without a fully rested starter. Jackson Chourio leads off, so an early trip through the order gives him a chance to do damage against whoever opens. If the game reaches the middle innings and it's still close, he should face the next pitcher, too.
William Contreras hits fourth and makes enough contact to remain useful, even if Kevin Cash turns to a lefty.
Brewers vs Rays combo
- Brewers moneyline
- Jackson Chourio over 1.5 bases
- William Contreras over 0.5 hits
Brewers vs Rays home run prediction: Jackson Chourio
Chourio’s 12.3% barrel rate and .475 expected slugging percentage are the foundation here, but Tampa Bay’s pitching decisions sharpen the matchup.
If the Rays choose a bullpen game, Steven Matz or Garrett Cleavinger could provide some of the innings they need to cover. Chourio hit .333 with a .575 slugging percentage against lefties this season, including nine home runs in 171 plate appearances.
If Rasmussen starts instead, Chourio still gets the leadoff plate appearances before Cash needs to navigate the bullpen. This is a play on Chourio’s power and his opportunities.
Our Todd Cordell provides other options to go deep tonight in his Brewers vs. Rays home run predictions.
Brewers vs Rays player prop: William Contreras over 1.5 bases
Buy Contreras Over 1.5 total bases to 44%.
Contreras struck out in just 14.7% of his plate appearances this season while producing a .441 expected slugging percentage. That contact profile should be effective against a Rays staff likely to change pitchers several times.
He also hit for nearly the same average against lefties (.272) as righties (.270), limiting what Cash gains when choosing a fresh left-handed reliever for the middle of Milwaukee’s order. If Cleavinger enters, his sinker allowed a .602 expected slugging percentage.
- ML/RL Picks: 59-54, +9.52 units
- Over/Under Picks: 62-44, +20.49 units
Brewers vs Rays weather
Tropicana Field is indoors, so wind and rain won’t affect Game 5.
Brewers vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Brewers 59% | Rays 42%
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 | Rays +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Brewers vs Rays trend
Three of the first four World Series games were one-run affairs. With Tampa Bay’s starter unsettled, the Brewers moneyline leaves room for another close finish without asking Milwaukee to win by multiple runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Rays.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch Brewers vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla. |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA) |
Brewers vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
