The usual suspects (Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt) continue to pace their respective leagues in the MLB Rookie of the Year odds as we move toward the trade deadline.
A new contender may be bubbling up in the National League, though, as Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Esmerlyn Valdez is slugging his way into the Steel City's hearts.
Let's explore the markets and MLB odds for AL and NL Rookie of the Year.
Odds to win 2026 AL Rookie of the Year
| Player |  |
 Kevin McGonigle |
-335 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
+1011 |
 Chase DeLauter |
+1199 |
| Travis Bazzana |
+1900 |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
+2281 |
 Payton Tolle |
+3348 |
Odds last updated on 7-23. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.
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Odds to win 2026 NL Rookie of the Year
| Player | |
 JJ Wetherholt |
-138 |
 Sal Stewart |
+355 |
 Bryce Eldridge |
+446 |
 Nolan McLean |
+900 |
 TJ Rumfield |
+1024 |
| Carson Benge |
+1941 |
Odds as of 7-23.
MLB Rookie of the Year analysis
Esmerlyn Valdez is the hottest hitter in baseball and is putting the National League on notice as a result. Since June 22, the Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder is batting .349 with an MLB-leading .826 slugging percentage. His 231 wRC+ is well above everyone else, and his 11 home runs in that span trail only Junior Caminero.
The two major bugaboos are his strikeout rate (36.8%) and BABIP (.487). No one has a higher BABIP, so while that won't really affect his home runs, he can't be expected to stay a .300 hitter. And the strikeout rate is worrisome in that it suggests that he may have holes in his swing/approach that will eventually be exploited when pitchers know where they can and can't pitch him.
The other issue is he's not available to trade on Polymarket yet. Traditional sportsbooks have him third on the NL board, behind just JJ Wetherholt and Sal Stewart, in a range from around +800 to +1000, depending on the book.
Valdez is potentially giving off Aristides Aquino energy or, more favorably, Rhys Hoskins.
Most home runs in first 32 MLB games:
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 21, 2026
2017 Rhys Hoskins: 16
2018-19 Aristides Aquino: 14
2026 Esmerlyn Valdez: 13
2026 Munetaka Murakami: 13 https://t.co/H2xm65HoTb
Hoskins has been a productive big-leaguer but never fully lived up to his early potential. Aquino's drop-off was far worse, and he hasn't played in MLB since 2022.
A potential silver lining is Valdez has struck out less than 25% of the time in the minors for most of his time in the lower levels, including a 21.5% K-rate at Triple-A this season (56 games). The time to invest is still there, though far less appealing than it may have been earlier. Still, if he can sustain his success a bit longer, it could also lengthen the price on Wetherholt, which would, in turn, make a buyback on his odds viable if you already picked him earlier in the season (for the record, I still think it's the Cardinals' infielder's award to lose and would love to find a reason to double-down at slightly better odds than what's he's got right now).
MLB Rookie of the Year futures predictions
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt |
+370 | May 11 | 1 |
 Andrew Painter |
+3000 | March 24 | 0.25 |
| Carson Benge |
+2000 | March 11 | 0.25 |
 Bubba Chandler |
+1400 | February 25 | 0.25 |
| Chase DeLauter |
+2000 | February 25 | 0.25 |
My National League bets have all floundered to varying degrees, so I'll cut bait and grab St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt for one unit.
I like Nolan McLean at +2500 as a dark horse to win the NL Cy Young, so he's tempting here as a hedge alongside Wetherholt, but I'm going to single out the infielder.
With Sal Stewart scuffling, Wetherholt should have the shortest odds among position players. He's batting leadoff for the Cardinals and is displaying the power-speed combo that had him near the top of draft rankings ahead of 2024 when St. Louis took him seventh overall (an absolute fleecing).
His .250 BABIP also tells me that better days are coming for the .235/.350/.405 slash line. He's also the only qualified position-player rookie worth more than 1.0 fWAR on the Senior Circuit, and some of that comes from his elite glovework at the keystone.
Previous ROY picks thread
3/24: Painter
I can't shake the value of Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter at +3000, so I put .25 units on him, bringing my spring futures tally to one full unit for Rookie of the Year markets. So much can go wrong that I play it fairly conservatively before Opening Day. But Painter had similar hype to Paul Skenes before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. Now, with a full season in the minors under his belt following the surgery, he's opening the season in the Phillies' rotation. And unless things go unfathomably sideways, I like him to stick around instead of Taijuan Walker when Zack Wheeler is healthy. Regardless, I expected the number to move off +3000, and when it didn't, I decided I'd take the plunge.
3/11: Benge
Carson Benge screamed through the minors in 2025, slashing .281/.385/.472 with 15 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 116 games across three levels. Even with a hiccup in Triple-A, I'm not deterred. He struck out just 17.7% of the time compared to a 13.1% walk rate while boasting a 150 wRC+. He basically looks like the next Kyle Tucker.
2/25: Chandler + DeLauter
Bubba Chandler wasn't as highly touted as Skenes, but he wasn't super far off, either. He posted a 1.83 ERA over his first 39 1/3 innings at Triple-A in 2024. Those numbers took a bit of a dive last season, but his first taste of MLB hitting went pretty well. The 4.02 ERA wasn't amazing, but he had a low walk rate, didn't surrender home runs, and had a 2.66 FIP that suggests at least some positive regression. With Griffin taking all the headlines at Pittsburgh Pirates camp, it's perhaps easy to forget that Chandler likely has a rotation spot on Opening Day unless things go all the way sideways this spring. His ace upside is enough to take a flier here.
Chase DeLauter is currently projected to open the season in the Cleveland Guardians outfield. Injuries have slowed his progression a bit, but he is a dangerous hitter, which is exactly what Cleveland needs. He doesn't strike out (15.8% K-rate in 42 minor-league games last year) and has major home run potential from the left side.
Popular MLB futures markets
Past Rookie of the Year winners
Previous AL RoY winners
Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 73 years.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Nick Kurtz (1B) |
| 2024 |  Luis Gil (SP) |
| 2023 |  Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS) |
| 2022 |  Julio Rodriguez (OF) |
| 2021 |  Randy Arozarena (OF) |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis (OF) |
| 2019 |  Yordan Alvarez (OF) |
| 2018 |  Shohei Ohtani (P/OF) |
| 2017 |  Aaron Judge (OF) |
| 2016 | Michael Fulmer (SP) |
Previous NL RoY winners
No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.
However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed six of the last 13 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, a catcher, and even a reliever.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Drake Baldwin (C) |
| 2024 |  Paul Skenes (SP) |
| 2023 |  Corbin Carroll (OF) |
| 2022 | Michael Harris (OF) |
| 2021 | Jonathan India (2B) |
| 2020 |  Devin Williams (RP) |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (1B) |
| 2018 | Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF) |
| 2017 |  Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) |
| 2016 | Cory Seager (SS) |
MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ
Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle is drawing the shortest odds in the American League.
St. Louis Cardinals 2B JJ Wetherholt is the current favorite.
Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz won the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year while Atlanta Braves C Drake Baldwin earned the NL honors.
MLB rules state a player is considered a rookie unless he has 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 total days on an active MLB roster prior to September 1.
