San Francisco Giants slugger Bryce Eldridge is entering the MLB Rookie of the Year odds conversation as a legit threat to JJ Wetherholt in the NL.
Kevin McGonigle is in control on the Junior Circuit, but there's still plenty of time left in the season.
Let's explore the markets and MLB odds for AL and NL Rookie of the Year.
Odds to win 2026 AL Rookie of the Year
| Player |  |
 Kevin McGonigle |
-163 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
+488 |
 Travis Bazzana |
+614 |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
+1251 |
 Colt Emerson |
+1393 |
 Samuel Basallo |
+3233 |
| Trey Yesavage |
+5163 |
 Carter Jensen |
+6567 |
| Chase DeLauter |
+7043 |
 Spencer Jones |
+9900 |
Odds last updated on 6-17. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.
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Odds to win 2026 NL Rookie of the Year
| Player | |
 JJ Wetherholt |
-108 |
 Sal Stewart |
+426 |
 Bryce Eldridge |
+438 |
 Carson Benge |
+694 |
| Nolan McLean |
+1329 |
 Konnor Griffin |
+2122 |
Odds as of 6-9.
MLB Rookie of the Year analysis
As Kevin McGonigle pulls away in the American League, a new challenger is emerging to threaten JJ Wetherholt's grasp atop the NL Rookie of the Year odds board.
San Francisco Giants slugger Bryce Eldridge looks like a completely different player from the one who debuted as a 20-year-old in 2025. The big thing to circle, apart from his five home runs in 32 big-league games this season, is his 20.3% strikeout rate.
The chief concern around Eldridge was always his swing-and-miss. He generally sat around 30% in the minors, and that number doesn't normally go down when a player reaches the big leagues.
His whiff and chase rates look halfway decent, albeit in a small sample, so we'll see if it's sustainable. His contact metrics, though, are exciting, as he absolutely clobbers the ball.
Wetherholt is still the leader in the clubhouse (which is good for my purposes below), but Eldridge can make up ground if the St. Louis Cardinals infielder stumbles. Where Wetherholt maintains an edge, though, is his defense. He's probably the best fielder in this class, and still has room to grow as a hitter (though .259/.362/.402 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases is nothing to stick your nose up at).
MLB Rookie of the Year futures predictions
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt |
+370 | May 11 | 1 |
 Andrew Painter |
+3000 | March 24 | 0.25 |
| Carson Benge |
+2000 | March 11 | 0.25 |
| Bubba Chandler |
+1400 | February 25 | 0.25 |
| Chase DeLauter |
+2000 | February 25 | 0.25 |
My National League bets have all floundered to varying degrees, so I'll cut bait and grab St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt for one unit.
I like Nolan McLean at +2500 as a dark horse to win the NL Cy Young, so he's tempting here as a hedge alongside Wetherholt, but I'm going to single out the infielder.
With Sal Stewart scuffling, Wetherholt should have the shortest odds among position players. He's batting leadoff for the Cardinals and is displaying the power-speed combo that had him near the top of draft rankings ahead of 2024 when St. Louis took him seventh overall (an absolute fleecing).
His .250 BABIP also tells me that better days are coming for the .235/.350/.405 slash line. He's also the only qualified position-player rookie worth more than 1.0 fWAR on the Senior Circuit, and some of that comes from his elite glovework at the keystone.
Previous ROY picks thread
3/24: Painter
I can't shake the value of Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter at +3000, so I put .25 units on him, bringing my spring futures tally to one full unit for Rookie of the Year markets. So much can go wrong that I play it fairly conservatively before Opening Day. But Painter had similar hype to Paul Skenes before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. Now, with a full season in the minors under his belt following the surgery, he's opening the season in the Phillies' rotation. And unless things go unfathomably sideways, I like him to stick around instead of Taijuan Walker when Zack Wheeler is healthy. Regardless, I expected the number to move off +3000, and when it didn't, I decided I'd take the plunge.
3/11: Benge
Carson Benge screamed through the minors in 2025, slashing .281/.385/.472 with 15 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 116 games across three levels. Even with a hiccup in Triple-A, I'm not deterred. He struck out just 17.7% of the time compared to a 13.1% walk rate while boasting a 150 wRC+. He basically looks like the next Kyle Tucker.
2/25: Chandler + DeLauter
Bubba Chandler wasn't as highly touted as Skenes, but he wasn't super far off, either. He posted a 1.83 ERA over his first 39 1/3 innings at Triple-A in 2024. Those numbers took a bit of a dive last season, but his first taste of MLB hitting went pretty well. The 4.02 ERA wasn't amazing, but he had a low walk rate, didn't surrender home runs, and had a 2.66 FIP that suggests at least some positive regression. With Griffin taking all the headlines at Pittsburgh Pirates camp, it's perhaps easy to forget that Chandler likely has a rotation spot on Opening Day unless things go all the way sideways this spring. His ace upside is enough to take a flier here.
Chase DeLauter is currently projected to open the season in the Cleveland Guardians outfield. Injuries have slowed his progression a bit, but he is a dangerous hitter, which is exactly what Cleveland needs. He doesn't strike out (15.8% K-rate in 42 minor-league games last year) and has major home run potential from the left side.
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Past Rookie of the Year winners
Previous AL RoY winners
Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 73 years.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Nick Kurtz (1B) |
| 2024 |  Luis Gil (SP) |
| 2023 | Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS) |
| 2022 | Julio Rodriguez (OF) |
| 2021 |  Randy Arozarena (OF) |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis (OF) |
| 2019 |  Yordan Alvarez (OF) |
| 2018 |  Shohei Ohtani (P/OF) |
| 2017 |  Aaron Judge (OF) |
| 2016 | Michael Fulmer (SP) |
| 2015 | Carlos Correa (SS) |
| 2014 |  Jose Abreau (1B) |
| 2013 | Wil Myers (OF) |
Popular MLB futures markets
Previous NL RoY winners
No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.
However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed six of the last 13 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, a catcher, and even a reliever.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Drake Baldwin (C) |
| 2024 |  Paul Skenes (SP) |
| 2023 |  Corbin Carroll (OF) |
| 2022 | Michael Harris (OF) |
| 2021 | Jonathan India (2B) |
| 2020 |  Devin Williams (RP) |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (1B) |
| 2018 | Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF) |
| 2017 |  Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) |
| 2016 | Cory Seager (SS) |
| 2015 |  Kris Bryant (3B) |
| 2014 | Jacob deGrom (SP) |
| 2013 |  Jose Fernandez (SP) |
MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ
Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle is drawing the shortest odds in the American League.
St. Louis Cardinals 2B JJ Wetherholt is the current favorite.
Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz won the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year while Atlanta Braves C Drake Baldwin earned the NL honors.
MLB rules state a player is considered a rookie unless he has 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 total days on an active MLB roster prior to September 1.
