The MLB Rookie of the Year odds suddenly don't feel so certain with a month left to play.
JJ Wetherholt's trip to the injured list couldn't have worse timing, and Parker Messick is starting to push Kevin McGonigle a bit in the American League.
Let's explore the markets and MLB odds for AL and NL Rookie of the Year.
- Key Takeaways:
- Messick rising at the right time
- Wetherholt's injury hurts his chances
Odds to win 2026 AL Rookie of the Year
Odds last updated on 9-1. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $20 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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Odds to win 2026 NL Rookie of the Year
Bryce EldridgeOdds as of 9-1.
MLB Rookie of the Year favorites
Kevin McGonigle, Tigers (73%)
Detroit Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle has had a fantastic debut season. He's rarely scuffled and is batting .274/.375/.415 with 14 home runs and 84 runs scored, while striking out barely more often than he's walked.
Outside of an early surge where Munetaka Murakami obliterated every baseball in sight before hitting the injured list for an extended spell, this has looked like McGonigle's award to lose.
Sal Stewart, Reds (82%)
St. Louis Cardinals infielder JJ Wetherholt was placed on the injured list this weekend with wrist inflammation, and it may have cost him the NL Rookie of the Year award.
He had built a sizable enough lead in the odds, but he also needed to thread the needle perfectly, and this injury doesn't help.
Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart leads MLB with 105 RBI. While that stat has lost some of its luster in recent years, it's still emblematic of a successful season. He's also hit 31 home runs and stolen 12 bases while slashing .266/.337/.489.
Player to watch
Parker Messick, Guardians (24%)
When we last looked at these odds, Cleveland Guardians left-hander Parker Messick was hovering around a 7% probability of winning AL Rookie of the Year. That has skyrocketed to 24% in less than a week.
Part of this can be attributed to McGonigle being rock solid across the board but not overwhelmingly great in any one category. But that would also discount what Messick has accomplished, which isn't fair.
Messick ranks seventh among all qualified starters in WAR (4.3), fifth in ERA (2.46), and ninth in innings pitched (161). He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a single outing since June 29, a span of 10 starts.
A strong September could push him close to 200 IP on the season, and if McGonigle continues on the path of very good and not otherworldly, Messick may be undeniable.
MLB Rookie of the Year futures predictions
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 JJ Wetherholt |
21.28% | May 11 | 1 |
 Andrew Painter |
25% | March 24 | 0.25 |
 Carson Benge |
4.76% | March 11 | 0.25 |
 Bubba Chandler |
6.67% | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Chase DeLauter |
4.76% | February 25 | 0.25 |
Previous ROY picks thread
5/11: Wetherholt
My National League bets have all floundered to varying degrees, so I'll cut bait and grab St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt for one unit. I like Nolan McLean as a dark horse to win the NL Cy Young, so he's tempting here as a hedge alongside Wetherholt, but I'm going to single out the infielder. With Sal Stewart scuffling, Wetherholt should have the shortest odds among position players. He's batting leadoff for the Cardinals and is displaying the power-speed combo that had him near the top of draft rankings ahead of 2024 when St. Louis took him seventh overall (an absolute fleecing). His .250 BABIP also tells me that better days are coming for the .235/.350/.405 slash line. He's also the only qualified position-player rookie worth more than 1.0 fWAR on the Senior Circuit, and some of that comes from his elite glovework at the keystone.
3/24: Painter
I can't shake the value of Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter, so I put .25 units on him, bringing my spring futures tally to one full unit for Rookie of the Year markets. So much can go wrong that I play it fairly conservatively before Opening Day. But Painter had similar hype to Paul Skenes before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. Now, with a full season in the minors under his belt following the surgery, he's opening the season in the Phillies' rotation. And unless things go unfathomably sideways, I like him to stick around instead of Taijuan Walker when Zack Wheeler is healthy. Regardless, I expected the number to move, and when it didn't, I decided I'd take the plunge.
3/11: Benge
Carson Benge screamed through the minors in 2025, slashing .281/.385/.472 with 15 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 116 games across three levels. Even with a hiccup in Triple-A, I'm not deterred. He struck out just 17.7% of the time compared to a 13.1% walk rate while boasting a 150 wRC+. He basically looks like the next Kyle Tucker.
2/25: Chandler + DeLauter
Bubba Chandler wasn't as highly touted as Skenes, but he wasn't super far off, either. He posted a 1.83 ERA over his first 39 1/3 innings at Triple-A in 2024. Those numbers took a bit of a dive last season, but his first taste of MLB hitting went pretty well. The 4.02 ERA wasn't amazing, but he had a low walk rate, didn't surrender home runs, and had a 2.66 FIP that suggests at least some positive regression. With Griffin taking all the headlines at Pittsburgh Pirates camp, it's perhaps easy to forget that Chandler likely has a rotation spot on Opening Day unless things go all the way sideways this spring. His ace upside is enough to take a flier here.
Chase DeLauter is currently projected to open the season in the Cleveland Guardians outfield. Injuries have slowed his progression a bit, but he is a dangerous hitter, which is exactly what Cleveland needs. He doesn't strike out (15.8% K-rate in 42 minor-league games last year) and has major home run potential from the left side.
Popular MLB futures markets
Past Rookie of the Year winners
Previous AL RoY winners
Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 73 years.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Nick Kurtz (1B) |
| 2024 |  Luis Gil (SP) |
| 2023 |  Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS) |
| 2022 |  Julio Rodriguez (OF) |
| 2021 |  Randy Arozarena (OF) |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis (OF) |
| 2019 |  Yordan Alvarez (OF) |
| 2018 |  Shohei Ohtani (P/OF) |
| 2017 |  Aaron Judge (OF) |
| 2016 |  Michael Fulmer (SP) |
Previous NL RoY winners
No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.
However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed six of the last 13 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, a catcher, and even a reliever.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Drake Baldwin (C) |
| 2024 |  Paul Skenes (SP) |
| 2023 |  Corbin Carroll (OF) |
| 2022 | Michael Harris (OF) |
| 2021 |  Jonathan India (2B) |
| 2020 |  Devin Williams (RP) |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (1B) |
| 2018 | Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF) |
| 2017 |  Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) |
| 2016 | Cory Seager (SS) |
MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ
Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle is drawing the shortest odds in the American League.
Cincinnati Reds 1B Sal Stewart has the best odds to win NL ROY in 2026.
Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz won the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year while Atlanta Braves C Drake Baldwin earned the NL honors.
MLB rules state a player is considered a rookie unless he has 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 total days on an active MLB roster prior to September 1.
