As playoff races come to a head, so too are the various pursuits for awards in MLB futures.
AL odds are off the books as Julio Rodriguez has run away with the honors in the Junior Circuit. Meanwhile, an injury has opened the door for a change atop the NL odds board.
Here's a look at the latest Rookie of the Year odds:
Odds to win AL Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds to win AL ROY |
|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) | -4,000 |
| Adley Rutschman (Orioles) | +1,200 |
| George Kirby (Mariners) | +8,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of September 19, 2022. Odds are OTB as of September 28, 2022.
AL ROY favorites
It's not to say no other rookies have had solid seasons in the American League, but none have been in the same league as Rodriguez except maybe Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. Obviously, Rutschman pales in comparison when looking at just his offensive numbers as the switch-hitter slashed .254/.361/.448 with 13 homers in 111 games. But he's also already one of the best defensive catchers in baseball and trails J-Rod by just 0.2 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. That's perhaps an imperfect measurement, but it shows how multifaceted Rutschman's value is to the Orioles.
Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena started strong but struggled throughout the summer. Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has quietly hit 20 homers and stolen 29 bases, though his .296 OBP leaves a bit to be desired. Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan showed that you don't have to hit a bunch of bombs to be an effective hitter, batting .301 while striking out in just 9.3% of his plate appearances.
On the pitcher side, Rodriguez's teammate George Kirby is 8-4 with a 3.21 ERA (2.89 FIP) in 23 starts. Los Angeles Angels lefty Reid Detmers has shown promise — he threw a no-hitter early in the season — but has had mixed results on the whole. Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan has also been uneven but has occasionally thrown gems across his 147 innings.
Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michael Harris (Braves) | -320 |
| Spencer Strider (Braves) | +210 |
| Nick Lodolo (Reds) | +50,000 |
| Brendan Donovan (Cardinals) | +50,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of October 2, 2022.
Michael Harris, Atlanta Braves (-105)
Michael Harris is extremely good and extremely fun to watch.
The Braves continued their tradition of not being shy about promoting young players in their system by calling up the 21-year-old Harris before he ever even set foot on a Triple-A ballfield — something they've since repeated with Vaughn Grissom.
Harris is a defensive wizard in the outfield and has acclimated himself very well at the plate thus far by hitting .301/.340/.523 with 19 home runs, 27 doubles, three triples, and 20 stolen bases in 111 games. He looks like a legitimate five-tool threat who could be a fixture in Atlanta's outfield for much of the next decade.
With the injury to teammate Spencer Strider, Harris has taken over as the betting favorite with only a few games remaining on the schedule.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (-140)
Since joining the rotation on May 30, Strider is 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 107 1-3 innings. He's allowed two or fewer runs in 16 of his 20 starts and in nine of 10.
Spencer Strider has struck out over 38% of the hitters he has faced in his first 20 MLB starts. No one else in history has done that! https://t.co/gpZrPJFFXT
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 18, 2022
He's unreal, but an oblique strain has him on the IL retroactive to September 21, which could spell the end of his regular season if the Braves hope to preserve him for their postseason run. His dominance on the mound — he hit double-digit strikeouts in six of his 20 starts — could still be enough to elevate him over Harris in the minds of voters. But the injury could also be enough to give the outfielder the slight edge he needs to take home the hardware.
The field (+50,000)
At one point, this was a much more crowded race. Of the other would-be contenders, Cincinnati Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo has done the most to improve his status in recent action. He set a career-high with 11 strikeouts in an eight-inning start vs. the Brewers on September 9. He followed that up by striking out another 11 over 6 1-3 vs. Pittsburgh on the 14th. Since July 25, a span of 13 starts, Lodolo has a 2.92 ERA with 93 strikeouts over 77 innings. He's issued two or fewer walks in seven of nine as well, showing people the expert precision he was known for in the minors and college.
Past AL Rookie of the Year Winners
Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 23 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 16 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 72 years.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2021 | Randy Arozarena (Tampa Bay Rays) |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis (Seattle Mariners) |
| 2019 | Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros) |
| 2018 | Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels) |
| 2017 | Aaron Judge (New York Yankees) |
| 2016 | Michael Fulmer (Detroit Tigers) |
| 2015 | Carlos Correa (Houston Astros) |
| 2014 | Jose Abreau (Chicago White Sox) |
| 2013 | Wil Myers (Tampa Bay Rays) |
| 2012 | Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels) |
Past NL Rookie of the Year Winners
No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 ROY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2021 | Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds) |
| 2020 | Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers) |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (New York Mets) |
| 2018 | Ronald Acuna Jr. (Atlanta Braves) |
| 2017 | Cody Belinger (Los Angeles Dodgers) |
| 2016 | Cory Seager (Los Angeles Dodgers) |
| 2015 | Kris Bryant (Chicago Cubs) |
| 2014 | Jacob deGrom (New York Mets) |
| 2013 | Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins) |
| 2012 | Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals) |
Understanding MLB ROY odds
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Jonathan India emerged as the National League Rookie of the Year in 2021, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number down the stretch.
- Jonathan India -1,200
That means that a bettor in September had to wager $1,200 to win $100 by betting on India to win NL Rookie of the Year. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.
- Reid Detmers +2,000
That means a bettor would profit $2,000 for a $100 wager on Detmers before the season started if he's ultimately successful.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ
Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez is the solo betting favorite at -4,000 as of September 19.
Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II is the betting favorite at -320 as of October 2.
Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena won the AL ROY and Cincinnati Reds second baseman Jonathan India won in the NL.
MLB rules state a player is considered a rookie unless he has 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 total days on an active MLB roster prior to September 1.
