The MLB Rookie of the Year odds feel mostly settled.
Barring injury, Kevin McGonigle appears to have the American League locked up. Meanwhile, though the NL race is tighter, JJ Wetherholt is maintaining a strong enough lead over Sal Stewart that it feels safe. There is still more than a month left to play, so saying anything is set in stone would be premature.
Let's explore the markets and MLB odds for AL and NL Rookie of the Year.
Odds to win 2026 AL Rookie of the Year
Munetaka Murakami
Kazuma OkamotoOdds last updated on 8-17. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.
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Odds to win 2026 NL Rookie of the Year
| Player |  |
 JJ Wetherholt |
-150 |
 Sal Stewart |
+178 |
 Carson Benge |
+1595 |
 Bryce Eldridge |
+2841 |
 T.J. Rumfield |
+5782 |
| Nolan McLean |
+6567 |
Odds as of 8-17.
MLB Rookie of the Year analysis
JJ Wetherholt is holding onto the top spot in the NL odds, but Cincinnati Reds slugger Sal Stewart isn't going quietly into the night.
Looking purely at surface-level offense, Stewart would have the edge. He's batting .259/.335/.474 with 26 home runs and 12 stolen bases. Compare that to Wetherholt slashing .243/.350/.376 with 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases, and I could understand why someone may value the Reds infielder more.
But Wetherholt has better walk and strikeout rates, which have boosted his OBP, and he's been somewhat cursed by a ridiculously low .264 BABIP.
The reason Wetherholt has maintained separation, both in the odds and in FanGraphs WAR, is his defense. He's probably going to win a Gold Glove at second base this season as he helps form what might be an elite double-play combo alongside Masyn Winn for years to come.
Stewart has closed the gap, but he'll need a serious September heater to take over the top spot.
Before the season, I slapped a prediction on Chase DeLauter to win AL ROY, and I stand by that pick even if it didn't work out. I also don't regret pivoting. Kevin McGonigle hit the ground running, and by the time Munetaka Murakami hit the injured list, this race was pretty much over. The value was gone on McGonigle, and it wasn't particularly present to begin with, as he entered the season with some of the shortest odds to win the award.
That's the way it goes, sometimes.
As a bonus, while Wetherholt's teammate Joshua Baez most certainly won't win NL Rookie of the Year, he did put forth the best debut in MLB history on Saturday, becoming the first player to hit three home runs in his first MLB game.
3 home runs in his first 3 Major League at-bats 😤
— MLB (@MLB) August 15, 2026
Did Joshua Báez put on the best MLB debut EVER?! pic.twitter.com/P43Qi4d4cn
MLB Rookie of the Year futures predictions
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt |
+370 | May 11 | 1 |
 Andrew Painter |
+3000 | March 24 | 0.25 |
| Carson Benge |
+2000 | March 11 | 0.25 |
 Bubba Chandler |
+1400 | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Chase DeLauter |
+2000 | February 25 | 0.25 |
Previous ROY picks thread
5/11: Wetherholt
My National League bets have all floundered to varying degrees, so I'll cut bait and grab St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt for one unit. I like Nolan McLean at +2500 as a dark horse to win the NL Cy Young, so he's tempting here as a hedge alongside Wetherholt, but I'm going to single out the infielder. With Sal Stewart scuffling, Wetherholt should have the shortest odds among position players. He's batting leadoff for the Cardinals and is displaying the power-speed combo that had him near the top of draft rankings ahead of 2024 when St. Louis took him seventh overall (an absolute fleecing). His .250 BABIP also tells me that better days are coming for the .235/.350/.405 slash line. He's also the only qualified position-player rookie worth more than 1.0 fWAR on the Senior Circuit, and some of that comes from his elite glovework at the keystone.
3/24: Painter
I can't shake the value of Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter at +3000, so I put .25 units on him, bringing my spring futures tally to one full unit for Rookie of the Year markets. So much can go wrong that I play it fairly conservatively before Opening Day. But Painter had similar hype to Paul Skenes before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. Now, with a full season in the minors under his belt following the surgery, he's opening the season in the Phillies' rotation. And unless things go unfathomably sideways, I like him to stick around instead of Taijuan Walker when Zack Wheeler is healthy. Regardless, I expected the number to move off +3000, and when it didn't, I decided I'd take the plunge.
3/11: Benge
Carson Benge screamed through the minors in 2025, slashing .281/.385/.472 with 15 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 116 games across three levels. Even with a hiccup in Triple-A, I'm not deterred. He struck out just 17.7% of the time compared to a 13.1% walk rate while boasting a 150 wRC+. He basically looks like the next Kyle Tucker.
2/25: Chandler + DeLauter
Bubba Chandler wasn't as highly touted as Skenes, but he wasn't super far off, either. He posted a 1.83 ERA over his first 39 1/3 innings at Triple-A in 2024. Those numbers took a bit of a dive last season, but his first taste of MLB hitting went pretty well. The 4.02 ERA wasn't amazing, but he had a low walk rate, didn't surrender home runs, and had a 2.66 FIP that suggests at least some positive regression. With Griffin taking all the headlines at Pittsburgh Pirates camp, it's perhaps easy to forget that Chandler likely has a rotation spot on Opening Day unless things go all the way sideways this spring. His ace upside is enough to take a flier here.
Chase DeLauter is currently projected to open the season in the Cleveland Guardians outfield. Injuries have slowed his progression a bit, but he is a dangerous hitter, which is exactly what Cleveland needs. He doesn't strike out (15.8% K-rate in 42 minor-league games last year) and has major home run potential from the left side.
Popular MLB futures markets
Past Rookie of the Year winners
Previous AL RoY winners
Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 73 years.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Nick Kurtz (1B) |
| 2024 |  Luis Gil (SP) |
| 2023 |  Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS) |
| 2022 |  Julio Rodriguez (OF) |
| 2021 |  Randy Arozarena (OF) |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis (OF) |
| 2019 |  Yordan Alvarez (OF) |
| 2018 |  Shohei Ohtani (P/OF) |
| 2017 |  Aaron Judge (OF) |
| 2016 |  Michael Fulmer (SP) |
Previous NL RoY winners
No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.
However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed six of the last 13 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, a catcher, and even a reliever.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Drake Baldwin (C) |
| 2024 |  Paul Skenes (SP) |
| 2023 |  Corbin Carroll (OF) |
| 2022 | Michael Harris (OF) |
| 2021 | Jonathan India (2B) |
| 2020 |  Devin Williams (RP) |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (1B) |
| 2018 | Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF) |
| 2017 |  Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) |
| 2016 | Cory Seager (SS) |
MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ
Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle is drawing the shortest odds in the American League.
St. Louis Cardinals 2B JJ Wetherholt is the current favorite.
Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz won the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year while Atlanta Braves C Drake Baldwin earned the NL honors.
MLB rules state a player is considered a rookie unless he has 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 total days on an active MLB roster prior to September 1.
