The All-Star Game has come and gone and we've got a fairly clear MLB odds board for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year races.
Paul Skenes has been nothing short of dominant since his debut and is running away with the NL ROY.
Let's break down the AL and NL Rookie of the Year races and see how the battles are shaking out.
Odds to win AL Rookie of the Year
| Player |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Wyatt Langford |
+150 | +190 | +140 |
 Luis Gil |
+225 | +240 | +225 |
 Colton Cowser |
+400 | +300 | +400 |
 Ceddanne Rafaela |
+800 | +850 | +900 |
| Wilyer Abreu |
+1,100 | +2,200 | +1,800 |
 Mason Miller |
+1,200 | +1,700 | +1,600 |
 Colt Keith |
+2,200 | +1,900 | +2,200 |
| Ben Rice |
+4,000 | +2,200 | +3,300 |
 Brooks Lee |
+4,500 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| David Hamilton |
+4,500 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| Heston Kjerstad |
+5,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
 Spencer Horwitz |
+5,000 | +3,300 | +4,000 |
Odds as of 7-23.
AL Rookie of the Year odds analysis
7/16/2024: Nothing much has changed here. Wyatt Langford is still sitting atop the board but is hardly a sure thing. Luis Gil saw his number rebound after back-to-back solid outings against the Red Sox and Orioles.
The most notable movement comes from Detroit Tigers infielder Colt Keith, who has finally started to hit and is back among the living near the top of the odds. The 22-year-old was hitting .197 on May 19, and after a bit of a hot streak bumped that up to .238, he slumped back to .214 on June 11. In 28 games since then, Keith is slashing .324/.383/.600 with seven home runs and 18 RBI, boosting his season average to .253 in the process.
It seems unlikely that he'll win but he and Langford offer excellent examples that maybe teams need to be more patient at the big-league level and let their hitters work their way out of struggles. The Cleveland Guardians played Kyle Manzardo inconsistently when he didn't immediately take off. The Baltimore Orioles pulled the plug on Jackson Holliday after a really rough stretch that was still a very small sample size. Maybe they wouldn't turn it around in the same way, but there's the chance they might have. But with both Langford and Keith thriving, it probably stings a little.
Previous AL Rookie of the Year odds analysis
7/9/2024: Another week, another leap for Wyatt Langford, who now owns the shortest odds among all AL rookies. The outfielder has been trending in this direction for a month or so, and he's not showing signs of slowing. Since June 1, Langford is hitting .325/.390/.545 with four home runs, nine doubles, three triples, 26 RBI, and six stolen bases. He's a legitimate five-tool talent. He was 10/1 to win just two weeks ago and that number isn't coming back.
7/3/2024: If you've been following along, I've had my eyes on Wyatt Langford's odds for a few weeks now and I hope you snatched him up when he was still at 10/1 because another week of solid production has shortened his odds to +275 at the longest. While he's not showcasing much home run power, he has flashed speed. He's a legitimate five-tool prospect who is rounding into form. Offense was down across baseball in the early going of this season, and many high-end rookies have scuffled at the plate. Patience and talent win out, and Langford looks like the best bet to claim the award. Luis Gil suffered through a second consecutive rough outing, allowing five runs on four hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings, and he can't be trusted at the moment.
6/25/2024: Luis Gil finally tasted abject failure by getting obliterated by the Baltimore Orioles over 1 1/3 innings. Since the rest of this class has been fairly underwhelming, no one has quite challenged his status atop the odds board. But maybe there's value with Wyatt Langford at 10/1. The power hasn't shown up yet, but he's hitting .294/.333/.471 with two home runs (including a grand slam last week), 20 RBI, five doubles, and a pair of triples. He's hitting the ball hard, not striking out that much, and becoming a fixture in Texas' lineup. Another week or two like this and he'll be closer to even money.
6/12/2024: I'm skeptical of Luis Gil over the long term in 2024. Maybe I shouldn't be. He's electric, of course, but the walk rate is concerning and there will be a logjam of pitching talent when Gerrit Cole gets activated. The New York Yankees rotation, a major question mark entering the season, is about to be an embarrassment of riches. And let's say my doubt in Gil is more or less warranted. Who is going to take over? Mason Miller is the logical choice but he could get traded. Wilyer Abreu is injured. Colton Cowser's bat has all but evaporated. Gil's future teammate Jasson Dominguez is raking in Triple-A but has yet to play in the majors as he works his way back from injury. Maybe Wyatt Langford finds his groove. The power hasn't showed up yet but he's had four multi-hit games since returning from injury, strikes out less than 20% of the time, and has been a bit unlucky. Still, the results have to show if he's going to jump back in the race.
6/5/2024: By mid-May, New York Yankees right-hander Luis Gil had raised his stock considerably from where it opened. He was trading at 20/1 to win AL Rookie of the Year and appeared on the verge of skyrocketing even further up the board. A few short weeks later and Gil is now the betting favorite to win it at all books. He is 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings. Yes, his 12.6% walk rate is higher than you'd like, but he's been somewhat akin to a right-handed 2023 Blake Snell where he gives away free passes but then strands runners because guys can't touch him. With Gerrit Cole inching closer to a return, could an innings limit hold Gil back? That seems like the only potential roadblock, but he's also been the club's most dominant pitcher. Meanwhile, Mason Miller is human after all. He surrendered a home run for the first time this season and saw his ERA jump all the way to 2.08. Miller's been great and looks like the next big-deal closer if he doesn't get converted back into being a starter. Finally, the Baltimore Orioles debuted yet another position player prospect in Connor Norby, who went hitless in his first game before cranking a home run in his second for his first career hit.
5/28/2024: With DraftKings still not listing Oakland A's closer Mason Miller as an option, their odds appear a bit skewed, especially when it comes to Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, who is still listed as the betting favorite at +150. Cowser got off to a hot start, but his bat has cooled considerably and he isn't getting at-bats at the same frequency. Since April 23, he's batting .167/.296/.256 with one home run in 108 plate appearances. From Opening Day to April 22, he hit .364/.400/.800 with six home runs in 60 plate appearances. It's bizarre that he's still trading at such a short number even if Miller is left out of the equation. No one has really taken hold of the race, which is likely why handicapping it is so up in the air. Even Miller isn't a lock because he could get traded at midseason. It seems wild to suggest that given that star rookies are rarely traded by bottom-feeding teams but the A's are a different beast and if they think he's a career reliever, his trade value may never be higher.
5/21/2024: A week ago, I mentioned that Luis Gil's odds would continue shrinking from roughly 20/1 if he kept holding his own. Well, shrink they have because he lived up to his end of the bargain and then some. While it was against the lowly Chicago White Sox, Gil struck out 14 batters in six innings of one-run ball. He's now 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA and has allowed fewer base hits (26) than any other qualified pitcher. Walks have been his undoing, but he only issued one walk vs. Chicago and has walked more than two in only one of his last five starts. The biggest concern for Gil backers will be Gerrit Cole's return and if that eats into the 25-year-old's workload. If he keeps pitching even a fraction as well as he is now, the New York Yankees will find room for him.
5/14/2024: Oakland A's closer Mason Miller is still not an option at DraftKings but bet365 is now listing him for AL Rookie of the Year. A wrench could be thrown into that by midseason, though, as teams are apparently inquiring about his availability. Normally, I'd expect a top rookie to be off-limits on a rebuilding team, but this is the A's and no one is safe. If Oakland deems Miller to be fungible — and if he's destined to stay in the bullpen, he probably is — he could actually be more valuable to the team as a trade chip than part of what is sure to be a lengthy and painful process of maybe someday returning to contention in Vegas or whatever Plan B (Sacramento?) might be if that falls apart. Luis Gil, another pitcher who is not readily available across all sportsbooks, is turning heads for the New York Yankees. Since allowing five runs on seven hits over five innings to the Milwaukee Brewers on April 26, he's looked locked in. Gil is 3-0 with a 0.49 ERA over his last three starts, allowing just one earned run over 18 1/3 innings while recording three straight quality starts. The command is still shaky but he's trading at 20/1 and that will continue to shrink if he can hold his own.
5/9/2024: We have a conundrum on our hands. Is Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller a rookie or not? Some books (FanDuel and Caesars) offer him as an option to win AL Rookie of the Year — with FD listing him as the betting favorite — while DraftKings and bet365, among others, haven't put him on the board... yet. Baseball-Reference says he exceeded rookie eligibility in 2023 while FanGraphs cites him as a rookie in 2024. Rookie eligibility for a pitcher is exceeded if he throws more than 50 innings at the MLB level or accumulates more than 45 days of service time on an MLB roster. First off, Miller threw 33 1/3 innings in 2023, so that can't be held against him. As for his service time, he was promoted to the A's on April 19 and was on the active roster through a start on May 7 (19 days). He was on the injured list (where service time does not accrue) until returning to the club on September 6, remaining with Oakland until the final day of the regular season on October 1 (26 days). In total, Miller accrued EXACTLY 45 days of service time, so he should maintain his rookie eligibility for this season. Now, if May 8 — the day his IL stint was retroactively dated — counts as a day of MLB service, then he would not have kept his first-year status. In Jim Bowden's most recent AL rookie rankings for The Athletic, he lists Miller at No. 1. This inclusion is challenged in the comments. Bowden replied that the commissioner's office confirmed Miller is still a rookie for the 2024 season. Obviously, this is frustrating for bettors because Miller was not a betting option throughout spring training and the first month of the season as he emerged as one of the top closers in the game. Had he been listed alongside his first-year peers, his odds would have been considerably longer than the +300 you can get today. And if other books follow suit, you can bank on a less-than-favorable number.
5/7/2024: Be wary of Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser as his status as apparent favorite takes hold atop the AL odds board. Don't get me wrong, his .276/.354/.575 slash line and six home runs to date are impressive. But, he's hitting just .143 since April 19 (15 games) and has been held out of the starting lineup more frequently against lefties. His status here is buoyed by a molten-hot start to his season and by the fact that no one has taken the reins as he's struggled. Wyatt Langford going down with a hamstring injury certainly doesn't help, and his Texas Rangers teammate Evan Carter is still hitting just .225. Maybe Cleveland Guardians slugger Kyle Manzardo can make some noise after being promoted on Monday. However, Manzardo's debut was not inspiring as he struck out in all three plate appearances. Chalk that up to jitters, though, because he never struck out more than 20.8% in the minors. His arrival shows how quickly lines can move, though, as Manzardo was available as long as 100/1 a week ago when a promotion was anything but imminent. An injury to Steven Kwan opened the door and now 25/1 is the best number. The point is Cowser hasn't been doing enough to warrant such a bullish number, so unless you invested in him before he took flight, I'd hold off. In fact, Jackson Holliday at 80/1 is more tempting. He'll make his way back to the majors at some point and it's bound to be an improvement over his first cup of coffee.
4/30/2024: It's very curious when a rookie struggles and gets sent down, and their hype and odds die. This is kind of happening with Jackson Holliday, who is as long as 50/1 — or off the board entirely — after being demoted to the minors following a very rough stretch to start his career. But, realistically, should he be seeing longer odds than Junior Caminero? Caminero hasn't gotten the call to the Tampa Bay Rays and is drawing shorter odds than Holliday at several books. He could be on his way tomorrow but it could be longer. Rookie of the Year is such a mercurial market for this reason. Colt Keith still has a full-time job in the majors (for now) despite his struggles. And yet he's fetching 90/1 at FanDuel while Kyle Manzardo, the aforementioned Caminero, and the about-to-debut Joey Loperfido are all listed at much shorter numbers. A lot can change, but the only numbers that make sense are the few at the very top, based on the data we have. Realistically, only Colton Cowser, Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford, and maybe Wilyer Abreu feel like legitimate options. Then again, the calendar is only just flipping over to May.
4/23/2024: Another week, another Baltimore Orioles promotion. Slugging outfielder Heston Kjerstad is being called up to the big-league roster after slashing .349/.431/.744 with 10 home runs and 30 RBI in 21 games at Triple-A. Now, it's wise to temper expectations a bit, as Jackson Holliday was more highly touted, similarly torched minor-league pitching, and has struggled with the stick since his MLB debut, going just 1-for-30 (.033 batting average) with 16 strikeouts. His struggles have been muted by the team's overall success, especially since Colton Cowser has fully taken over as the betting favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year. It doesn't mean the O's are done, either. Corner infielder Coby Mayo is hitting .344/.388/656 with seven dingers and 19 RBI in 21 games at Triple-A Norfolk. His low walk totals and elevated strikeout rate combined with no immediate clear path to playing time mean he will likely stay in the minors for much of the year. This could keep his rookie status in place for next season if he doesn't get promoted or is a late-season call-up.
4/18/2024: With all the hubbub surrounding Jackson Holliday's promotion to the Baltimore Orioles roster, it was perhaps easy to lose sight of another player blossoming into his own. Colton Cowser has been Baltimore's best offensive player, full stop. This is impressive considering Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan Mountcastle have all been very productive. Cowser wasn't even an everyday player to open the season but forced the Orioles' hands, and it's paid off. He's batting .400/.429/.800 with four homers and three stolen bases in 49 plate appearances. A 30.6% strikeout rate and .519 BABIP could sound the alarm bells, but if he can maintain a level of productivity without too big a slump, he'll be in this race all year. The Orioles would benefit, too, since he made the Opening Day roster and they would get an extra draft pick in 2026 if he wins the award. He was still available at +2,000 when we last updated. That number is long gone with +300 the best we're seeing.
4/10/2024: It's Jackson Holliday season and the odds already reflect his imminent arrival to the Baltimore Orioles roster. He was trading between +400 and +500 after our last update and those numbers have tightened to +350 or shorter, depending on the book. Opening the season in Triple-A wasn't entirely surprising since the prevailing wisdom is he'd slot in as Baltimore's second baseman (which he is while batting ninth in his debut). Since he's primarily played shortstop, playing in the minors to get reps at a new position made sense. But here we are, 10 games into the Orioles' season, and Holliday is coming to the majors. If he wins Rookie of the Year, Baltimore won't get a bonus draft pick, either, as that is awarded to the team if the ROY winner started the season in the bigs (like with Gunnar Henderson and Julio Rodriguez). But since neither Wyatt Langford nor Evan Carter — the Texas Rangers pair deemed his top competition before Opening Day — have exploded on the scene, Holliday doesn't have much ground to make up. And if he hits as he did at Triple-A, where he slashed .333/.482/.595 with two home runs, nine RBI, and 18 runs scored in just 10 games, then he will run away with the hardware. The best time to pounce on Holliday was last week. With those lines gone, however, +350 could easily be the best number you'll see on him going forward.
4/4/2024: Had Wyatt Langford or Evan Carter or any of the rookies who broke camp on a major-league roster truly jumped out of the gates with eye-popping numbers and results, it would have put those high-profile names who started in the minors in a bit of a hole. However, no one has done this. So, when the likes of Jackson Holliday, Kyle Manzardo, and Junior Caminero get the call, they could all be in fine positions to make some noise in the Rookie of the Year odds. However, Holliday's odds haven't lengthened all that much despite him opening the season in Triple-A. This is likely a byproduct of no one gaining much separation combined with the fact that he's slashing .400/.448/.800 with two home runs, eight RBI, and 12 runs scored through 29 plate appearances in five games. If he keeps this up, the Baltimore Orioles will have little choice but to promote him.
3/27/2024: The Baltimore Orioles announced that Jackson Holliday wouldn't make the team's Opening Day roster while the Texas Rangers have committed to Wyatt Langford breaking camp. Langford, who is carrying astronomical amounts of hype after being drafted out of Florida just last summer, is now drawing the shortest odds to win AL Rookie of the Year across the board. Holliday could still compete, but he doesn't have a timetable for his eventual debut. It should happen this summer, but will it happen in May or June? Or later? Colton Cowser, on the other hand, did make the Orioles and should feature as an everyday player unless his bat doesn't play. He scuffled during his first taste of big-league action last summer, but that has happened to the best of them. Remember, Mike Trout's first cup of major-league coffee didn't predict a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. Ceddanne Rafaela will also break camp with the Boston Red Sox. He's a power-speed combo who can play in the infield and outfield, so his versatility should keep him afloat unless his bat completely disappears. The Red Sox also aren't expected to contend, so he could have a longer leash to figure things out in the face of early struggles.
3/19/2024: The trio atop the AL Rookie of the Year board hasn't changed much, except for Texas Rangers outfield prospect Wyatt Langford continuing to narrow the gap with his hot spring. Perhaps the biggest surprise news, which should have ripple effects in these odds sooner than later, is that the Cleveland Guardians will not open the season with Kyle Manzardo entrenched at first base. Manzardo was re-assigned to minor-league camp after slashing .381/.458/.476 in 29 plate appearances. He could still factor into this race, but the Guardians aren't rushing him.
3/5/2024: The top of the odds board hasn't changed in terms of order, but Texas Rangers outfield prospect Wyatt Langford has seen his odds shorten in recent days. At the end of February, the Florida Gators product was trading between +550 and +700. Now, he's as short as +450 with the longest odds being +600. Spring training numbers don't always translate to regular-season success, but Langford was hitting .353/.450/.882 with three home runs and seven RBI through his first 20 plate appearances. If this means he opens the year at the MLB level, it might not be long before he's the overall favorite.
2/29/2024: Books appear torn on whether to favor Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter or Baltimore Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday. The biggest difference between the two is that Carter has MLB experience already and is a lock to open the season in the majors. Holliday could easily break camp, and he's said that's his goal, but the consensus top prospect in baseball could also find himself at Triple-A to open the season. While he finished last season at that level, he only amassed 91 plate appearances at Triple-A before the offseason.
2/14/2024: Pitchers and catchers are trickling into spring training, and very little has changed on the odds board for Rookie of the Year. As training camp ramps up and spring games are played, we may get a better sense of who will break camp with his team and who will be relegated to Triple-A to open the season. This is significant because both winners in 2023 started the season in the majors and there is an incentive for teams to have their best rookie at the MLB level for the duration as they will receive a bonus draft pick if the ROY winner spent the entire year on the big-league roster.
2/6/2024: The first update setting us up for the 2024 season provided a more in-depth rundown of expectations. This time around, I'm isolating a couple of gaps in the odds. New York Yankees outfield prospect Everson Pereira is listed at a whopping +20,000 at FanDuel to win AL ROY compared to no longer than +5,000 elsewhere. It's probably stranger that his odds are as short as they are at the other books, considering the Yankees added both Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo this offseason, but he could be the first man up if there's an injury since Jasson Dominguez is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Toronto Blue Jays lefty Ricky Tiedemann and Minnesota Twins infielder Brooks Lee are both +7,500 at FanDuel, which is considerably longer than at other books. Like Pereira, neither is expected to break camp (things can change) but there could be paths to playing time. The Twins just traded Jorge Polanco and could be a Carlos Correa injury away from needing reinforcements.
1/16/2024: The first thing worth noting — and it applies to both leagues — is teams are given at least some incentive to open the season with their best young players on the MLB roster. If the eventual Rookie of the Year winner was on the Opening Day roster and stayed there throughout the season, his team would receive an extra selection in the following year's draft. Since this provision was put into place before the 2022 season, three of the four winners have played on Opening Day (Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, and Gunnar Henderson). By this logic, Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter makes a certain amount of sense to be drawing the shortest odds, though that is only the case at FanDuel. Carter debuted in 2023, was a breakout star in the postseason, and should be a lock to open the season on the big-league roster. His power-speed combo makes him a major threat on offense and defense and while his strikeout rate spiked in the majors, he didn't go down on strikes too often in the minors.His eventual teammate Wyatt Langford is actually a year older and was taken fourth overall in last summer's draft. His bat is MLB-ready and he could easily make the team out of Spring Training. Jackson Holliday tore through the minors in 2023, going from Single-A to Triple-A by season's end. The son of former big-league slugger Matt, the 20-year-old doesn't need much more seasoning and with the Baltimore Orioles looking to make further headway into their competition window, adding him to the young core sooner than later makes sense. The Orioles have never fielded back-to-back ROY winners, but that would be the case if Holliday — or Colton Cowser or Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo — pulls it off.
Best MLB bonuses
All Users
Instant payout for MLB moneylines
If your team goes up by 5+! Claim Now
See our bet365 sportsbook review!
New Users
Get a no-sweat first bet
Up to $1,500! Claim Now
See our BetMGM sportsbook review!
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year
| Player | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
 Paul Skenes |
-1,000 | -1,100 | -1,111 |
 Jackson Merrill |
+500 | +550 | +550 |
 Shota Imanaga |
+2,000 | +2,000 | +2,200 |
 Joey Ortiz |
+2,200 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| Michael Busch |
+2,500 | +4,700 | +4,500 |
 Gavin Stone |
+3,000 | +4,400 | +4,500 |
 James Wood |
+3,000 | +9,000 | +7,000 |
 Masyn Winn |
+3,500 | +5,500 | +5,000 |
| Jared Jones |
+5,000 | +10,000 | +8,000 |
 Rece Hinds |
+5,000 | +5,500 | +5,500 |
Odds as of 7-23.
NL Rookie of the Year odds analysis
7/16/2024: Paul Skenes' trajectory has been bananas. It's crazy to think that not all that long ago, it seemed unlikely that he would have a puncher's chance to win ROY. Well, not only is he now running away with the odds (from 20/1 in the middle of May to -1,000 two months later) but he's among the NL leaders in Cy Young odds and starting the All-Star Game. The same caveats as ever apply, be wary of injury or the Pirates scaling him back in the second half, but it seems like a foregone conclusion that he's the guy. But a word about Rece Hinds. The Cincinnati Reds selected Hinds out of high school in the second round of the 2019 draft and he's showcased raw power and excellent speed. He's only played seven MLB games, but he's got five home runs and 11 RBI while slashing .423/.464/1.192. That is an incredibly small sample, and it's unsustainable. Hinds doesn't walk and he strikes out a lot. He's a real three true outcomes player, and that will be valuable and frustrating in almost equal measure. Still, he's been so much fun in his brief time in the majors.
Previous NL Rookie of the Year odds analysis
7/9/2024: Like with Langford, the time to hammer Paul Skenes to win NL ROY has long passed. And it's been an even starker contrast with the competition. Skenes is 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA over his first 10 big-league starts and was just named to the NL All-Star team. If the Pirates get cute with his usage or he somehow gets hurt, then — and only then — will he be at risk of falling out of the top spot. If you want to hedge on that, James Wood at +7,500 isn't the worst idea. Yes, I thought he was listed too optimistically a week ago after he debuted, but he's shown flashes of his potential since his promotion that suggest he has the highest upside of anyone else in the running. Through his first eight games, he's 8-for-29 (.276) with one home run, six RBI, and six walks. Pitchers are already approaching him with caution. I still don't think anyone is worth picking over Skenes, but Wood looks very good
7/3/2024: Paul Skenes put together another sparkling performance by holding the Atlanta Braves to one run on six hits over six innings of work. He's now allowed just three earned runs over his last four starts (25 1/3 innings) and has been stretched out to 100 pitches. The only things standing in his way of winning NL Rookie of the Year are injury or an ultra-conservative approach from the Pittsburgh Pirates down the stretch. It's a shame, in a way, that this means James Wood's debut gets little fanfare from a betting standpoint. Wood notched a single in his first MLB at-bat on Monday and can be expected to be a fixture in the Washington Nationals lineup going forward. He would need an otherworldly three months to overtake Skenes, though. He's inexplicably listed at +2,500 at Caesars when he probably should be around the +8,500 at FanDuel or even longer.
6/25/2024: Shota Imanaga was demolished in his last start, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings of work against the New York Mets, bumping his ERA to 2.96 from 1.89. Yikes. This has cleared a path for Pittsburgh Pirates wunderkind Paul Skenes, who is now the betting favorite by a considerable margin. I am very glad I jumped on his line when it was +2,000. He served up a home run to Yandy Diaz on his first pitch in his last start and then shut the Rays out for seven innings thereafter, striking out eight. He's 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA and only a potential injury or innings cap seems to stand in his way.
6/12/2024: The knock on Paul Skenes is purely related to his overall innings cap. Will he pitch enough to warrant consideration as the National League's top rookie? He certainly has the stuff. While the Dodgers eventually tagged him for a few runs, he started proceedings by punching out both Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani relatively painlessly. Ohtani later adjusted and took Skenes' fastball deep but there's no shame in that. The young righty followed that up by shutting out the Cardinals over 6 1/3 innings, earning a standing ovation from the ST. LOUIS crowd. He punched out eight and didn't walk a batter. Even with as well as Shota Imanaga has pitched, if we knew Skenes was going to be on a regular workload — barring injury — through the end of the season, he'd be the one to beat.
6/5/2024: Shota Imanaga got blasted by the Milwaukee Brewers after a longer layoff between starts, resulting in the worst start of his MLB career. He bounced back by holding the White Sox to one earned run but allowed seven hits in 4 1/3 innings as his day was cut short by a rain delay. Paul Skenes remains his closest rival and gets his toughest test yet when he starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday.
5/28/2024: Shota Imanaga's start vs. the St. Louis Cardinals was postponed by rain and the Chicago Cubs bumped him to this week entirely. He takes the mound on Wednesday, giving him a full 11 days between outings. It will be extremely interesting to see if this break helps or hurts him. Before this layoff, Imanaga hadn't gone more than a week between starts, so his rhythm could be off. Or he could just dominate the Brewers and reinforce why he's the betting favorite by such a wide margin.
5/21/2024: Paul Skenes followed up his debut by no-hitting the Chicago Cubs with 11 strikeouts over six innings. The only blemish was a lone walk. While he wasn't allowed to go the distance, he still threw 100 pitches, which is encouraging for his backers since one of the concerns surrounding him was limited potential usage. Generally, repeat at-bats favor the hitter as he gets more info about what a pitcher is offering. Skenes adapted after allowing three runs in four innings vs. the Cubs in his first start. He started hot, too, striking out the first seven hitters he saw. A home start against the Giants awaits on Thursday afternoon. HOWEVER! Is it actually too late for Skenes to enter the race? No, but he has an uphill battle ahead of him thanks mostly to Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga. Imanaga is 5-0 through nine starts with an absurd 0.84 ERA. The Throwing Philosopher (a banger nickname) has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start and has vanquished some impressive teams. We'll see how he keeps it up as the weather gets warmer and the ball starts flying (he is an extreme fly-ball pitcher), but many books are now trading him at -110 or shorter.
5/14/2024: If you wanted to grab Paul Skenes but didn't like where the number went right before he was promoted, now might be the time to grab some speculative shares. I understand the hesitance since his MLB debut was hardly amazing when you look at the surface numbers. He allowed three earned runs on six hits and two walks, including a home run, over just four innings of work. With how short a leash he's had at Triple-A, this might ring the alarm bells that the Pittsburgh Pirates will not be taking any risks at the majors, limiting his exposure to big-league bats. However, Skenes also ripped seven strikeouts in the abbreviated outing and two of those three runs plated because Pittsburgh's relievers couldn't find the zone. Skenes got through four innings with a solo home run from Nico Hoerner the only real blemish. He opened the fifth by allowing a double to Mike Tauchman and a single to Seiya Suzuki before being pulled. Kyle Nicolas then got two straight strikeouts to nearly escape before hitting Ian Happ with a pitch and then issuing three consecutive walks, charging two more earned runs to Skenes' box score. Skenes also threw 84 pitches, so the Pirates might be stretching him out gradually, and they were willing to see if he could get through the fifth. DraftKings has since moved him from 10/1 to 13/1 while FanDuel went from 17/1 to 20/1. You could take the risk and see if the number balloons after start two but if he shows any improvement — and I expect he will — 20/1 will be gone.
5/9/2024: I hope you got Paul Skenes' number when it was still around 30/1 because a day after our last update, it was reported that the Pittsburgh Pirates would finally be promoting Skenes to the big-league roster to make his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs on Saturday, May 11. FanDuel had 30/1 and it immediately moved to +1,700, leaving +2,000 at bet365 as the best number on Thursday morning. However, there are a few roadblocks. One, will the Pirates use him enough? They've been limiting his workload at Triple-A, understandably attempting to limit injury risk. It would be surprising if he was suddenly throwing 90-100 pitches and completing seven innings on the regular. The other issue is just how well Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga has pitched. The Japanese import is 5-0 with a ridiculous 1.08 ERA over 41 2/3 innings across seven starts. As a result, he's taken over the top spot on the odds board. If Skenes' minor-league success translates to the bigs without many growing pains, he could certainly make a charge, especially when Imanaga eventually comes back to earth even a little bit.
5/7/2024: Paul Skenes allowed a home run for the first time in his minor-league career and it bumped his 2024 ERA all the way to 0.99. I guess he's not ready. I understand that the Pittsburgh Pirates want to slow-play Skenes and are wary about injury risk, but he should have been facing better competition yesterday. There have been rumblings that a promotion will be coming soon, though he's still scheduled for at least one more Triple-A outing. With that in mind, FanDuel has moved his number from +1,800 to +3,000 in a week. That is great value with his upside and MLB debut inching ever closer.
4/30/2024: There have been minor changes atop the NL odds board with Michael Busch dipping a bit and Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto surging, but it's mostly a familiar list. I'm curious about a pair of Colorado Rockies rookies who aren't even listed above. Hunter Goodman (+18,000 at FanDuel) has appeared in three games since being promoted. He's 1-for-9 but the lone hit was indeed a home run. He's got nothing left to prove at the minor-league level after hitting .298/352/.690 with seven home runs in 20 games at Triple-A earlier this year. With Nolan Jones expected to be placed on the IL today, Jordan Beck (not listed at any of the above books) will reportedly get called up. Beck has more speed and a bit less power than Goodman but also struck out less and walked more this year at Triple-A. Keep an eye on them.
4/23/2024: The National League offers an insanely tight race atop the leaderboard with six players drawing 10/1 odds or shorter. I'm dubious of how the Pittsburgh Pirates are handling top pitching prospect Paul Skenes, who could be a seventh on that list if everything breaks right. The problem is while the club is understandably playing it safe with the electric right-hander, he hasn't been building up much volume at Triple-A. He's yet to allow a run in four starts but has been limited to 12 2/3 innings. Presumably, they would deploy him as a starter, as that was how he was used at LSU, but this isn't a starting pitcher's workload. You can argue that the slow build-up is for his long-term health, but that will limit his chances to win Rookie of the Year if he does get called up. Still, if he comes up and makes fools of MLB hitters in three-inning bursts, maybe it won't matter. Still, expect his odds to gain helium the second reports surface that the Pirates will promote him. In the meantime, fellow Pirates rookie Jared Jones has acclimated to the bigs quite well and is among those top options. He's got a 2.79 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 39 strikeouts in 29 innings across five starts (three of which have gone at least six innings).
4/18/2024: Like with Cowser in the AL, we've seen a surge in the NL from an unexpected name. Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch has torched opposing pitchers in recent weeks, including a run where he hit a home run in five straight games, bumping his odds to +650 at longest. He was still available at +2,500 at our last update. Also like Cowser, his strikeout rate is a little worrisome at 27.1%, but his power stroke is in line with everything he did throughout his minor-league career. Last year at Triple-A, he slashed .323/.431/.618 with 27 home runs in 98 games. The Dodgers, who traded him to the Cubs this offseason, never seemed to have enough room for him. So, Los Angeles' loss is Chicago's gain. One of the more curious moves of the year came when the Miami Marlins optioned right-hander Max Meyer to Triple-A. The Marlins have been upfront about limiting Meyer's innings as he's coming off Tommy John, but he's been the club's best pitcher out of the gate. And if he were to win the award somehow now, they wouldn't get a bonus draft pick because he'd have to have spent the entire season on the MLB roster. As it stands, don't bet on him at his current odds because books have not adjusted nearly enough to take that risk.
4/10/2024: Nothing much has changed on the NL side of the odds board. No one seems to be on the verge of being called up. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jackson Chourio, Jared Jones, Shota Imanaga, and Jackson Merrill keep chugging along. Paul Skenes could debut soon or he might not pitch for the Pittsburgh Pirates until June or July. So, I want to point out a curiosity. Washington Nationals outfield prospect James Wood is trading as short as +1,800 despite not having anything close to resembling an ETA. He performed really well in spring training, but the Nats have no reason to promote him as they're not competitive and he does have some work to do — notably, cutting down on his swing-and-miss. He could very well be a perennial All-Star later in his career, but the 21-year-old might not play in the majors in 2024 or be a September call-up. He wouldn't be in the running for the award in either scenario. Whereas FanDuel has adjusted to the similar question facing Wood's teammate, Dylan Crews, by listing him at +11,000, his odds are still significantly shorter. Obviously, Washington could surprise everyone and call him up if he keeps hitting like he is — .360/.500/.560 in 32 plate appearances at triple-A with a 15.6% K rate — but the Orioles are in win-now mode, exacerbating the need to call Holliday up. The Nationals are either finishing last in the NL East or ahead of only the Miami Marlins. The more likely scenario is Wood and Crews open 2025 on the big-league roster, giving the club two shots at the award and the bonus pick.
4/4/2024: In contrast to the Junior Circuit, the National League has had its fair share of big performances from first-year players already. Shota Imanaga didn't allow a hit until the sixth inning of his first start for the Chicago Cubs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto bounced back after his rough outing in Seoul to stymie the Cardinals over five shutout innings. Jared Jones struck out 10 in his first big-league start. Jackson Merrill has been an effective everyday player for the San Diego Padres despite being just 20 years old. But MLB's youngest active player, Jackson Chourio — the first player born in 2004 to reach the majors — has put his stamp on the field most impressively. Imanaga and Yamamoto have years of pro experience, this is Chourio's first crack at it. He's 7-for-20 (.350) through five games with a home run, double, and stolen base. The Milwaukee Brewers have a cornerstone outfielder in their midst and maybe a bonus draft pick if he wins NL ROY.
3/25/2024: Paul Skenes won't open the season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but another top pitching prospect will. Right-hander Jared Jones secured a spot in Pittsburgh's rotation after dazzling in spring training, and he's still available as long as +8,000 at BetMGM, though that line will not last. As expected, Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill have seen their odds shorten after their spots on their respective teams' Opening Day rosters were secured. The same will likely happen with Jones, though not at the same rate as the Jacksons before actual games are played.
3/19/2024: The biggest preseason news among NL rookies is that Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill will make the Opening Day rosters of the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres, respectively. It seemed possible that this was Chourio's destiny after signing his massive contract, but the club was noncommital until only recently. Merrill is a bigger surprise, given that he's only 20 years old and will be the team's starting center fielder after almost exclusively playing shortstop throughout his minor-league career. Chourio was already near the top of the board, but this only solidified his presence. Merrill, who has just 46 games at Double-A under his belt, shot way up as soon as the news of his promotion became public. On the opposite end, the Pittsburgh Pirates officially announced that right-hander Paul Skenes would open the year in the minors despite making everyone look foolish with his arsenal of pitches. Likewise, the Arizona Diamondbacks are sending Jordan Lawlar to Triple-A and the Chicago Cubs have elected to let Pete Crow-Armstrong get a little extra minor-league seasoning. The biggest faller since our last update is Cincinnati Reds infielder Noelvi Marte, who was suspended for half the season — plus playoffs — after testing positive for an anabolic steroid.
3/5/2024: The Washington Nationals are a team to watch. There is a chance that they choose to break camp with both Dylan Crews and James Wood on the roster, which would make them an infinitely more fun team to watch while also boosting those players' specific chances at winning ROY if Yoshinobu Yamamoto can't follow through. Wood, who was one of the pieces to come over from the Juan Soto trade in 2022, is tearing the cover off the ball this spring. Through eight games, Wood is 8-for-16 with three home runs and six walks. Like with Langford, this won't necessarily translate to the regular season right away, but he's giving the Nationals something to consider before Opening Day.
2/14/2024:
2/6/2024:
1/16/2024:
Covers MLB betting tools
Past Rookie of the Year winners
Previous AL RoY winners
Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 72 years.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS) |
| 2022 |  Julio Rodriguez (OF) |
| 2021 |  Randy Arozarena (OF) |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis (OF) |
| 2019 |  Yordan Alvarez (OF) |
| 2018 |  Shohei Ohtani (P/OF) |
| 2017 |  Aaron Judge (OF) |
| 2016 |  Michael Fulmer (SP) |
| 2015 | Carlos Correa (SS) |
| 2014 |  Jose Abreau (1B) |
| 2013 | Wil Myers (OF) |
Popular MLB futures markets
Previous NL RoY winners
No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.
However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed five of the last 11 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, and even a reliever.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2023 |  Corbin Carroll (OF) |
| 2022 |  Michael Harris (OF) |
| 2021 |  Jonathan India (2B) |
| 2020 |  Devin Williams (RP) |
| 2019 |  Pete Alonso (1B) |
| 2018 | Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF) |
| 2017 |  Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) |
| 2016 | Cory Seager (SS) |
| 2015 |  Kris Bryant (3B) |
| 2014 | Jacob deGrom (SP) |
| 2013 |  Jose Fernandez (SP) |
MLB RoY odds explained
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Julio Rodriguez all but claimed the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number down the stretch.
- Julio Rodriguez -4,000
That means that a bettor in September had to wager $4,000 to win $100 by betting on J-Rod to win AL RoY. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.
- Corbin Carroll +380
That means a bettor would profit $380 for a $100 wager on Carroll before the season started if he's ultimately successful (which he was!).
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ
Texas Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford is the betting favorite across the board.
Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes is by far the betting favorite on the Senior Circuit.
Baltimore 3B/SS Gunnar Henderson and Arizona OF Corbin Carroll won their respective Rookie of the Year awards and were voted on unanimously.
MLB rules state a player is considered a rookie unless he has 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 total days on an active MLB roster prior to September 1.
