The regular season is over, and now we wait for the awards races to settle. The MLB Rookie of the Year odds have favored Kevin McGonigle most of the year in the American League, and that's likely how it will shake out.
However, the National League may be tighter than it seems, as Carson Benge finished strong and offers legitimate competition for Sal Stewart.
Let's explore the markets and MLB odds for AL and NL Rookie of the Year.
- Key Takeaways:
- McGonigle owns AL
- Benge has a shot
Odds to win 2026 AL Rookie of the Year
Odds last updated on 9-28. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Odds to win 2026 NL Rookie of the Year
Odds as of 9-28. For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Trade on MLB at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $50 trading bonus after you deposit $10 to trade on any other event contracts!
*Eligible locations only
MLB Rookie of the Year favorites
Kevin McGonigle, Tigers (93%)
Kevin McGonigle finished his rookie campaign by hitting .278/.376/.430 with 18 home runs and 12 stolen bases while playing in 156 games. He led all MLB rookies with 707 plate appearances and 5.4 fWAR.
Parker Messick is his closest competition, and the Cleveland Guardians lefty finished with a 12-9 record, 2.56 ERA, and 193 strikeouts in 186 1/3 innings. He led all rookie pitchers with 4.9 fWAR.
Ultimately, McGonigle's steady hand will win the day, but Messick is worthy of his flowers as well.
Sal Stewart, Reds (66%)
Sal Stewart played every single game for the Cincinnati Reds this season (one of seven players to hit 162 GP this season — Pete Alonso played all 161 of Baltimore's games as the final one was outright canceled). He slashed .263/.330/.457 and led all NL rookies with 32 home runs and 111 RBI while stealing a surprising 15 bases.
However, he was worth just 1.9 fWAR (sixth among NL rookies) and had a 112 wRC+ (also sixth). He will likely win Rookie of the Year, as JJ Wetherholt got hurt and didn't do enough with the bat to ultimately justify his inclusion.
Still, it isn't set in stone, which is why he's only at a 66% probability.
Player to watch
Carson Benge, Mets (31%)
Carson Benge was a preseason pick of mine, and he labored through April, batting .189 with a pair of home runs in his first 27 games. Something changed in May. Since May 1, Benge slashed .299/.363/.457 with 18 home runs and 16 stolen bases, finishing with 20 and 22, becoming the first New York Mets rookie to ever post a 20/20 season.
Votes have yet to be cast, so I think it's premature to write the outfielder off.
MLB Rookie of the Year futures predictions
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 JJ Wetherholt |
21.28% | May 11 | 1 |
 Andrew Painter |
25% | March 24 | 0.25 |
 Carson Benge |
4.76% | March 11 | 0.25 |
 Bubba Chandler |
6.67% | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Chase DeLauter |
4.76% | February 25 | 0.25 |
Previous ROY picks thread
5/11: Wetherholt
My National League bets have all floundered to varying degrees, so I'll cut bait and grab St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt for one unit. I like Nolan McLean as a dark horse to win the NL Cy Young, so he's tempting here as a hedge alongside Wetherholt, but I'm going to single out the infielder. With Sal Stewart scuffling, Wetherholt should have the shortest odds among position players. He's batting leadoff for the Cardinals and is displaying the power-speed combo that had him near the top of draft rankings ahead of 2024 when St. Louis took him seventh overall (an absolute fleecing). His .250 BABIP also tells me that better days are coming for the .235/.350/.405 slash line. He's also the only qualified position-player rookie worth more than 1.0 fWAR on the Senior Circuit, and some of that comes from his elite glovework at the keystone.
3/24: Painter
I can't shake the value of Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter, so I put .25 units on him, bringing my spring futures tally to one full unit for Rookie of the Year markets. So much can go wrong that I play it fairly conservatively before Opening Day. But Painter had similar hype to Paul Skenes before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. Now, with a full season in the minors under his belt following the surgery, he's opening the season in the Phillies' rotation. And unless things go unfathomably sideways, I like him to stick around instead of Taijuan Walker when Zack Wheeler is healthy. Regardless, I expected the number to move, and when it didn't, I decided I'd take the plunge.
3/11: Benge
Carson Benge screamed through the minors in 2025, slashing .281/.385/.472 with 15 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 116 games across three levels. Even with a hiccup in Triple-A, I'm not deterred. He struck out just 17.7% of the time compared to a 13.1% walk rate while boasting a 150 wRC+. He basically looks like the next Kyle Tucker.
2/25: Chandler + DeLauter
Bubba Chandler wasn't as highly touted as Skenes, but he wasn't super far off, either. He posted a 1.83 ERA over his first 39 1/3 innings at Triple-A in 2024. Those numbers took a bit of a dive last season, but his first taste of MLB hitting went pretty well. The 4.02 ERA wasn't amazing, but he had a low walk rate, didn't surrender home runs, and had a 2.66 FIP that suggests at least some positive regression. With Griffin taking all the headlines at Pittsburgh Pirates camp, it's perhaps easy to forget that Chandler likely has a rotation spot on Opening Day unless things go all the way sideways this spring. His ace upside is enough to take a flier here.
Chase DeLauter is currently projected to open the season in the Cleveland Guardians outfield. Injuries have slowed his progression a bit, but he is a dangerous hitter, which is exactly what Cleveland needs. He doesn't strike out (15.8% K-rate in 42 minor-league games last year) and has major home run potential from the left side.
Popular MLB futures markets
Past Rookie of the Year winners
For a look back at recent MLB Rookie of the Year award winners, check below and SportsOddsHistory.
Previous AL RoY winners
Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 73 years.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Nick Kurtz (1B) |
| 2024 |  Luis Gil (SP) |
| 2023 |  Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS) |
| 2022 |  Julio Rodriguez (OF) |
| 2021 |  Randy Arozarena (OF) |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis (OF) |
| 2019 |  Yordan Alvarez (OF) |
| 2018 |  Shohei Ohtani (P/OF) |
| 2017 |  Aaron Judge (OF) |
| 2016 |  Michael Fulmer (SP) |
Previous NL RoY winners
No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.
However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed six of the last 13 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, a catcher, and even a reliever.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Drake Baldwin (C) |
| 2024 |  Paul Skenes (SP) |
| 2023 |  Corbin Carroll (OF) |
| 2022 | Michael Harris (OF) |
| 2021 |  Jonathan India (2B) |
| 2020 |  Devin Williams (RP) |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (1B) |
| 2018 | Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF) |
| 2017 |  Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) |
| 2016 | Cory Seager (SS) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links
MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ
Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle is drawing the shortest odds in the American League.
Cincinnati Reds 1B Sal Stewart has the best odds to win NL ROY in 2026.
Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz won the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year while Atlanta Braves C Drake Baldwin earned the NL honors.
MLB rules state a player is considered a rookie unless he has 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 total days on an active MLB roster prior to September 1.
