The San Diego Padres (55%) are clear favorites over the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 tonight, and I'm backing the home team with Cubs vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks.
Michael King gives the Friars an advantage over Matthew Boyd, who has allowed at least three runs in five of his past eight starts.
Factor in San Diego's superior bullpen, and they should have the more reliable pitching throughout. First pitch is at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 29 at Petco Park on Peacock.
Who will win Cubs vs Padres today: San Diego Padres (55%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I'm on the San Diego Padres to 56%.
Michael King ranks in the 93rd percentile in pitching run value and has suppressed runs especially well at home.
He owns a 2.74 ERA while averaging a healthy 5.8 innings per start. He’s consistently getting the Padres to their high-leverage relievers, who can then clamp things down.
The Padres lead the majors with a wRC+ of 127 in September and rank inside the Top 5 against pitchers of both handedness. They’re well equipped to support King no matter who is on the mound.
COVERS INTEL: King's 89th percentile ranking in hard-hit suppression will help him slow a powerful Cubs offense that finished third in home runs.
Cubs vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
The Under is appealing up to 57%.
King’s ability to limit runs has led to plenty of low-scoring games in San Diego. The Padres posted an 11-3-1 record to the Under in home starts, and were 6-0-1 when isolating opponents over .500.
They have a stable of elite relievers backing King up, making it difficult for the Chicago Cubs to get a rally going.
While the Padres are in a decent offensive spot early, things could get tougher against Chicago’s bullpen. They quietly rank 13th in average allowed and second in hard-hit rate this month.
Cubs vs Padres home run prediction: Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill has torn the cover off the baseball in September, posting elite power metrics across the board.
He leads the Padres in almost every major category, most notably barreling the ball at a 19.6% clip while generating hard contact 59.7% of the time.
His xSLG is above .600 against both lefties and righties, so it’ll be difficult for Craig Counsell to find a matchup that neutralizes his power.
The Cubs bullpen also sits 22nd in HR/FB in September.
- ML/RL picks: 127-105, -2.95 units
- Over/Under picks: 121-105-6, +1.64 units
Cubs vs Padres weather
With temperatures in the low 70s and little to no wind, the weather should have a neutral impact on run production in this game.
Cubs vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Cubs 47% | Padres 55%
- Run line: Cubs +1.5 (65%) | Padres -1.5 (37%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (46%) | Under 7.5 (55%)
Cubs vs Padres trend
The Padres have hit the moneyline in 33 of their last 45 home games (+19.30 units, 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres.
How to watch Cubs vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, Calif. |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (10-5, 3.91 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA) |
Cubs vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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