Cam Schlittler takes the ball at home for New York, and I'm riding with him as part of my Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction for Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series.
The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox as 59% favorites and should be able to handle business with their Cy Young candidate on the mound — with or without Aaron Judge.
Tap into my MLB picks and let's begin the playoffs with some extra cash in our wallet.
Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees today: Yankees
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Cam Schlittler started against the Boston Red Sox four times across the 2026 MLB season: to say he dominated would be an understatement.
Over 24 1/3 innings, he posted a 0.74 ERA and struck out 27. Simply put, he was nearly unhittable, and the Red Sox have some work to do if they want to take Game 1 of the Wild Card series.
Payton Tolle takes the mound for Boston, and while he's had similar success in this spot in a smaller sample size (0.69 ERA across 13 1/3 innings), I'm leaning toward the New York Yankees' star power and their ability to hit lefties.
The pinstripes actually own better splits here, rocking a .733 OPS against southpaws.
I'd play this to 61%.
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Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 5.5
We have two aces on the mound who have dominated this matchup all year, with both Schlittler and Tolle rocking a sub-1 ERA against their AL East rival.
Yes, Schlittler is the likely Cy Young this season, but Tolle is no slouch — his .199 xBA, 36% chase rate, and 28% K rate this season is among the best in baseball.
When you tie in their walk rate (both are issuing the free pass at just a 6% clip), each offense will have to earn it. No matter which angle you attack this one at, it smells like an Under.
Comfortably play this to 57%.
COVERS INTEL: Expect plenty of swing-and-miss in Game 1. Thirteen hitters across both lineups finished the regular season with strikeout rates of 25% or higher, and with two elite strikeout pitchers taking the mound, offense will be at a premium.Red Sox vs Yankees weather
We'll see cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at 60 degrees at first pitch, which won't impact the game.
- ML/RL picks: 10-16, -3.65 units
- Over/Under picks: 15-11, +3.84 units
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 44% | Yankees 57%
- Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (65%) | Yankees -1.5 (36%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (49%) | Under 6.5 (53%)
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittler's last five starts as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC, Peacock |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Payton Tolle (9-6, 3.03 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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