The final game of this NL series gets underway on Thursday with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers at American Family Field. MLB odds have Los Angeles as a -140 betting favorite and that's where my Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions are looking.
My MLB picks are bullish on the favorite, primarily due to who's taking the mound.
Dodgers vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers -1.5 (+125 at bet365)
My analysis
Jack Flaherty looks to continue his tremendous campaign for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday. The deadline acquisition is 9-5 through 20 starts with a commanding 2.97 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Analytically speaking, we should expect this dominance to continue as Flaherty ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and walk rate. We should expect this form to continue against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team he's 2-1 against over the past six meetings with a stellar 1.93 ERA.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee hands the ball to rookie Tobias Myers. He’s put together a strong season thus far, but he's not on Flaherty’s level. Flaherty outranks Myers in WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. That's not where the L.A.'s advantages stop, given they possess the superior lineup.
This year, L.A. outranks the Brewers in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs. I believe there's more value in the Dodgers’ run line at +125 rather than laying -140 on the moneyline, given they've won by 4+ runs in both of Flaherty’s starts.
We're also getting an extra 5-7 cents at bet365, so take advantage.
Dodgers vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers -1.5
Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 strikeouts
Brice Turang Under 0.5 hits
I want to further back Flaherty in the strikeout department, considering he ranks in the 94th percentile in both whiff and strikeout rates. Subsequently, he's recorded 7+ punchouts in five of his past seven starts.
If we're backing the Dodgers to win by 2+ runs on the crux of Flaherty’s dominance on the mound, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Milwaukee to struggle at the dish. Brice Turang is hitless through five career plate appearances against Flaherty and has also failed to record a hit in four of his past five games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Brewers odds
Dodgers vs Brewers live odds
Dodgers vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+125) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -140 | Milwaukee +120
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Dodgers vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as a -140 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I only expect this line to widen, due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 8 and remains as such.
- Tobias Myers is a strong pitcher as well, and although I rate Flaherty higher, I could see both of these guys throwing strong games and would be shocked if this total reached 8.5.
Dodgers vs Brewers trend
The Dodgers have won by 4+ runs in each of Jack Flaherty's two starts since the acquisition. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers.
Dodgers vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet Los Angeles, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (9-5, 2.97 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Tobias Myers (6-5, 2.79 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Brewers latest injuries
Dodgers vs Brewers weather
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