The Texas Longhorns host the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday, Oct. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET in Austin as a 20.5-point favorite with a 50.5 total.
My Mississippi State vs. Texas prediction analysis starts with a major quarterback injury and one of the nation’s best defenses in our college football picks for Week 9.
TOP PICK
Who will win Mississippi State vs Texas: Texas -20.5
Give me the Texas Longhorns -20.5, up to -23.5, because they have one of the best defenses in the country and the Mississippi State Bulldogs lost superstar QB Kamario Taylor to a season-ending injury earlier this week.
When you adjust for schedule, Texas leads the nation in defensive EPA per play, according to GameOnPaper.com. The Longhorns haven't allowed more than 27 points in game this season, which includes wins over Ohio State while QB Julian Sayin was still healthy and Ole Miss last week.
Mississippi State has gotten crushed when playing tougher teams over the last three weeks. The Bulldogs have a three-game losing and non-covering streak while averaging just 12.7 points in losses to Alabama, LSU and Oklahoma.
COVERS INTEL: Texas' defense has a strength-on-weakness edge over Mississippi State's offense in pass protection: The Longhorns' defense is 26th nationally in sack rate and the Bulldogs rank 110th in sack rate allowed on offense.
Mississippi State vs Texas Over/Under pick: Under 50.5
The Under 50.5 is tradable down to 48.5. Simply put, this should be a one-sided beatdown, but Texas' offense isn't good enough to run up the score.
The Longhorns rank 106th nationally in offensive EPA per play, according to GameOnPaper.com, and their biggest weakness plays directly into one of Mississippi State's few defensive strengths.
Texas can't run the ball, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, while the Bulldogs allow only 3.7 yards per rush. That should make it difficult for Texas to keep piling up points once it builds a comfortable lead.
Since joining the SEC in 2024, Texas is 7-13-1 O/U in conference games.
Mississippi State vs Texas combo
I’m looking for Texas to come out pissed off, punch Mississippi State in the mouth early, and then spend the rest of the night sitting on this game.
That gives me a path to all three legs without needing anything crazy. The Longhorns can cover the first quarter, keep building separation, and then let their defense and the clock do the heavy lifting once things get ugly.
Basically, give me Texas up big, Mississippi State going nowhere, and a second half that feels like everyone is just trying to get home.
Mississippi State vs Texas combo
- Texas -20.5
- Under 50.5
- Texas -5.5 first quarter
- Top picks: 15-22, -8.40 units
- Combos: 3-34, -24.84 units
Mississippi State vs Texas odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Mississippi State +20.5 | Texas -20.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (53%) | Under 50.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Mississippi State 11% | Texas 93%
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Mississippi State vs Texas weather
Temperatures are supposed to be in the mid-70s in Austin Saturday with three mph winds and a 9.0% chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Mississippi State vs Texas trend to know
The Bulldogs are 1-2 against the spread vs. ranked teams this season with a -12.5 spread differential. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Texas.
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How to watch Mississippi State vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mississippi State vs Texas latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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