Best NFL Picks Today

Christian Watson is trading at 41% on Kalshi to score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football against the Carolina Panthers, and I'll hit the button at that price as I value his chances closer to 47%. With Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson still out at cornerback, and the Panthers deploying single-high coverage at a much higher rate than most teams, Watson should have opportunities to exploit one-on-one matchups on the boundary. Those isolation routes give him a chance to win his matchup and find the end zone.

Travis Hunter broke out in Week 6, and although he wasn't running a ton of routes, he was targeted on four of his seven routes. Brian Thomas' role is falling off a cliff, and Liam Cohen is talking about "chomping away" at Hunter's increased role in the offense going forward. He isn't going to see 100 snaps, but his offensive role looks like it could slowly increase each week. The talent is there, and 13% doesn't seem like enough of an adjustment coming out of the bye. He shouldn't be less probable to score than Josh Cameron or Thomas.

I'm buying some Tony Pollard this week vs. the Bengals and willing to take this to 1.91x (52.4%). He had 28 RB opportunities last week, accounting for 88% of the backfield workload. The Titans don't want Cam Ward throwing 35 times a game, and Pollard will get fed even when trailing, especially in a neutral game script. This offense ranks dead last in PROE, and Tyjae Spears, who missed last week, had just one carry in Week 6. Pollard has one of the safest roles in any offense and has as many red-zone carries as Jonathan Taylor on the season.

Coming back from Europe with no bye is a death sentence for most teams, as they're a cool 0-8 ATS in the last eight of these situations. Pittsburgh's offense didn't look great vs. the Saints, so the TD choice in this game is pretty easy for me. The Steelers have allowed the fewest rushing TDs to opposing running backs in football, but after hitting Denzel Boston for two weeks with nothing to show for it, it's KC Concepcion for me. He had 10 targets last week and passed Boston for the team lead in target share. He also carried the ball three times, which is something the Browns might have to get creative with again this week against that Pittsburgh defense. I got this at 27% and would buy at 29%.

Aaron Jones exited last week, but even before the injury, Jordan Mason was eating up the biggest share of the RB pie with 57% of the backfield opportunities. Jones has always struggled to stay healthy and aggravated an existing knee injury last week. Mason could be the lead back on a defense-first team that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in PROE.  The Lions are one of seven teams allowing 27+ points per game and rank 27th in red-zone TD%. Jones didn't practice Wednesday, and this price should be 54% if he's out.

Baker is back, and the Buccaneers didn't need to pass much last week, finishing with the lowest PROE in football. That will be very tough to replicate, which should mean a bigger workload for Chris Godwin, who operated as WR1 with Emeka Egbuka out. Egbuka is dealing with multiple injuries, including a concussion, so his return to the field isn't guaranteed this week. The worst Godwin can be is WR2 against a defense that has given up 105 points over its last four games. I got this at 27% and would play to 32% if Egbuka sits and 30% if he plays.

I think if you're choosing between Bam Knight and Tyler Allgeier, you're taking the latter at 31% vs. Knight at 39%. That's too big of a difference when Allgeier has four more carries over the last two weeks and six red-zone opportunities. Neither is a bad choice vs. the Cowboys, who just gave up 121 rushing yards to the Eagles on Monday night and two rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Dallas is a bottom-tier team at defending the position. Bam might be doing more with his carries, but I'd rather back volume, which comes with less variance. I got Allgeier at 31% and would play him to 33%.

One of the first stats I look at when evaluating taking an Under is red-zone touchdown conversion rate, and this matchup features two of the NFL's least efficient offenses inside the 20-yard line. The Jets come into this one with a paltry 45% red-zone touchdown rate, with the Raiders not too far behind, converting at just 46%. No matter which way you attack this game, it's difficult to see a ton of points being scored. While the Raiders leave a lot on the table defensively, the Jets offense, with just four rushing touchdowns to its name this year behind their 16th-ranked offensive line, won't do enough with the ball to get this one over the line.

Zay Flowers' TD price has ranged from 2.15x to 3.1x, but if Lamar Jackson is in and this Buffalo defense doesn't trade for an entirely new secondary, Flowers should be closer to 41% to score Sunday. Jackson practiced in a limited fashion last week, and Flowers has a TD and 100+ receiving yards in 50% of his games this year despite the injuries at quarterback. Buffalo's defense allows the most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in football at 1.4 per game. 

The Chargers could get two top WRs back on the field along with starters on the offensive line. Those are big positives for QB Justin Herbert. On defense, the L.A. secondary could get a restock in talent with CBs Donte Jackson and Rodney Shelley practicing and S Derwin James working his way back from a hammy. This is essentially a neutral-site game in SoFi Stadium against a Rams squad that’s picked up wins over Las Vegas, Philadelphia, and the N.Y. Giants. Not exactly the resume of a Super Bowl contender.

New England QB Drake Maye paces the NFL in adjusted EPA per play over the past four weeks, and the Pats are third in offensive DVOA with an average of 31 points per game during the surge. Miami checks in 31st in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA for the season, so with New England also having the benefit of extra rest and preparation time after playing Thursday Night Football in Week 7, the Dolphins are in tough and overmatched Sunday.

This prop is in play to 50% because Denver has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, and the Broncos have already allowed five QBs to scramper for 15 or more yards across their seven games. Mahomes has also rushed seven times for 30 yards the past two weeks, and the Broncos topping the league in PFF pass rush grade will have the veteran QB on the move early and often Sunday. Of course, Mahomes has totalled a healthy 5.75 yards per scramble this season, too.

To the Eagles’ credit, they were able to hang tough on MNF with a backup QB missing his top two WRs and a rusty Saquon Barkley coming back from injury. Philadelphia actually ranked No. 5 in EPA per play through the first 45 minutes among all Week 7 offenses. Washington gets little support from the stop unit, which is ranked in the bottom 10 in many key metrics like success rate allowed, opponent third down conversions, and red zone defense (dead last with foes enjoying an almost 82% TD rate).