Survivor pools have punished chalk lately, making NFL Survivor picks especially challenging entering Week 8. Cincinnati is my safest target against Tennessee, while Jacksonville offers a riskier path against Indianapolis.
I’m also steering clear of two tempting favorites, and keeping a pair of contrarian options in mind.
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Bengals
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PatriotsPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Week 8 Survivor Pool first look
Disclaimer: My "target" team will likely be the most popular selection in Survivor this week, and the biggest favorite has lost three straight weeks. Meaning, open your heart to "contrarian picks."
That said, I'd consider the Washington Commanders over the Philadelphia Eagles. Washington had a bye last week, while Philly will play on short rest after hosting the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football in Week 7. Plus, the Eagles are missing Jalen Hurts and at least two starting offensive linemen from their Week 1 roster.
Another "contrarian pick" could be the Buffalo Bills over the Baltimore Ravens, especially if Lamar Jackson is out again with an injury. Nevertheless, Buffalo is coming off its bye week, and Baltimore hasn't beaten a team with a winning record this season.
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Teams to target in Week 8
Safe pick: Bengals (vs Titans)
Because the Cleveland Browns are one of the surprise teams so far this season, hosting Tennessee is the best spot to use Cincy. The Titans are less desperate after winning their first game in Week 6, and the Bengals are fully healthy and just played their best offensive game of the season Sunday.
Risky pick: Jaguars (vs Colts)
Indianapolis is worse than its 2-5 record indicates, and Colts QB Daniel Jones will cost head coach Shane Steichen his job. Jacksonville had a bye last week after losing to the Houston Texans 34-31 in London, and the Jaguars are 4-1 straight-up (SU) following a loss since the start of last season.
Teams to avoid in Week 8
Rams (vs Chargers)
The Rams suffered the biggest loss by a favorite against the Arizona Cardinals two weeks ago and have injuries on both sides of the ball, including to All-Pro WR Davante Adams. Technically, the Chargers are the "road team," but they are playing in their home building off a bye and could be getting healthier.
Patriots (@ Dolphins)
Simply put, I was impressed by Miami's 28-25 win on the road over the New York Jets Sunday. Also, regardless of the era/coaching staff/roster, New England struggles in South Beach: The Patriots are 3-7 SU and against the spread vs. the Dolphins in their last 10 meetings in Miami.
Week 8 Survivor Pool strategy
Three teams I'm looking to fade the rest of this season are the Titans, Colts, and Eagles, and the first two are in my "target" and "risky" picks.
With that in mind, the Jaguars hosting Tennessee in Week 12 is probably a better spot than Indy coming to Jacksonville this week. If you have the Cowboys available, they host the Titans in Week 11, and the Detroit Lions host Tennessee in Week 14.
Besides the Jaguars this week, teams I'd fade Indy with include: At home against the New York Giants in Week 12, which would be a "contrarian pick," and at home against the Bengals in Week 16. Plus, the Colts could be trade deadline sellers and move All-Pro RB Jonathan Taylor, giving us another reason to fade them.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just injured beyond repair and this looks like a lost season, barring a miracle.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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