Keaton Mitchell has seen his workload increase and offers something different to Ravens' RB1 Derrick Henry. The Jets gave up three TDs to TreVeyon Henderson and can be taken advantage of by a smaller, quicker back.
There's a clear gap between these teams, but the Jets have been playing opponents too close to justify getting nearly two touchdowns against a Ravens team that isn't posting blowout wins.
Hall is a talented running back but he's held in check by being on a lousy Jets team. The Jets are 13.5-point road dogs in Week 12 against Baltimore who is 4-0 with an average scoring margin of +12.8 ppg since getting back Lamar Jackson. Baltimore's defense has made significant strides against the run. Through Week 5, the Ravens had allowed 146.4 rushing yards per game while ranking 32nd in defensive rush EPA. Since then they are allowing 96.6 yards per game on the ground while ranking third in defensive rush EPA. Combine that improved run D with what will likely be a negative game script for the Jets and Hall will have a tough time eclipsing his rushing yards prop.
The New York passing game should at least function on Sunday with Tyrod Taylor under center. John Metchie caught all three of his targets last week — not easy with Justin Fields in just his second game as a Jet — and turned one into a 22-yard touchdown. At +475, I’m backing him again. In Week 11, Metchie led all New York receivers in snap share and receiving yards. Adonai Mitchell continues to struggle with drops and is still priced 125 points shorter than Metchie. With Garrett Wilson sidelined, Metchie may operate as the WR1 in what should be a pass-heavy game script. I’d play this down to +350.
Baltimore’s other tight end has been gradually putting in more work since returning to play at the end of September, and that includes his role as a receiver. After being targeted a total of just five times in his first four games, Likely has drawn 12 targets over the last three games. The 6-foot-4 TE scored 13 TDs over the past two years but has yet to find the end zone in 2025. The Jets are just the team to end that drought, giving up seven scores to the position this season. Likely to strike-ly at +300.
The leading projections forecast the Ravens to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Mark Andrews has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Mark Andrews places in the 85th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 37.0 figure this year.. Mark Andrews grades out in the 93rd percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an exceptional 0.45 per game.. The New York Jets defense has been torched for the 2nd-most TDs through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.70 per game this year.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have only 128.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.. Lamar Jackson comes in as one of the most accurate QBs in football this year with an exceptional 68.5% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 79th percentile.. With a fantastic 8.49 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson places among the most effective passers in the NFL.. The Jets linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 4th-most in football.. Our trusted projections expect John Metchie III to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game in this contest (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.8% in games he has played).. This year, the poor Ravens defense has allowed a massive 165.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst in football.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have only 128.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.. This week, Mark Andrews is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.5 targets.. Mark Andrews has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 17.2% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among TEs.. The Jets linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
The leading projections forecast the Ravens to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Derrick Henry has totaled a staggering 1.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The Jets linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have only 128.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.0 targets.. Zay Flowers has been heavily involved in his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 28.7% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Zay Flowers ranks as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a fantastic 60.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.. Zay Flowers's 75.8% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a noteable gain in his pass-catching ability over last season's 65.7% mark.
At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 4th-most in football.. This year, the poor Ravens defense has allowed a massive 165.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst in football.
The Ravens have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 51.8 plays per game.. Derrick Henry has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (118.0).. Derrick Henry's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, averaging just 5.19 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 6.17 rate last year.
This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Ravens, who are overwhelmingly favored by 13.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 51.0% of their chances: the highest clip among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have only 128.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.. The projections expect Lamar Jackson to accrue 7.2 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.. This year, the poor New York Jets run defense has yielded a whopping 133.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 9th-worst in football.
New York Trends
Baltimore Trends