The biggest storyline for the AFC Championship Game is Jarrett Stidham.
The Denver Broncos backup quarterback is thrust into action against the New England Patriots, due to QB1 Bo Nix suffering an ankle injury.
Stidham is the “great unknown” this Sunday, but my Patriots vs. Broncos predictions believe it's business as usual for this Denver passing game.
Here are my best NFL picks for the AFC Championship Game on January 25.
Patriots vs Broncos prediction
Patriots vs Broncos Best bet: Jarrett Stidham Over 19.5 pass completions (-118)
Jarrett Stidham steps in to run a conservative passing playbook.
The Denver Broncos didn’t push the ball beyond the sticks often with Nix, ranking low in air yards, depth of target, and yards per attempt. Simplicity makes it easy to “plug and play” a backup without much drop-off.
The New England Patriots will sell out to stop the run and force things onto Stidham’s shoulders. Denver's offense will be pass-heavy while playing from behind.
There are positive injury updates for the Broncos WRs and centers, and player projections sit as high as 22 completions for Stidham.
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Patriots vs Broncos same-game parlay
The Broncos will be forced to pass more, and Stidham’s projections sit north of 200 yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson is leading the charge for the Patriots’ postseason offense, with projections north of 50 rushing yards.
Drake Maye faces one of the stingiest red-zone defenses in Denver, and will sprint for the goal line when plays break down.
Patriots vs Broncos SGP
- Jarrett Stidham Over 196.5 passing yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 rushing yards
- Drake Maye anytime TD
Our big-ticket SGP: “Stid-erella Man”
Stidham isn’t afraid to throw it and could have a “more confident” arm than Bo Nix. The Pats plug up the run, leaving Stidham to throw against the 23rd-ranked red zone defense.
Stidham has sneaky wheels. He’s no Nix but can escape when the Pats bring pressure. A QB keeper or a broken play in the RZ could see Stidham scrambling for the end zone.
Patriots vs Broncos SGP
- Jarrett Stidham Over 196.5 passing yards
- Jarrett Stidham Over 0.5 TD passes
- Jarrett Stidham Over 13.5 rushing yards
- Jarrett Stidham anytime TD
Patriots vs Broncos odds
- Spread: Patriots -4.5 | Broncos +4.5
- Moneyline: Patriots -245 | Broncos +200
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Patriots vs Broncos trend to know
The Broncos are 27-18 ATS (60%) as home underdogs since 2010. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Broncos.
How to watch Patriots vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Sunday, January 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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