Heading into Championship Sunday, the Denver Broncos must turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham after losing Bo Nix to an ankle injury.
That switch has flipped Denver from a 1.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line to as high as +5.5 at home against the New England Patriots.
That adjustment is intriguing when it comes to my NFL predictions, especially when you start handicapping the spread value of the Broncos’ QB swap.
Here are my latest NFL picks for January 25.
Last week: 2-0 ATS
Season: 34-22-2 ATS (+8.27 units)
NFL Conference Championship predictions and picks
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos +5.5 |
-115 |
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+5.5)
Best bet: Broncos +5.5
(-115 at FanDuel)
As mentioned, look-ahead lines set before the events of the Divisional Round had the Denver Broncos laying 1.5 points to the New England Patriots. After Bo Nix was ruled out for the remainder of the postseason, that spread jumped to Broncos +4.5.
That’s a 6-point move based on the switch to Stidham at quarterback, an adjustment not all oddsmakers agree with.
According to my buddy Ben Fawkes at Yahoo Sports, who polled a bunch of bookies about the impact of Denver’s QB issues, Nix is estimated to be worth around four points to the spread.
That’s not a huge drop, considering we’re talking about the starting QB for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Most quarterback injuries trigger a six- or seven-point adjustment (which we're seeing in the actual odds), but the oddsmakers’ modest spread value reflects, in part, the simplicity of the Broncos’ passing game.
Nix was rarely asked (or trusted) to throw the ball past the sticks. He ranked near the bottom in downfield stats like air yards, depth of target, and yards per completion, with a receiving corps built to generate yards after the catch rather than stretch the field vertically.
That’s a safe system for a backup, especially a veteran like Jarrett Stidham, who hasn’t thrown a pass that matters in two years.
And I will say, looking at preseason reps, Stidham may have a better arm than Nix — or at least a more “confident” arm when pushing the ball downfield. Granted, those throws were against exhibition defenses.
Public perception has helped push the AFC Championship spread as high as Denver +5.5 (it briefly reached +6 at some sportsbooks Sunday night before the Broncos’ buyback showed up Monday morning). Also fueling that rise are some notable injuries directly connected to Stidham’s success.
Receivers Troy Franklin (hamstring) and Pat Bryant (concussion) are questionable with two injuries that are tough to recover from quickly. The backup QB may also have a third-string center snapping him the ball, with starter Luke Wattenberg trying to come off the IR and replacement Alex Forsyth questionable with a nagging ankle injury.
The great equalizer in this matchup, of course, is Denver’s defense. The Broncos sat near the top of just about every defensive stat and advanced analytic this season, and they now offer one of the stiffest tests New England’s attack has faced this year.
The Patriots, who finished No. 1 in EPA per play in the regular season, are criticized for their strength of schedule. And if not for a catastrophic performance from Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud (4 INTs) last weekend, New England may not be making its way up the mountain.
Houston, which sat alongside Denver in those same defensive measurements, held the Patriots to 13 first downs on 3.9 yards per play in the Divisional Round. New England turned the ball over three times and reached the red zone just once, relying on a defensive touchdown to pad its 28–16 win in Foxborough.
Home field, thin air, and a coaching edge with Sean Payton and Vance Joseph add up in favor of the Stidham-led Broncos. While I don’t see a “Nick Foles-tian” path to the Super Bowl for Denver’s backup, I do believe this game has the potential to be much tighter than the tallest spread indicates.
My NFL Underdogs column is 34-22-2 ATS this season for +8.27 units.
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