All eyes in the AFC Championship Game are on Jarrett Stidham, who steps in for the Denver Broncos against the New England Patriots after QB1 Bo Nix went down with an ankle injury.
Stidham is the great unknown this afternoon, but my Patriots vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks believe it's business as usual for this Broncos passing game.
Patriots vs Broncos prediction
Patriots vs Broncos Best bet: Jarrett Stidham Over 19.5 completions (-118)
Jarrett Stidham steps in to run a conservative passing playbook.
The Denver Broncos didn’t push the ball beyond the sticks often with Nix, ranking low in air yards, depth of target, and yards per attempt. Simplicity makes it easy to “plug and play” a backup without much drop-off.
The New England Patriots will sell out to stop the run and force things onto Stidham’s shoulders. Denver's offense will be pass-heavy while playing from behind.
There are positive injury updates for the Broncos wideouts and centers, and player projections sit as high as 22 completions for Stidham.
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Patriots vs Broncos same-game parlay
The Broncos will be forced to pass more, and Stidham’s projections sit north of 200 yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson is leading the charge for the Patriots’ postseason offense, with projections north of 50 rushing yards.
Drake Maye faces one of the stingiest red-zone defenses in Denver, and will sprint for the goal line when plays break down.
Patriots vs Broncos SGP
- Jarrett Stidham Over 196.5 passing yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 rushing yards
- Drake Maye anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: “Stid-erella Man”
Stidham isn’t afraid to throw it and could have a “more confident” arm than Bo Nix. The Pats plug up the run, leaving Stidham to throw against the 23rd-ranked red zone defense.
He also has sneaky wheels. He’s no Nix but can escape when the Pats bring pressure. A QB keeper or a broken play in the RZ could see Stidham scrambling for the end zone.
Patriots vs Broncos SGP
- Jarrett Stidham Over 196.5 passing yards
- Jarrett Stidham Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
- Jarrett Stidham Over 13.5 rushing yards
- Jarrett Stidham anytime touchdown
Patriots vs Broncos game predictions
Patriots vs Broncos moneyline prediction
The Broncos are in a bad spot against a very good Patriots defense. While the home side may keep it closer than the point spread indicates, New England would be my lean to win outright, especially considering its 8-0 SU record on the road.
Patriots vs Broncos spread prediction
If you read my “NFL Underdogs” column, you’ll see I took Denver +5.5. This spread is trending down toward Patriots -4.5 at most books, with some positive injury updates for the Broncos' receivers, running backs, and offensive line.
I’d still lean Broncos +4.5, especially since that spread span (-4 to -4.5) is tricky for favorites. Chalk between -4 and -4.5 is just 4-15 ATS this season, and 45% going back to 2021. Those faves win (62% SU) but don't seem to cover.
Patriots vs Broncos Over/Under prediction
This total has ticked up to 42.5 points after opening as short as 40.5 O/U. I bet the Under earlier in the week, knowing we have two great defenses that don't allow explosive plays, a backup QB, and a Patriots attack that has sputtered in the postseason.
Patriots vs Broncos odds
- Spread: Patriots -4.5 | Broncos +4.5
- Moneyline: Patriots -245 | Broncos +200
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Patriots vs Broncos trend to know
The Broncos are 27-18 ATS (60%) as home underdogs since 2010. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Broncos.
How to watch Patriots vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Sunday, January 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Patriots vs Broncos latest injuries
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