The betting market has completely changed its tune on this NFC North showdown, and my Packers vs. Vikings prediction examines whether Minnesota deserves its newfound status as the favorite.
Kyler Murray makes his Vikings debut this afternoon with a chance to immediately put his stamp on the division, while Green Bay enters Week 1 without two major pieces in Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons.
Those absences have helped swing a line that once had Minnesota catching as many as 2.5 points to the Vikings laying 1.5 at home.
Read on for my NFL picks for Sunday, Sept. 13.
TOP PICK
Packers vs Vikings prediction: Vikings moneyline
I’m taking the Minnesota Vikings to win outright at 53%, and I’d lay anything south of 60% to avoid that tricky half-point hook on the spread.
The Green Bay Packers have Swiss cheese holes on offense entering Week 1. Running back Josh Jacobs is suspended, and the offensive line is under construction, rating out among the worst protections to start 2026.
If the Cheeseheads can’t get going on the ground, quarterback Jordan Love finds himself in bad spots. Not only does Green Bay’s playbook get one-dimensional, but long third downs play into the jaws of the Minnesota defense.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his chaos-causing pressure have kept Minnesota competitive – regardless of its QB – the past two seasons. It does it again in Week 1.
COVERS INTEL: The Vikings were No. 1 in pass rush win rate at ESPN last season and test a Packers offensive line that runs the risk of missing two starters: G Aaron Banks and T Zach Bako-Bewele. Both blockers are not 100%.
Packers vs Vikings combo
The Vikings defense goes for the throat against a Green Bay offensive line limping into Week 1. On top of that, the Cheeseheads are down their top running back, and the Packers defense is a different animal when Micah Parsons is sidelined.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s offense shines on the fast track inside U.S. Bank Stadium. Kyler Murray connects with Justin Jefferson for a touchdown, and his ability to play outside the pocket gives Kevin O’Connell’s red-zone playbook a shot in the arm.
I like Murray for 2+ touchdown passes for his debut in purple.
Packers vs Vikings combo
- Vikings moneyline
- Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown
- Kyler Murray Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Packers vs Vikings touchdown scorer: Justin Jefferson
Let’s not get fancy. I’ll trade Justin Jefferson to find the end zone up to 40% in Week 1.
Jefferson was patient with the Vikings’ QB quandary last season, and this move to Murray keeps the WR1 happy.
Despite poor passing, J.J. still ranked 10th versus zone coverage in 2025 at PFF and faces plenty of zone from new Packers DC Jonathan Gannon. Murray’s mobility and arm strength are excellent against zone, and he’ll look to get Jefferson going early.
Projections for Jefferson give between a 40% and 50% chance of a “griddy” on Sunday.
Packers vs Vikings player prop: Kyler Murray – Yes +2 passing touchdowns
Murray has a good idea of the defense he’ll face from former coach/Packers DC Jonathan Gannon in Week 1. He played it every day in practice for the past three years.
On top of being able to find Jefferson and Jordan Addison for deep TD connections, Murray’s ability to make plays outside the pocket gives O’Connell a new twist inside the 20-yard line. He has excellent jump ball options in burly WR Jauan Jennings and TE T.J. Hockenson.
Projections tick as high as 1.6 TD passes and Murray isn’t here just to hand the ball off. I’d play his 2+ touchdowns up to 48%.
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Packers vs Vikings odds
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- Spread: Packers +1.5 | Vikings -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (49%) | Under 46.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Packers 47% | Vikings 53%
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Packers vs Vikings weather
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Packers vs Vikings trend to know
Minnesota is 8-16 Over/Under inside U.S. Bank Stadium (67% Unders) since 2023. Sunday’s total sits at 46.5 O/U (Under 52%). Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Vikings.
How to watch Packers vs Vikings
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Packers vs Vikings latest injuries
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