My Packers vs. Lions prediction backs Detroit to overcome its slow start and cover -2.5 in the first half at Ford Field as the favorite.
Find out more of my angles in my NFL picks below. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX on Oct. 25.
TOP PICK
Packers vs Lions prediction: Lions first half -2.5
Slow starts were part and parcel for the Detroit Lions through their first five games. I expect that to change today.
The Lions are tied for the most points per game (32.8) and rank second in points per drive (3.09), despite scoring just one first-quarter touchdown while ranking 23rd in EPA per play and 19th in success rate in the opening quarter.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff has also averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt with a 23rd-ranked completion percentage over expected in the first quarter.
The extra time to prepare during the bye week has Detroit positioned to hit the ground running on the fast track at Ford Field.
In addition to Detroit getting center Cade Mays (wrist) and safety Brian Branch (Achilles) back for this NFC North matchup, I value Lions offensive coordinator Drew Petzing's familiarity with Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon after the two coached together with the Arizona Cardinals over the past three years.
I recommend this first-half spread up to 56%.
COVERS INTEL: The Packers rank 30th in both pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate, which further sets Detroit up for offensive success in Week 7.More NFL Week 7 picks and predictions
- Week 7 NFL top picks: Detroit's first-half spread is Neil Parker's top play for this game
- Week 7 NFL moneyline picks: another look at Detroit to win outright
- Week 7 NFL ATS picks: a different full-game angle backing Green Bay +3.5
Packers vs Lions combo
The Lions have played to the Over in all five games, and their defense has allowed the third-most points per game (29.6) and the highest EPA per play while ranking 25th in defensive DVOA. Joe Osborne is also backing Over 53.5 in his Week 7 NFL Over/Under picks.
This is going to be a back-and-forth shootout, and with Goff set up for early success, I'm expecting him to pick up 26 or more completions for the fourth time in six games.
Green Bay has middling ranks in dropback success rate (22nd) and completion percentage allowed (15th), too. That same Goff 26+ completions angle is also featured in our Week 7 NFL player prop picks.
- Lions first half -2.5
- Over 53.5
- Jared Goff 26+ completions
This exact three-leg play is featured in our Week 7 NFL expert combo picks. For more same-game parlays, see our NFL parlay and SGP picks.
Packers vs Lions touchdown scorer: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Detroit wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown has picked up 20 red-zone targets for a 41% team share through five games, and he's scored 38 times across 55 games since the beginning of the 2023 season.
Goff sports an elite 116.6 NFL passer rating when targeting St. Brown, and the go-to receiver hasn't found the end zone since Week 3.
I recommend this TD prop up to 58%.
For more scoring opportunities across today's slate, see our Week 7 NFL anytime touchdown picks.
Packers vs Lions player prop: Jared Goff 26+ completions
Returning to Goff’s slow starts, his ranks in adjusted EPA per play and success rate skyrocket from 30th and 24th in the first quarter to first- and second-ranked marks across the final three frames.
Of course, Goff threw for 8.7 yards per attempt with a 76.0 completion percentage in the first quarter over the past two seasons, too.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 35-30, +3.78 units
- Combos: 0-12, -12.0 units
Packers vs Lions odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Packers +3.5 | Lions -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (51%) | Under 53.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Packers 38% | Lions 62%
Follow the Packers vs. Lions market prices on Kalshi up to kickoff.
For the full slate of NFL matchups, see our NFL odds board.
Packers vs Lions weather
Ford Field is fully enclosed, so outdoor weather won't affect this NFC North matchup.
See our NFL weather page for up-to-date information on every matchup.
Packers vs Lions trend to know
The Lions have hit the Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 units / 37% ROI). Find more Packers vs. Lions betting trends, or compare that scoring outlook with our Week 7 NFL AI score projections.
How to watch Packers vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Packers vs Lions latest injuries
See our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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