My Broncos vs. Cardinals prediction backs the Under in a matchup between two of the NFL's least explosive offenses.
Denver has hit the Under in five straight regular-season games with totals of 44 or lower, and the potential return of star cornerback Patrick Surtain II could spell even more trouble for Arizona's struggling passing attack.
The Broncos enter as 4.5-point road favorites with a 69% win probability in the latest market prices. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Here's my full breakdown and latest NFL picks for Oct. 25.
TOP Pick
Broncos vs Cardinals prediction: Under 42.5
Under 42.5, down to 41.5, is my favorite pick in this game.
The Denver Broncos have hit the Under in five straight regular-season games when the total has been 44 or lower, including three this season.
Denver could also get star cornerback Patrick Surtain II back after he returned to practice this week following a two-game absence.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals have one of the league's weakest receiving corps. If Surtain returns, Denver will have a strength-on-weakness advantage in pass coverage.
Per Pro Football Focus, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett rank 31st and 32nd in big-time throw rate, respectively. Neither passing offense looks likely to generate many explosive plays.
For a look at totals elsewhere on today's slate, see our Week 7 NFL Over/Under picks.
COVERS INTEL: According to Warren Sharp, Arizona ranks last in the NFL in offensive explosive play rate, with Denver coming in second-last.
Broncos vs Cardinals combo
Sean Payton's Broncos are 6-1 straight-up as road favorites since 2024.
The rest of the combo leans into Denver winning without needing the game to open up. A slower script should limit possessions and give Broncos running back R.J. Harvey plenty of chances to operate underneath as an extension of the run game.
That's the sweet spot here: Denver controls the pace, avoids a shootout, and lets Harvey pile up easy yards in space while protecting the lead.
- R.J. Harvey 25+ receiving yards
- Under 42.5
- Broncos moneyline
This three-leg play is also featured in our Week 7 NFL expert combo picks. For more player markets, compare Harvey's receiving line with the Covers prop projections.
Broncos vs Cardinals touchdown scorer: RJ Harvey
Harvey's anytime touchdown prop is tradable up to 28%. He has been the more efficient runner in Denver's backfield, posting a 57.1% rushing success rate compared to 38.3% for J.K. Dobbins.
More importantly, Harvey leads Denver with 23 receptions, giving him another path to the end zone beyond his rushing work. That receiving role could become even more important if Jaylen Waddle, who was on the injury report with a chest issue this week, is limited today.
Even though I expect a lower-scoring game, Harvey doesn't need Denver to light up the scoreboard. He can cash this prop on the ground or through the air.
For other scoring threats across the slate, check out our Week 7 NFL anytime touchdown picks.
Broncos vs Cardinals player prop: RJ Harvey 25+ receiving yards
I’ll play this up to 27+ yards. Harvey's average target comes 2.6 yards behind the line of scrimmage, but he’s generated 231 yards after the catch.
Payton doesn’t need to scheme Harvey downfield to clear this number. He just needs to get him touches in space.
The matchup helps, too. Arizona linebackers Mack Wilson Sr. and Jack Gibbens rank near the bottom of PFF’s coverage grades. Harvey has cleared 25 receiving yards in three of five games, and another four- or five-catch workload should put him right in range.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
More Week 7 NFL picks and predictions
Broncos vs Cardinals odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Broncos -4.5 | Cardinals +4.5
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (55%) | Under 42.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Broncos 69% | Cardinals 36%
See our NFL moneyline picks for every Week 7 game.
- Top picks: 7-8, -1.70 units
- Combos: 4-11, +6.07 units
For the full slate of NFL matchups, see our NFL odds board.
Broncos vs Cardinals weather
State Farm Stadium has a retractable roof, with its open-or-closed status decided on game day. Weather will have no impact if the roof is closed.
See our NFL weather page for up-to-date information on every matchup.
Broncos vs Cardinals trend to know
The Under has cashed in the Broncos' last four road games. Find more Broncos vs. Cardinals betting trends, and compare this Under pick with the NFL AI score projections for Week 7.
How to watch Broncos vs Cardinals
| Location | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Broncos vs Cardinals latest injuries
See our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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