Jets vs Patriots Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 18: Nothing to Play For

The New York Jets and New England Patriots will end their disappointing seasons on Sunday in Foxborough in some weather that certainly parallels both clubs’ performances on the year. With heavy winds and likely snow/rain, bettors are staring at the lowest NFL total since 1993 at 30.5. 

With poor conditions for the lowest-scoring offense in football and the New England team total possibly riding on the leg of rookie kicker Chad Ryland, should bettors fade the Pats' team total one more time this season which the Under has hit in 13 of their last 20 games?

I break down the Week 18 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Jets vs. Patriots on Sunday, January 7. 

Jets vs Patriots odds

Jets vs Patriots predictions

It’s still a few days out and the weather can change, but this game could have serious NFL weather concerns which include 20-mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. There is also a great chance of rain/snow which is why the total is approaching the 20s. 

It’s also a game that will feature two terrible quarterbacks in Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian as well as two teams that will struggle to run the ball.

Zappe and Siemian are not going to march the wet/snowy field with big winds and won’t have much support from their running games either as the New York Jets and Breece Hall will continue to struggle especially vs. the elite New England Patriots run defense and the Pats’ O-line is wearing down as are the legs of Ezekiel Elliott who has just 91 yards on his last 37 carries (three games). 

So where does this leave me to find the best market to hit in a game that has the lowest total in 30 years? Let’s hit the Pats’ team total Under 16.5 one last time on the season. 

Neither offense projects well in this game, especially in these conditions, but the Pats have lost their run game, DeVante Parker exited last week, Hunter Henry is still out, and New England has the worst kicker in football which could be on display on Sunday. 

Rookie kicker Chad Ryland has missed nine of his 24 field goal tries this year and his 62.5 FG% ranks 33rd in the league on the season. These likely poor conditions aren’t going to help and New England will struggle to move the ball in general as Zeke is gassed and the Jets’ coverage is way better than the pass-catching talent in New England.

The Pats rank dead last in scoring on the season at 14.2 points per game and they aren’t exceeding their season average Sunday in awful weather conditions.  

My best bet: Patriots team total Under 16.5 (-125 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jets vs Patriots same-game parlay

Patriots team total Under 16.5 points

Successful 2-pt conversion — Yes

First score method — field goal

+3,000 at bet365

Let's get wild in an ugly game with not many prop markets open. The wind and weather could aid in a miss PAT which would increase the chances of a 2-pt try. Neither of these offenses can sustain long drives and the wind will make it much worse. The wind, however, looks to be going lengthwise on the field which could help with decisions to go for FGs of around 40 to 50 yards. Thirty-to-one for this seems a tad long and the multiplier I'm getting with the team total Under and 2-pt conversion might be very beneficial. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jets vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

Everything about this game in terms of betting comes down to the weather which looks like a bad time looking ahead. 

There are sustained winds of 20 mph expected and gusts up to 30. The winds are going to make it feel like it's in the low 20s at kickoff and the 32-degree weather will turn the 81% chance of precipitation into an ugly rain/wet snow situation. 

However, early-week bettors already took advantage of this information and hammered the Under — moving the total from 34.5 to 30.5 which is a a 30-year low in the sport.  

Neither team can run the ball currently and the passing conditions are looking terrible for a pair of brutal QBs. 

Looking at the sides, I do favor the Jets as a slight +1.5 dog which hasn’t seen much movement since the opening. Siemian is a tough QB to back, but New York has the better offensive talent in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. That is a much better duo than Elliott and Demario Douglas. 

The Jets also have a big advantage in passing defense and could take advantage of the weather conditions coupled with their elite coverage corners in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. Siemian has been a checkdown machine so his short passing game might be less affected by the strong winds and wet conditions.

The kicking game is also a spot I see where the visitors have another edge. Ryland has missed seven of his 16 kicks from inside 50 yards including two of six from 30 to 39 yards. On the other side, Greg Zuerlein has been nearly perfect for the Jets with a 94.1% success rate which is fourth-best in football. In such a low-total game, the spread could easily come down to the legs of either kicker and that edge lies with the Jets. 

The Pats have won 15 straight meetings, but that streak could snap on Sunday. 

Jets vs Patriots betting trend to know

The New England Patriots have only hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 20 games (-8.70 Units / -37% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Patriots.

Jets vs Patriots game info

Jets vs Patriots latest injuries

Jets vs Patriots weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic