NFL Week 18 Weather and Odds: Winds Will Blow in Regular Season Finales

With the final week of the NFL regular season stretching into January, it’s no surprise to see winter weather this weekend.

I dive into the extended forecasts for Saturday and Sunday and see how the rain, snow, and wind will impact the NFL Week 18 odds and outcomes.

Here is the weather to watch when making your NFL picks for the season finales.

Steelers at Ravens Weather

If John Harbaugh is still on the fence about letting his starters play in a meaningless Week 18 game, he might want to look at the forecast for Saturday’s home stand against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Things could get messy for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Rains will start in the late morning and continue throughout Saturday evening, with a 90% chance of light rains soaking the Bermuda grass surface at M&T Bank Stadium.

On top of that, some weather models are calling for sustained winds of 16 mph which will pick up in the second half with gusts blowing ENE up to 38 mph from corner to corner. Other extended forecasts have winds topping out around 20 mph, so keep an eye on the updates throughout the week.

This total is already very low, dropping from an opener of 38.5 points to 36.5 as of Tuesday morning. That number reflects the Baltimore Ravens likely sitting their stars on both sides of the ball (Baltimore is a 4-point home underdog).

Pittsburgh has seen an offensive uptick since making Mason Rudolph its starting quarterback and head coach Mike Tomlin has already committed to Rudolph in Week 18, even with QB1 Kenny Pickett on the mend.

If the forecast holds up — especially those stronger winds — expect things to shorten up offensively for both teams. Pittsburgh’s playbook has been run-heavy with Rudolph under center and Baltimore shouldn’t risk its key skill players, considering its history of injuries.

Jets at Patriots Weather

The 2023 NFL season was a mess for the New York Jets and New England Patriots, so it would seem only fitting the finale between these two downtrodden teams would be just that... a mess.

Sunday’s extended forecast calls for possible snow showers — a moderate mix of snow and rain — for at least the first three quarters of play before tapering off around 4 p.m. ET.

Some models call for sustained crosswinds of 16 mph with gusts blowing ESE at 30 mph, which will make game-time temperatures “feel like” the low 20s. Other extended forecasts have those gusts reaching 22 mph, so again, monitor the wind throughout the week.

This Over/Under total has already plummeted from an opener of 34.5 to as low as 30.5 points on Tuesday morning. And that move makes sense without taking the weather into account, as these AFC East offenses rank 29th and 32nd in the league.

If the Week 18 extended forecast pans out, this number could continue to slim. Should it close lower than its current spot of 30.5 points, it would be the shortest total since 1993.

Eagles at Giants Weather

Snow showers in East Rutherford are expected to stop before this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday but could show up again in the second half of this NFC East encounter, according to the extended forecast.

What’s more important is if the winds die down before things get underway between the Philadephia Eagles and New York Giants.

Some models call for sustained winds of 14 mph and wind gusts up to 27 mph Sunday afternoon, but those are expected to settle as the game goes on. Other forecasts call for light winds maxing out at 8 mph.

The Over/Under opened at 45.5 points and has sunk to as low as 41. This move isn’t in reaction to the potential weather but more about the Eagles scoreboard watching the Dallas-Washington game which also kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET.

With the Cowboys set as two-touchdown chalk in D.C., Philadelphia will likely have nothing to play for in the second half (locked into the No. 5 spot if Dallas wins in Week 18).

Should the Cowboys hold a big lead in their game, Philly head coach Nick Sirianni may opt to pull his starters to protect them before the postseason — a big reason why this spread sits on the dead number of Eagles -5.

Rams at 49ers Weather

The San Francisco 49ers have the NFC’s top seed wrapped up and the Los Angeles Rams punched their playoff ticket in Week 17, which doesn’t put too much on the line in Week 18.

Plans for the starters for these head coaches will come to light in the next few days, but while we wait for that, we can keep an eye on the winds in Santa Clara.

Extended forecasts call for sustained winds of 12 mph around the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff with gusts getting up to 23 mph blowing NW from corner to corner at Levi’s Stadium. Those breezes are expected to calm after the first quarter, with light winds for the remaining 45 minutes.

This total has bounced around 43 points and will reflect the starters’ status.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan says he won’t rest all of his starters, but we’ll likely see many stars sit out, considering running back Christian McCaffrey’s calf strain and the team’s history of being snake-bitten at the worst times.

Los Angeles, which is the hottest team with six wins in the last seven games, could opt to avoid rust over rest in Week 18. The Rams are currently 3.5-point road underdogs.

Bills at Dolphins Weather

The final game of the regular season could see some South Florida weather play a role in how the AFC East trickles down.

The extended forecast for Sunday Night Football has potential thunderstorms threatening Hard Rock Stadium around the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff, with some models calling for a 62% chance of precipitation and even a risk of hail later in the evening.

The surface in South Beach is Bermuda grass and any slickness may hinder the Miami Dolphins’ speedy offense that depends on yards after the catch and runs to the outside on a league-high 61% of handoffs. The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, run more downhill with the second-highest rate of A-gap runs.

Wind doesn’t appear to be an issue with gusts reaching 16 mph blowing NE from corner to corner. The Over/Under for this primetime pairing opened at 50 points and has come down a touch to 49 O/U.

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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