Falcons vs Dolphins Week 7 Picks and Predictions: Tua Tagovailoa On The Brink

Both teams are coming off London games the following two weeks and will look to get back to work on American soil. Falcons enter as 2.5-point favorites. Find out who we're backing in our Falcons vs. Dolphins picks.

Last Updated: Oct 24, 2021 11:44 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
Kyle Pitts Atlanta Falcons NFL
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Both the Falcons and Dolphins come into this after playing games in London, something you don’t see all that regularly. Miami might have forsaken their post-London bye week but they’ll be eager to get back to winning ways after losing to the Jaguars.

Meanwhile, the Falcons sit bottom of the NFC South with a 2-3 record but did show some promise during their trip to London with Kyle Pitts having his breakout game.

It’s going to be a tough game between two teams with losing records, so make sure you’re on the right end of the result by reading our NFL picks and predictions for the Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins.

Falcons vs Dolphins odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The line has moved 3.5 points since opening. The Dolphins were originally 1-point favorites but they’re now 2.5-point underdogs. The points total has also moved, dropping half a point from 48 to 47.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Falcons vs Dolphins picks

Picks made on 10/21/2021 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Falcons vs Dolphins game info

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Date: Sunday, October 24, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Falcons at Dolphins betting preview


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Key injuries

Falcons: Dante Fowler LB (Out), Kaleb McGary T (Out), Avery Williams CB (Out), Kendall Sheffield CB (Out).
Dolphins: DeVante Parker WR (Out), Greg Mancz C (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Dolphins.

Falcons vs Dolphins predictions

The Miami Dolphins are not in a good place. Having been expecting to progress this year they’re now bottom of their division with a 1-5 record and on the longest losing streak in the NFL. Last week they gave up a lead to lose a humbling defeat against the previously winless Jaguars. Since then, there has been more talk of a trade for Deshaun Watson. This doesn’t feel like a franchise pushing in the right direction.

Meanwhile their opponents on Sunday left London with their second win of the season despite missing their star receiver Calvin Ridley. It may only have been against the New York Jets, but their 27-20 victory was more dominant than the scoreline suggests and we finally saw the much awaited breakout of Kyle Pitts.

Over the past five weeks the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS and face a battle to cover at the Hard Rock Stadium as they welcome the Falcons. It wouldn’t be right to say that the Falcons are on a hot streak but they do feel like they’re moving in the right direction. They held the Jets to 230 yards last time out and gave Zach Wilson one of the worst days of his career so far. In addition, the Falcons offense is rolling and Matt Ryan is starting to look like the quarterback we’ve seen previously. In his past three games Ryan has thrown eight touchdown passes without throwing a single interception. 

The Dolphins aren’t coming into this game in a good place. They gave up a 10-point lead to the Jaguars in what was an embarrassing defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa’s stats weren’t awful as he returned from injury. Tagovailoa was wearing a flak jacket under his pads and still managed to put up 329 yards and pass for two touchdowns. Despite that he really didn’t look that impressive. His accuracy didn’t look brilliant and he was uninspiring for his team. In the days following the defeat there has been renewed talk about a move for the Texans embattled Deshaun Watson. That says all you need to know about Tagovailoa’s position in Miami, there’s no smoke without fire after all.

The Falcons are 9-3 ATS when they play a team with a losing record and it can’t get much worse than that of the Miami Dolphins. The Falcons come into this game after an extra week of rest and I’m backing them to cover here against a Dolphins team who haven’t quite hit rock bottom.

The Over is 4-0 in the Dolphins past four games after they’ve allowed 350+ total yards in their previous game. I’m expecting high scoring to continue here.

We’ll likely see Calvin Ridley suiting up for the Falcons again, potentially Russell Gage too, plus Kyle Pitts who broke out in Week 5. Suddenly that collection of receivers looks hugely improved and one which could feast on this Miami defense who have given up the joint-second highest total of points so far this season.

Ultimately the reason I’m so confident in the Over landing in this game is down to the bad defenses on offer with both teams. Both of these teams sit in the lowest seventh in the league when it comes to defensive DVOA. The Dolphins sit 26th in the league, four spots ahead of the Falcons. We’re going to see touchdowns here. Tua Tagovailoa could be playing for his career as the Dolphins franchise QB and he’ll be facing a Falcons offense who are starting to click. Take the Over here.

Kyle Pitts receiving yards total line sits at 49.5 points but that’s a total he’s reached in three of five appearances for the Falcons this season. Most notably in Week 5, his last appearance, where he went off for 119 yards and a touchdown. 

As a rookie he’s already been pushed into becoming a key contributor for this offense, something that happened even quicker due to Calvin Ridley’s injury. Even with Ridley returning it’s clear that Pitts is now a key part of this team. He’s been targeted 36 times so far this season and has 169 yards in the past two weeks.

As mentioned above Miami have a bad defense but when it comes to matching up against tight ends - they’re middle of the pack. They’ve given up an average of 51.83 yards per game to tight ends this season and now they’re facing a tight end who has lined up in the slot or as a WR in 79% of his snaps. The Falcons are committed to using Pitts as a receiver. When it comes to matching up against receivers the Dolphins are giving up an average of 210 yards per game, 30th in the league. Expect the rookie to feast again this week as he continues to grow his reputation in the league.

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