For so long a meeting between the Jets and Patriots meant a New England win but now this Divisional game feels even closer given the struggles of both teams.
It’s going to be a war on Sunday but can the Jets leave Foxborough with a win? It’ll be tough and Bill Belichick won’t want to surrender to his former team.
If you’re betting this game on Sunday, October 24th then make sure you read our NFL picks and predictions for the New York Jets vs. New England Patriots.
Jets vs Patriots odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
We’ve seen minor line movement as the week has progressed, with the points total decreasing from 43 points upon opening down to 42.5 points. The Patriots position has only strengthened with New England moving from 6.5-point favorites to 7-point favorites. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Jets vs Patriots picks
Picks made on 10/21/2021 at 6:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jets vs Patriots game info
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• Date: Sunday, October 24, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Jets at Patriots betting preview
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Jets: Tyler Kroft TE (Out), Mekhi Becton T (Out), C.J. Mosley LB (Out), Tevin Coleman RB (Out).
Patriots: Dont’a Hightower LB (Out), Chase Winovich DL (Out), Trent Brown OL (Out), Jonathan Jones CB (Out), Shaun Wade CB (Out), Rhamondre Stevenson RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in its past 14 meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Patriots.
Jets vs Patriots predictions
Patriots -7 (-110)
Week 7 sees a classic AFC East rivalry get renewed with the New York Jets heading to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots. It’s only been five weeks since these teams last met with the Patriots beating the Jets 25-6 in their own backyard in Week 2.
When both teams are being led by rookie quarterbacks it’s likely that the game could be very different from when they played in September. Extra time on the field has helped both Mac Jones and Zach Wilson grow more accustomed to the professional game.
Mac Jones has looked solid for the Patriots, even if he’s not looked spectacular. Zach Wilson on the other hand has shown glimpses of that big arm but has at times looked really out of his depth. Before the Jets bye week they played in London against the Falcons and Wilson played terribly. A 59.4% completion percentage and only one interception is probably flattering, which indicates just how badly he played. He’s struggling in a number of areas, such as knowing when to scramble, something which has cost the Jets yardage time and time again.
Wilson still has time to reach his potential but for the Jets and likely the Patriots, they will know that catching the Buffalo Bills in the division is all but impossible. A wildcard into playoffs could happen but in all likelihood this season is one about growth and regeneration.
In September the Patriots won by 19 points and we know about Bill Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks. You’d have to imagine that the Patriots win this one but it could be closer. The Jets defense is improving by the week but it won’t be good enough to swing the outcome of this match.
It was 2011 when the Jets last beat the Patriots in Foxborough and they’ll be waiting at least another year to change that, the question is whether they can cover the spread. The Patriots have been in close games all year, three of four defeats have been by a score and 50% of their wins have been by a single score too. That said, they did heavily beat the Jets last time out and so we’ll be taking the Patriots -7, which the Patriots should cover even if the score is a little closer than last time.
Under 42.5 (-110)
The Under is 7-0 in the Patriots last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in the previous game. It’s also 4-1 in the Patriots last five games as home favorites and 4-1 in its last five divisional games too.
31 was the total number of points when these two teams met in mid-September and although I’m expecting a closer game, I’m not sure we’ll see a swing of 11.5 points.
The Jets are bottom of the league in offensive DVOA and have only scored 67 points in five games. Given the struggles of the Jets offense and the Patriots habit of keeping within a score of their opponents, it makes sense for us to back the Under here.
Corey Davis Over 3.5 total receptions (-155)
Corey Davis has been one of the few highlights for the Jets this season. He managed to reinvigorate his career at Tennessee and the move to New York has given him a platform to showcase his ability.
His average yards per catch is now tied with his 2020 average at the Titans on 15.1 but it’s well ahead of his career average of 13.9 yards. He appears to be getting downfield more than he was previously. Not only that but he’s become an important red zone option. In only five games he’s scored three touchdowns for the Jets which is over half of his best ever season total of five for the Titans last year.
His line for receptions is set at 3.5, something he’s beaten in four of five games this season. The only one in which he didn’t was the last game against the Patriots. Despite only hauling in two of his five targets in that game I’m confident that we’ll see Davis hit the Over this week.
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