NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 7: Waller Shreds Philly D

Darren Waller will be hungry coming off a low-usage outing, and will get to impose his will on an Eagles defense that TEs feast on. Find out how to get max value from that matchup, along with the rest of Week 7's NFL prop picks.

Last Updated: Oct 23, 2021 2:26 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
Darren Waller Las Vegas Raiders NFL
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The NFL season is in full swing and so are all the glorious prop markets that come with it. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best team, player, and derivative prop bets — we do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!

Week 7 is here and we’re backing a pair of tight ends, hitting the Over on a receiver with a massive spread, and hitching our wagon behind an all-purpose back. 

We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Week 7 of the NFL season.

Latest NFL prop picks

  • Seals-Jones Over 36.5 receiving yards
  • Cooks Over 5.5 receptions
  • Patterson Over 81.5 rushing and receiving yards
  • Waller Over 5.5 receptions

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

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NFL prop picks for Saturday

Ricky Seals-Over

We owe Washington tight end Ricky Seals-Jones another kick at the can this week after he cashed our +333 TD prop in Week 6. He’s topped 40 yards receiving in back-to-back weeks through 15 total targets and has become an important piece of this Washington passing game in the absence of Logon Thomas. Green Bay comes into this game as eight-point favorites and the Football team should be in pass mode Sunday.

RSJ ran routes on 88 percent of Washington’s dropbacks in Week 6 and gets to face a Green Bay defense that is league-average when it comes to defending opposing TEs. The Packers give up over 50 yards per game to opposing TEs and have been beaten by George Kittle, and T.J. Hockenson this year already.

The Washington TE has seen his yardage total creep up week by week, but at 36.5 yards this week, that’s an Over we aren’t passing up. 

PICK: Ricky Seals-Jones Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Cooking as Big Underdogs

Since Davis Mills took over the starting job in Houston, all he has done is pepper wide receiver Brandin Cooks with passes. In Mills’ four starts, Cooks is averaging nine targets for 6.5 grabs and 68 yards.

Cooks has three nine-catch games this year along with three double-digit target performances through six games. He has a 34 percent target share and a whopping 54 percent air yard share. 

This is the only healthy playmaker the Texans have, and coming into Week 7 as 18-point underdogs, Cooks should get a healthy dose of looks versus the Cardinals, who allow nearly 13 catches to opposing WRs per game.

Cooks’ reception total is sitting at a tasty 5.5, and considering two of Houston’s other top WRs are questionable, this is a great number. Cooks has topped this total in each game he has seen more than seven targets in, and with this expected to be a very one-sided game, Houston should be passing plenty.

PICK: Brandin Cooks Over 5.5 receptions (-115 at BetMGM)

Cordarelle Universe

Not many players in the league are deployed like Cordarrelle Paterson is. He’s used all over the field and has been racking up rushing and receiving yards at a high rate. Over the last three weeks, the 30-year-old veteran is averaging 75 yards receiving plus another 36 yards per game on the ground. He's gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of those three games. So, when we see his total yards prop sitting at 81.5 yards, don’t mind us if we get excited.

Patterson is coming off his highest snap count in Week 5 (bye last week) and faces a Miami defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs, which includes a healthy six catches per game to RBs. 

This total seems to be six to 10 yards too short and we’re happy to throw down on the Over in a game that Patterson could see heavy work in both the running and passing game. 

PICK: Cordarrelle Patterson Over 81.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115 at bet365).

Wall til you Fall

Las Vegas tight end Darren Waller is coming off his lowest-volume game of the year where he saw only five targets in a game in which the Raiders jumped out to a big lead. Derek Carr also targeted 10 total players in the 34-24 win. Waller came into the game having received at least seven targets in each game.

Waller could be in for a bigger than usual role Sunday, as the Eagles struggle to contain opposing TEs and are allowing 6.7 receptions per game to them. O.J Howard hauled in a season-high six balls last week, Dallas’ Dalton Schultz had six grabs versus the Eagles while Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst combined for eight catches in Week 1. 

Linebacker Eric Wilson is the primary TE defender in their nickel package and is graded as the fifth-worst LB in football.

The Eagles give up a ton of receptions to opposing TEs, but they keep the yardage in check at 53.7 per game. This has us leaning on Waller’s reception total more than his yardage total of 57.5. Waller is averaging just 11.7 yards per catch this year and Henry Ruggs will be a go after a full practice on Thursday. 

His reception total has consistently closed at 5.5 over the last three weeks, so getting it at 5.5 at -105 isn’t much to worry about. 

PICK: Darren Waller Over 5.5 receptions (-105 at DraftKings)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Back to the well

Another week, another low Leonard Fournette rushing total. The Tampa Bay back has 240 yards on the ground over the last three weeks, hasn’t been held to under 65 yards in any of those games, and he is coming off a season-high 22 carries versus the Eagles last week, resulting in 81 yards. Plus Lenny has some extra rest after playing the TNF game in Week 6 and will look to continue his heavy workload against the Bears in Week 7 with Tampa as 12.5-point home favorites.

The backfield is all Fournette’s, with Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard fighting for Lenny’s scraps. Another 20 rushes is a big possibility against a Chicago defense that allowed 154 yards rushing to the Packers last week, with both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon running for over 58 yards. The Bears also have the second-worst DVOA pass defense, so if Tom Brady can keep the defense honest with a few shots downfield, it should make life easier for Tampa Bay’s No. 1 back.

Fournette’s rushing total opened at 64.5 but for some reason has dropped in price and can be found at 62.5. His rushing total closed last week at the same number — this is a steal and we’re looking to cash the Over for the second straight week.

PICK: Leonard Fournette Over 62.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

UZO trip

The Ravens have continued to be one of the best matchups for opposing tight ends this year. TEs are targeted 10.7 times per game against Baltimore, which is the highest number in the league, and the Ravens allow a generous 7.2 catches, 75.7 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns per game — good for the third-best fantasy matchup for opposing TEs.

The Ravens face the Bengals in Week 7, making TE C.J. Uzomah a sneaky-good bet. His receiving yard total sits at a modest 24.5 yards and the TE is just three weeks removed from a 5/95/2 game against the Jaguars.

His targets have dropped a bit over the last two weeks but Baltimore has been stingy to opposing wide receivers since Week 3, which could force quarterback Joe Burrow to look underneath and down the seam for Uzomah.

The Bengals went 0-2 SU last year versus the Ravens and were outscored 65-6. Cincinnati played with the lead all day last week but that should change in Week 7, meaning Burrow and the passing game could be busy.

PICK: C.J. Uzomah Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Trusting Matty Ice

Matt Ryan is coming off a bye and his passing weapons will be a lot healthier than they were in Week 5 in London: Wide receiver Calvin Ridley is back after missing Week 5 and Russell Gage also returned to practice. The re-addition of Ridley and the emergence and confidence of Kyle Pitts will give the Miami Dolphins a lot of trouble on Sunday.

Atlanta sits second in the league in passes attempted per game at 41.4 while the Dolphins have the No. 26-ranked DVOA pass defense and have allowed seven passing TDs over the last three games (averaging 319 passing yards against over that stretch). Miami starting corners Byron Jones and Xavien Howard missed Week 6 and likely aren’t 100 percent despite practicing this week.

Ryan’s passing yard total is sitting at 276.5 yards, which is a number he’s topped in three of his last four games. This receiving group will be close to full strength Sunday and Ryan could have a big day — his TD prop also is at 2.5, which shows us this is an optimal matchup for the veteran QB.

PICK: Matt Ryan Over 278.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Darrell and the Hendersons

Darrell Henderson is coming off his highest snap count last week, where he stole 82 percent of the backfield snaps and took 21 carries for 78 yards and a score. The 3.7 yards per carry was his lowest average from any game this year, as the Rams’ running back is averaging a healthy 4.6 ypc and 74.4 rushing yards per game on the season — Henderson is the Rams’ true feature back.

This week the Rams welcome the Lions to the fast track at SoFi Stadium, where Henderson has rushed for 159 yards on 30 carries (5.3 ypc). The Lions come into the game as 16-point underdogs, have the No. 26 DVOA rush defense, and allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Los Angeles will play a ton with the lead and Detroit will see a lot of Henderson.

Henderson's rushing total is a hefty 79.5 yards but that is only three yards more than last week’s matchup on the road against the Giants. He has a great shot at his first 100-yard game this week and this total has started to creep up with a few 81.5s on the board.

PICK: Darrell Henderson Over 79.5 rushing yards (-115 at PointsBet)

Season to date: 37-47 -9.05 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)

  • Seals-Jones Over 36.5 receiving yards
  • Cooks Over 5.5 receptions
  • Patterson Over 81.5 rushing and receiving yards
  • Waller Over 5.5 receptions

    - - 

  • Leonard Fournette Over 62.5 rushing yards
  • C.J. Uzomah Over 24.5 receiving yards
  • Matt Ryan Over 278.5 passing yards
  • Darrell Henderson Over 79.5 rushing yards

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