The Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions could be one of the season’s most electric games, with two of the NFL’s top offenses set to clash.
Detroit enters as a three-point favorite, but my Cowboys vs. Lions predictions anticipate a full-on shootout.
Here’s my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football on December 4.
Cowboys vs Lions prediction
Cowboys vs Lions Best bet: Over 53.5 (-110)
The Over in this matchup between high-scoring offenses and vulnerable defenses is one of my favorite plays of the week. These units rank second and third in scoring, and both defenses have major flaws in key areas.
The Detroit Lions should have little trouble sustaining drives against a Dallas Cowboys defense that sits last in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
With Amon-Ra St. Brown’s status uncertain, Detroit may lean more on the run. The duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is positioned for a big night against a Cowboys front that ranks 27th in yards allowed per rush and also gives up the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
Even if the Lions are undermanned at receiver, they face a Dallas defense that’s one of the worst in the league against the pass, so success through the air will be likely as well.
The fans won’t be on their side, but it’s hard not to like this Dallas offense in an indoor, controlled environment against a defense that has been lit up in consecutive games.
Dak Prescott and his receiving duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens should also thrive against a Detroit defense that's vulnerable through the air. The Lions rank 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt over their last three games, while Dallas ranks second offensively in that category.
Adding even more appeal to the Over, these defenses rank 27th and 30th in opponent red-zone touchdown rate, so we should see more touchdowns than field-goal attempts inside the 20s.
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Cowboys vs Lions TNF same-game parlay
In a game that should feature plenty of points, Gibbs is an easy TD pick with 13 scores in 12 games and a strong matchup against a Cowboys defense that struggles against running backs in the pass game. Pickens and Lamb also profile well to score against a Lions secondary that’s allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.
Cowboys vs Lions SGP
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
- George Pickens anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Goff goes long
I love Jared Goff to connect on a big pass vs. a Cowboys defense that’s tied for allowing the most pass plays of 40+ yards. Goff has gone Over this number in four of his last five games, and is tied for fourth in the NFL in pass attempts of 30 or more air yards.
Cowboys vs Lions SGP
- Jared Goff longest completion Over 35.5 yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
- George Pickens anytime touchdown
Cowboys vs Lions game predictions
Cowboys vs Lions moneyline prediction
This is as desperate a spot as Dan Campbell’s Lions have been in since becoming a legit contender, and I expect them to get back in the win column against an overachieving Cowboys team. Detroit’s best performances often come after a loss, and they haven’t lost consecutive regular-season games since the 2022 season.
Cowboys vs Lions spread prediction
Detroit has consistently responded well after losses, going 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an outright loss while showing major offensive spikes in those bounce-back spots.
Even though they’ve struggled against top-tier defenses, this matchup is far more favorable against a Cowboys' unit that ranks near the bottom in points allowed and other key defensive categories.
Cowboys vs Lions Over/Under prediction
These teams rank second and third in scoring, and both defenses have clear vulnerabilities that should lead to steady drives and plenty of explosive plays.
Detroit can take advantage of Dallas’ struggles against the run and on third downs, while the Cowboys’ passing game is well-positioned to attack a Lions defense that’s been picked apart through the air.
With these defenses sitting 27th and 30th in opponent red-zone touchdown percentage, all signs point to a shootout.
Cowboys vs Lions odds
- Spread: Dallas +3 (-110) | Detroit -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +145 | Detroit -170
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)
Cowboys vs Lions betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the first half of Cowboys' road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Lions.
How to watch Cowboys vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Thursday, December 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
Learn how to live stream Cowboys vs. Lions for free tonight.
Cowboys vs Lions latest injuries
Amon-Ra St. Brown is officially listed as questionable for tonight against the Cowboys with a low ankle sprain. He suffered the injury in the Thanksgiving loss to the Packers and did not return to that game. He did not practice at all this week, yet the Lions still kept him as “questionable” rather than ruling him out.
Coaches have described his status as genuinely up in the air, and multiple outlets note that Detroit will likely wait until pregame warmups to make a final call.
National reports say St. Brown is a “long shot” to go, and betting/fantasy analysis is generally leaning toward him not playing or being very limited if active, given the short week and lack of practice.
Cowboys vs Lions weather
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More Cowboys vs Lions predictions from Covers
- Cowboys vs. Lions prop picks
- Cowboys vs. Lions same game parlay
- Cowboys vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Cowboys vs. Lions computer picks
- Dak Prescott player prop picks
- Thursday Night Football odds
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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