Dak Prescott is a distant third in the NFL MVP, at least according to the odds.
The Dallas Cowboys quarterback has a great chance to boost his MVP stock in prime time this Thursday, coming to Motown for a matchup with the Detroit Lions.
After looking at Dak Prescott's odds, I found the best way to bet on the Cowboys' QB. Find out more in my NFL picks for this December 4 matchup.
Dak Prescott prop pick
Dak Prescott best bet: Dak Prescott Over 36.5 passing attempts (-115 at bet365)
Prescott polished off the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving by passing for 320 yards, completing 27 of his 39 attempts.
He takes on another top-tier team in a mid-week war with oddsmakers hiking this Over/Under number to 54.5 points — currently the second-highest total of the 2025 season.
All those points have to come from somewhere, and we’ve seen Dak’s passing props inching up all week.
The Cowboys throw the ball at the seventh-highest rate, and Prescott has attempted the third-most passes per game among qualified QBs (37 per game). This pairing with the Lions’ soft secondary will see those numbers rise.
Detroit has been snake bitten in the defensive backfield and enters the short week with multiple ailments in the secondary. Since Week 10, the Lions are 31st in EPA allowed per dropback and 26th in opponent success rate per pass.
Detroit runs man-to-man coverage at the second-highest rate, with two high safeties giving up the fifth-most completions of 20 yards or more. Prescott is exceptional regardless of scheme and has two of the best one-on-one options in the land, with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
With a total this high and two defenses known for allowing home run plays, Thursday Night Football could quickly turn into a shootout — prompting more passing plays from Prescott and the Cowboys.
His Week 14 projections bounce between 36 and 37 pass attempts, but with Dallas expected to play from behind (as road underdogs), I believe the ceiling is closer to 40 passes thrown from No. 4 on TNF.
Dak Prescott same-game parlay
Dak Prescott Over 36.5 pass attempts
CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
Cowboys +3
The tall total and underdog spread sets up a game script in which Prescott is forced to drop back a lot against a soft Lions secondary.
CeeDee Lamb is getting healthier and has scored two touchdowns in his last three games.
Dallas’ offense can trade shots with the Lions, but it’s the Cowboys defense — more specifically the pass rush — that will help them cover the +3 on TNF.
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