Thursday Night Football Computer Picks: Our Best Week 14 Player Prop Projections

Tonight's TNF matchup features the highest total of Week 14, and our NFL player prop projections have identified the best Over props to bet.

Jared Hochman - Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Jared Hochman • Content Manager
Dec 4, 2025 • 09:48 ET • 4 min read
Cowboys vs Lions computers picks George Pickens
Photo By - Imagn Images. Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens (3) hurdles over a defender.

Get ready for action on Thursday Night Football tonight as two of the league's most explosive offenses square off when the Dallas Cowboys visit the Detroit Lions.

This game has the highest total on the odds board this week, and our NFL player prop projections have identified the best TNF prop values for tonight.

Cowboys vs Lions computer picks for Thursday Night Football

Cowboys Cowboys Lions Lions
Prescott o269.5 pass
-110
Goff o252.5 pass
-110
Williams o8.5 rec
-110
Goff o0.5 rush
+115
Pickens TD
+125
Gibbs o34.5 rec
-100
Ferguson o36.5 rec
-110
Williams o83.5 rec
-110
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Cowboys TNF computer picks

Dak Prescott Over 269.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 279.95 yards

Prescott has gone for 320+ yards in consecutive games, and we're expecting another big night for the Cowboys QB in what should be a shootout.

Javonte Williams Over 8.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 11.8 yards

The veteran RB has also seen an uptick in targets recently, and our projections expect him to hit double-digit yards for the third straight game.

George Pickens to score a touchdown (+125)

Projection: 0.64 touchdowns

Our projections also like the Over on his receiving yards, but we're focusing on the plus-money price for him to find paydirt against a porous Lions defense.

Alternate-total bet
2+ touchdowns (+850) - I mean, why not get spicy with a total this high?

Jake Ferguson Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 37.32 yards

He's hit 36+ yards in three of his last four games, and we're expecting him to finish right around that number tonight.


More Thursday Night Football picks from Covers


Lions TNF computer picks

Jared Goff Over 252.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 288.28 yards

The Lions' QB has topped this number in five straight games, and we're forecasting him to make it six straight tonight to keep up with the Cowboys' explosive offense.

Alternate-total bet
275+ yards (+160) - This number shows incredible value.

Jared Goff Over 0.5 rushing yards (+115)

Projection: 3.3 yards

Yes... We need just one yard here, which is something Goff has done five times this season — and we think he'll scramble at least once tonight

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 41.81 yards

Our projections also like his rushing Over (slightly), but there's more value in his receiving total, where we project him to finish around 40 yards.

Alternate-total bet
40+ yards (+120) - This prop shows good value.

Jameson Williams Over 83.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 85.4 yards

We're projecting the explosive Lions receiver to sneak past his receiving prop tonight.

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Jared Hochman Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Content Manager

Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King's College in, Halifax, N.S., "Hoch" brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers' NHL Puck Props. 

Awarded Covers' company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop, which is something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.

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