The Washington Commanders won’t have to wait long to shake off the sting of their narrow Week 7 loss.
After falling 25-24 to Chicago on Monday, Washington heads to AT&T Stadium for a divisional showdown with the rival Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels, who threw three touchdowns in the loss, now gets a shot at exploiting a struggling Dallas pass defense.
Daniels’ TD connections are the focus of my Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 19.
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Commanders vs Cowboys prediction
Commanders vs Cowboys Best bet: Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-118)
Jayden Daniels kept the Washington Commanders competitive on Monday night, passing for three touchdowns despite a depleted receiving corps.
Washington will be without Noah Brown or Terry McLaurin on Sunday, but it won't matter against a rotten Dallas Cowboys secondary.
Dallas sits at the bottom of most pass defense metrics, including 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 31st in pass defense DVOA at FTN, and 29th in coverage rating at PFF.
The Cowboys just allowed three passing touchdowns to much-maligned Carolina QB Bryce Young in an upset loss last weekend and are averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns against on the season.
Daniels will see primarily zone coverage from the Dallas secondary, which runs the highest rate of zone in the NFL under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. In his short pro career, Daniels has thrived against zone schemes, with his 2025 completion percentage soaring to 72% against zone (vs. 52% against man).
Week 7’s trip to “Jerry’s World” is also a rare indoor outing for Daniels and his big arm. He’s only played four games in either a domed or retractable roof stadium, but his completion rate and yards per attempt see a bump on those fast indoor tracks.
This NFC East affair has the highest total on the Week 7 odds board at 54.5 points, which is also the tallest total for the 2025 season so far. That sets up a high-flying game script with both teams trading touchdowns.
Projections for Daniels sit between 1.7 and 2.1 touchdown passes versus Dallas, with the majority of those models sitting closer to two TDs.
Commanders vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Daniels can slice apart this Dallas secondary and hit the home run balls inside AT&T Stadium, with projections pointing to at least two touchdown passes.
Jake Ferguson is playing a bigger role in the passing game, and projections call for more than 57 yards from the Cowboys' tight end.
Zach Ertz was targeted six times last week, catching a touchdown in Washington’s home loss to Chicago. He should be Daniels’ primary option in the red zone, with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel both sidelined for this NFC East showdown.
Commanders vs Cowboys SGP
- Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Zach Ertz anytime touchdown
- Jake Ferguson Over 40.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Playmakers making plays
Daniels faces a Cowboys defense allowing 2.5 passing TDs a game. Ertz will be his first read inside the 20.
Ferguson takes on a Washington defense that gives up big yards to TEs.
With CeeDee back, Pickens draws softer coverage and gets back in the end zone.
Commanders vs Cowboys SGP
- Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Zach Ertz anytime touchdown
- Jake Ferguson Over 40.5 receiving yards
- George Pickens anytime touchdown
Commanders vs Cowboys game predictions
Commanders vs Cowboys moneyline prediction
Washington is a cheap road favorite, with a short turnaround after playing Monday, keeping this moneyline price from going higher. Not only do the Commanders have the firepower to exploit a soft Dallas defense, but D.C. should be motivated for D.Q. with head coach Dan Quinn facing his former employer.
Commanders vs Cowboys spread prediction
The Commanders are 1.5-point road chalk in Week 7. While the Cowboys are always live at home, trusting this sloppy stop unit is a big ask. Quinn knows this offense very well due to his time in Dallas, which helps the Commanders' defense get a leg up.
Commanders vs Cowboys Over/Under prediction
The Over/Under is the biggest number of the season, and it very well could turn into a track meet. I’ll steer into the move and take the Over.
Commanders vs Cowboys odds
- Spread: Commanders -2.5 | Cowboys +2.5
- Moneyline: Commanders -134 | Cowboys +119
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Commanders vs Cowboys trend to know
The Cowboys have played Over the total inside AT&T Stadium at a 66% clip since 2020, with a 29-15 O/U count. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Cowboys.
How to watch Commanders vs Cowboys
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Sunday, October 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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