I’m back with another edition of Gimme the Over! My Week 8 NFL Over/Under picks feature a heavyweight shootout in Buffalo, a Raiders defense generous enough to get the Jets involved, and an Under in Denver too good to ignore.
Let’s get into this week’s NFL picks.
NFL Week 8 Over/Under picks
BAL vs. 
BUF
LV vs. 
NYJ
KC vs. 
DENPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Expert Week 8 NFL Over/Under picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
Ravens vs. Bills: Over 54.5
High total, but not high enough!
Bills games average a league-high 61.33 combined points, and this isn’t the matchup where that suddenly cools off.
Buffalo comes off a bye for its first home game since October 4, leading the NFL in points per game, yards per play, and explosive play rate. In its last two games off a bye, the offense produced 40 and 35 points. Now comes a Ravens defense that’s allowed 30-plus in three of its last five.
Speaking of well-rested, Lamar Jackson is set to return and should have the Ravens offense ready to punch back against a Bills defense ranked 30th in points allowed at 28.5 per game. These teams combined for 81 points in a matchup last season. Let's just give the punters the afternoon off.
Notable trends include Baltimore being 15-6 to the Over on the road since the start of 2024, while Buffalo is 10-2-1 to the Over in its last 13.
Raiders vs. Jets: Over 45.5
A sneaky one here, because Jets games don’t exactly scream FUN! But they just allowed 28 points to a Dolphins team that's been held to 13 or fewer in four other games this season.
High-scoring games are the norm for the Raiders, whose games average 54.29 combined points, third-highest in the NFL.
Yes, Vegas can score at 26.1 PPG, but their Over avalanche is mostly courtesy of a defense making a strong case for the league’s worst. Nothing encourages aggressive play-calling like constantly cleaning up the defense’s mess.
The Raiders have allowed an average of 35.75 points over their last four games. We shouldn’t expect the Jets to reach those heights, but their offense is probably better than its 19.6 PPG suggests, as they rank near the league average in yards per play.
Even the Jets should be able to get in on the Raiders’ weekly scoring party.
Chiefs vs. Broncos: Under 40.5
DON’T Gimme the Over in Denver!
We’ve got A LOT of ammo for a low-scoring game, starting with two defenses ranked inside the Top 10 in points allowed, yards per play allowed, and opponent red-zone touchdown rate.
The Broncos offense has some serious holes. It can’t move the ball consistently, ranking 27th in yards per play. It can’t extend drives, sitting 31st on third down. It also lacks big-play ability, ranking 28th in explosive play rate. Other than that, everything’s going great.
This rivalry has produced seven straight Unders, while Kansas City has been an Under machine, cashing in 15 of its last 18 games.
Chiefs divisional games tell the same story: 17 of the last 21 have gone Under, with an average combined score of just 36.3.
This total is low for a reason. I’m banking on it not being low enough.
Week 8 Over/Under combo
Ravens vs. Bills Over 54.5
Raiders vs. Jets Over 45.5
Chiefs vs. Broncos Under 40.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
