The Indianapolis Colts square off with the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon in a Week 12 matchup.
Indy is 8-2 thanks to a highly efficient attack, and my Colts vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks are betting on that offense to hang points on the board at Arrowhead Stadium.
Colts vs Chiefs prediction
Colts vs Chiefs Best bet: Colts team total Over 23.5 (-114)
The Indianapolis Colts have the highest-rated offense in the league in both EPA/play and DVOA. The Colts lead the league in points per game (32.1) and yards per play (6.4), while ranking third in red-zone touchdown percentage (68.2%).
While the Kansas City Chiefs have a strong stop unit, they have a couple of weaknesses that Indy can exploit. They are 24th in the league in defensive rush EPA, which is bad news against Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL with 1139 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry.
The Chiefs also have a tough time getting stops on third down, ranking 23rd in opponent third-down conversion rate (41.6%).
The Colts have scored fewer than 29 points just twice in 10 games this season. In those contests, they still finished with 20 points despite having six turnovers against Pittsburgh and three turnovers versus the Rams.
The Chiefs are tied for 24th in the league in takeaways, and I don't see them forcing the turnovers needed to contain this Colts attack.
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Colts vs Chiefs same-game parlay
The O/U rushing yards for Taylor is sitting at a lofty 90.5, but he has surpassed that number in six of his last nine games. He's also scored a whopping 17 touchdowns over that nine-game stretch.
Taylor is the straw that stirs the drink for this Colts offense, and since we're backing them to put up points, it makes sense to parlay that with a productive game for the superstar RB.
Indy has an explosive offense, but the defense has struggled to contain tight ends, allowing the second-most yards per game (72.6) to the position. Travis Kelce has logged 54+ receiving yards in six-straight games, and last week he reeled in nine receptions for 91 yards against Denver's elite defense.
Colts vs Chiefs SGP
- Colts team total Over 23.5
- Jonathan Taylor Over 90.5 receiving yards
- Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown
- Travis Kelce Over 51.5 receiving yards
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Our big-ticket SGP: Chiefs!
Even if the Colts put up points, that's no guarantee they'll beat the Chiefs in their own backyard.
Kansas City's offense has picked up steam since Rashee Rice returned from suspension, and Patrick Mahomes could easily lead his team to a high-scoring win.
Colts vs Chiefs SGP
- Colts team total Over 23.5
- Jonathan Taylor Over 90.5 receiving yards
- Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown
- Travis Kelce Over 51.5 receiving yards
- Chiefs moneyline
Colts vs Chiefs game predictions
Colts vs Chiefs moneyline prediction
While I like the Colts on the spread at +3.5, I expect the Chiefs to win a close game. This is a Chiefs squad that has played an extremely tough schedule, and their 5-5 record doesn't reflect how good they are.
They are still Super Bowl contenders and, with Mahomes at the helm, I'm reluctant to fade them on the ML at home against anybody.
Colts vs Chiefs spread prediction
The Colts are 8-2 and lead the league in scoring margin (+11.5 ppg) while ranking third in DVOA. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 5-5 and rank fifth in DVOA. The Colts are also rated slightly higher than the Chiefs in EPA/play on both sides of the ball.
Given how these teams have performed this season, it's hard to justify the Chiefs being favored by more than a field goal. Take the points with Indy.
Colts vs Chiefs Over/Under prediction
The Colts have the highest-scoring team in the NFL, and I'm expecting plenty of points from them.
The Chiefs had scored 28+ points in five straight games before losing on the road in the last two weeks. They'll have a much easier time scoring at home against Indy than they did against Denver's defense last week. I'm leaning towards the Over.
Colts vs Chiefs odds
- Spread: Colts +3.5 (-118) | Chiefs -3.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Colts +156 | Chiefs -186
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-115) | Under 49.5 (-105)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Colts vs Chiefs trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have gone Over their team total in 11 of their last 13 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Colts vs Chiefs
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Sunday, November 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Colts vs Chiefs latest injuries
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