Indianapolis @ Kansas City Picks & Props

The Colts have the highest-rated offense in the league in both EPA/play and DVOA. They lead the league in scoring (32.1 ppg) and yards per play (6.4), while ranking third in red-zone TD percentage (68.2%). While the Chiefs have a strong stop unit, they have a couple of weaknesses that Indy can exploit. They are 24th in the league in defensive rush EPA which is bad news against Jonathan Taylor who leads the NFL with 1139 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry. The Chiefs also rank 23rd in opponent third-down conversion rate (41.6%). The Colts have scored more than 28 points in eight of 10 games this season and as long as they can take care of the ball, they will eclipse their team total on Sunday. 

Alec Pierce has hit the Over on his receiving yards in every game this season, and the last time bettors saw him, he led the Colts’ receivers in Berlin with 84 yards and a touchdown. Since returning to the lineup, Pierce has racked up 414 yards in five games. He’s not the same red-zone threat as Josh Downs (+320), but Daniel Jones trusts him on deep, contested targets. The Chiefs are overvalued, and Pierce has taken over as the Colts’ WR1 and the No. 2 option behind Ty Warren. A yardage prop of 60.5 is too cheap for his current role. I’m playing this to +240.

Indianapolis comes into this matchup fresh and focused off the bye week. The Colts’ ground game is the key to putting a nail in KC’s coffin. Running back Jonathan Taylor is on an MVP track, powering the NFL’s top rushing attack in all the sexy analytics. Buffalo was able to grind out gains on the ground against Kansas City and dominate the football for more than 34 minutes in Week 9, setting the blueprint for Indy. The Colts can play “keep-away” in an effort to help their defense limit Mahomes’ time on the field. And speaking of the defense, coordinator Lou Anarumo has plenty of experience planning for Andy Reid’s attack. He faced the Chiefs six times as the DC in Cincinnati (with far less talent), including a playoff win at Arrowhead in 2022.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.4 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.3 per game) this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.4 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.3 per game) this year.. Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 8th-fewest yards in the league (just 206.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.. The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the best group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.4 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.3 per game) this year.. The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the best group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.4 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.3 per game) this year.. When talking about air yards, Jonathan Taylor ranks in just the 12th percentile among RBs this year, with just -4.0 per game.. Jonathan Taylor's ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this season, notching a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.33 rate last season.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.. In this week's game, Rashee Rice is forecasted by the model to land in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.3 targets.. With a top-tier 25.7% Target Rate (91st percentile) this year, Rashee Rice stands as one of the WRs with the most usage in the NFL.

A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.. Travis Kelce has been a less important option in his team's air attack this season (19.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (24.6%).. After totaling 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has fallen off this season, currently averaging 39.0 per game.. Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 mark last season.

The model projects Daniel Jones to earn 4.9 carries this week, on average: the 6th-most out of all QBs.

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.. With a 36.6% rate of rushing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-least run-oriented team in football has been the Colts.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.4 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.. The opposing side have run for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 98.0 per game) vs. the Chiefs defense this year.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Kansas City's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the best in the league.

A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.. After comprising 9.3% of his offense's run game usage last year, Patrick Mahomes has had a larger role in the running game this year, currently comprising 18.7%.. Patrick Mahomes has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (20.0).