Jones has five rushing TDs in 10 games, while the Chiefs have allowed five rushing TDs to oppossing QBs in 10 games, the most of any team in the league.
Kelce isn't the player he was in his prime, but he's still one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL and Patrick Mahomes' security blanket. Last week, he reeled in nine of 13 targets for 91 yards against Denver's elite defense. That was his sixth-straight game with 54+ receiving yards and he's averaging 74.8 yards per game during that span. The Chiefs have struggled to establish the run which has led to them passing at the fourth-highest rate in the league (65.6%) over their last three games. Facing the 8-2 Colts should lead to another high-volume passing game and plenty of targets for Kelce. Indy struggles to defend TEs, allowing the second-most yards per game (72.6) to the position.
The Colts have the highest-rated offense in the league in both EPA/play and DVOA. They lead the league in scoring (32.1 ppg) and yards per play (6.4), while ranking third in red-zone TD percentage (68.2%). While the Chiefs have a strong stop unit, they have a couple of weaknesses that Indy can exploit. They are 24th in the league in defensive rush EPA which is bad news against Jonathan Taylor who leads the NFL with 1139 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry. The Chiefs also rank 23rd in opponent third-down conversion rate (41.6%). The Colts have scored more than 28 points in eight of 10 games this season and as long as they can take care of the ball, they will eclipse their team total on Sunday.
Alec Pierce has hit the Over on his receiving yards in every game this season, and the last time bettors saw him, he led the Colts’ receivers in Berlin with 84 yards and a touchdown. Since returning to the lineup, Pierce has racked up 414 yards in five games. He’s not the same red-zone threat as Josh Downs (+320), but Daniel Jones trusts him on deep, contested targets. The Chiefs are overvalued, and Pierce has taken over as the Colts’ WR1 and the No. 2 option behind Ty Warren. A yardage prop of 60.5 is too cheap for his current role. I’m playing this to +240.
Indianapolis comes into this matchup fresh and focused off the bye week. The Colts’ ground game is the key to putting a nail in KC’s coffin. Running back Jonathan Taylor is on an MVP track, powering the NFL’s top rushing attack in all the sexy analytics. Buffalo was able to grind out gains on the ground against Kansas City and dominate the football for more than 34 minutes in Week 9, setting the blueprint for Indy. The Colts can play “keep-away” in an effort to help their defense limit Mahomes’ time on the field. And speaking of the defense, coordinator Lou Anarumo has plenty of experience planning for Andy Reid’s attack. He faced the Chiefs six times as the DC in Cincinnati (with far less talent), including a playoff win at Arrowhead in 2022.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.
The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (77.4% Adjusted Completion%).. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Kansas City's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the best in the league.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.4 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.3 per game) this year.
A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.. Rashee Rice's 74.7% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant regression in his receiving ability over last year's 81.1% figure.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.6 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.3 per game) this year.. Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 8th-fewest yards in the league (just 206.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.. The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the best group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 64.2 total plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 64.2 total plays in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.. Travis Kelce has been a less important option in his team's air attack this season (19.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (24.6%).. After totaling 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has fallen off this season, currently averaging 39.0 per game.. Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 mark last season.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.6 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.3 per game) this year.. When talking about air yards, Jonathan Taylor ranks in just the 12th percentile among RBs this year, with just -4.0 per game.. Jonathan Taylor's ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this season, notching a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.33 rate last season.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Indianapolis's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.
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