A couple of 6-7 teams square off at Lambeau Field in Week 15 odds when the Green Bay Packers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are coming off back-to-back wins while the Packers will try to bounce back from an upset loss to the Giants on Monday Night Football.
NFL odds have the Packers installed as 3.5-point home favorites for this matchup, with the Over/Under listed at 42.5. Here are my best free NFL picks for Buccaneers vs. Packers on December 17.
Buccaneers vs Packers odds
Buccaneers vs Packers predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales received plenty of criticism early in the season for running the ball in questionable situations with disastrous results. Recently, however, the Bucs ground game has taken off with Rachaad White consistently churning out yards on the ground.
While White struggled at the start of the year by ranking near the bottom of the league in rushing yards over expected, he has turned things around over the last three weeks. White rushed for 100 yards on just 15 carries against the Colts in Week 12 before picking up 84 yards on 20 carries versus Carolina. Just last week, the Bucs running back had a season-high 25 carries for 102 yards against the Falcons.
White has clearly become the workhorse for the Bucs, logging about 86% of their RB snaps over the last three games. The 24-year-old should continue to pile up yards against a Green Packers defense that ranks 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (141.8) and 28th in yards allowed per carry (4.6).
Take the Over 75.5 rushing yards for White against a banged-up Green Bay squad on Sunday.
My best bet: Rachaad White Over 76.5 rushing yards (-110)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Buccaneers vs Packers same-game parlay
Rachaad White Over 76.5 rushing yards
Buccaneers +3.5
Baker Mayfield Under 31.5 pass attempts
It's tough to handicap a side for this game since both teams are dealing with major injuries on offense and defense. That said, I think the Bucs will have success running the ball, and wideout Mike Evans should be able to exploit a weak crop of Packers corners.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Jordan Love has been playing much better lately, but he'll struggle to find his rhythm with so many injuries to his top receivers. In what should be a close contest, I'll lean towards the Bucs and the points.
Since I'm expecting a close contest and Tampa Bay to lean on its ground game, it also makes sense to take the Under on Baker Mayfield's pass attempts. Mayfield has thrown for 32+ pass attempts just once in his last six games, and that was a blowout loss to the 49ers where he played with a negative game script.
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Buccaneers vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with the Packers at -3.5 and the line remains the same at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the total opened at 42.5 and also hasn't seen much movement.
Given that we're expecting fairly mild weather for a mid-December game in Green Bay, we could see this O/U tick up before kickoff — especially if many of the banged-up defenders on either side get ruled out.
The Bucs might be without three starters in their secondary, along with a pair of starters on their defensive line. The Packers could also be without a plethora of defensive backs, in addition to key absences up front in leading tackle Quay Walker and nose tackle T.J. Slaton.
The Packers have been dealing with injuries for weeks, but there was also a turning point on offense with Love showing promise under center. Despite a last-second loss to the Giants in Week 14, they had previously recorded a 3-0 straight up and against the spread streak, securing consecutive victories against the Chiefs, Lions, and Chargers.
Buccaneers vs Packers betting trend to know
The Bucs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Packers.
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Buccaneers vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, December 17, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Packers -3.5, O/U 42.5 |
Buccaneers vs Packers latest injuries
Buccaneers vs Packers weather
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