Fresh off a 44-point performance, the Buffalo Bills are favored by six points against the Houston Texans on TNF, while tonight's game has a total of 43.5.
While a good case can be made for either side covering the spread, my Bills vs Texans predictions envision a lower-scoring game.
Here’s my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football on November 20.
Kickoff is set for 8:25 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, with the game airing on Prime Video.
Bills vs Texans prediction
Bills vs Texans Best bet: Under 43.5 (-110)
We’ve got a great case for an Under bet on Thursday Night with the Houston Texans' defense and offense showing quite a bit of contrast from each other.
It’s undeniable that Houston has one of the league’s top defenses. It's allowing a league-low 16.3 points per game, while ranking second in yards allowed per play, and third in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
But the Texans take a serious nose-dive offensively, which has resulted in their games having an average combined score of just 38.3, and five of their 10 games have stayed below 34 combined points.
While the Buffalo Bills' defense could scare some off from an Under bet after allowing 62 points in their last two games, this is a solid get-right spot against one of the league’s worst offenses, which will be led by Davis Mills with CJ Stroud still recovering from a concussion.
Houston’s offensive ineptitude was on full display against the Titans last week, where it scored just 16 total points off 4.6 yards per play.
That’s problematic considering the Titans have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
The Texans' offensive line was an issue, allowing Mills to get sacked four times. The Bills' defense can exploit this weakness, as they’ve done a good job of getting after opposing QBs, ranking fourth in QB pressure percentage.
For what it’s worth, Houston held the Bills to 20 points off 276 total yards in a game last season. Josh Allen was straight-up awful in the game, completing just 9 of 30 passes, leading to a QB rating of 56.4, which was his worst mark of the season.
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Bills vs Texans TNF same-game parlay
Thursday night sets up to be a breakout game for Texans running back Woody Marks. The rookie out of USC is coming off a game where he had a season-high 18 carries.
A similar workload could lead to a massive day as the Bills rank 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt and have allowed 15 touchdowns to the running back position, which ties them with the Bengals for the most allowed.
Bills vs Texans SGP (+305)
- Woody Marks anytime touchdown
- Woody Marks Over 62.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Woody Marks the Spot
While defending the run is the weakness of the Bills' defense, they’ve been elite at limiting opposing tight ends, as they’ve allowed the fewest yards to the position this season – an average of just 27 yards per game.
Dalton Schultz has put together a string of decent weeks, but he has gone Under this mark of 38.5 in half of his games this season.
Bills vs Texans SGP (+663)
- Woody Marks anytime touchdown
- Woody Marks Over 62.5 rushing yards
- Dalton Schultz Under 38.5 receiving yards
Bills vs Texans game predictions
Bills vs Texans moneyline prediction
I don't expect an outright upset on Thursday.
While the Bills have been a little sporadic, they’ll pull out the win in what could be a tight game. Allen looks like the best player in the world right now, and I can’t trust this Texans offense after they barely outscored the Titans last week.
Score prediction: Bills 20, Texans 16
Bills vs Texans spread prediction
This is too many points to give a home team with a great defense. The Bills have been shaky on the road with outright losses in Miami and Atlanta, and now they’re on a short-week trip against a team that’s quietly won three of its last four.
While those road losses were likely wake-up calls for Buffalo, they have their hands full vs. an elite defense that should keep Allen from going off and keep the game within six points.
Bills vs Texans Over/Under prediction
I love the Under in this game. Thanks to an elite defense and poor play on the offensive side of the ball, Houston’s games are averaging just 38.3 combined points.
Offensively, the Texans are a mess, ranking bottom-third in many key categories, including 26th on third down and 31st in the red zone, which sets up a chance for Sean McDermott’s defense to steady itself after giving up 62 points in two games.
Bills vs Texans odds
- Spread: Buffalo -6 (-110) | Houston +6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buffalo -280 | Houston +230
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)
Bills vs Texans betting trend to know
Houston has covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of its last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Texans.
How to watch Bills vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, November 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
Learn how to live stream Bills vs. Texans for free tonight.
Bills vs Texans latest injuries
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is expected to play tonight against the Bills. After being listed with an ankle injury, he logged full practices on Tuesday and Wednesday and carries no game-status designation on the Texans’ final injury report, a strong sign he’ll be active barring a late setback.
Collins recently returned from a concussion and has quickly re-established himself as Houston’s top receiving option, drawing heavy targets in back-to-back wins.
The team expects him to play a role tonight, especially with quarterback C.J. Stroud out and Davis Mills starting under center for Houston.
Bills vs Texans weather
The outdoor weather looks warm, humid, and unsettled. Evening temps are expected to be in the low– to mid-70s°F with lots of clouds and a chance of thunderstorms in the broader area, especially late afternoon into the night. Winds shouldn’t be extreme, but passing storms could bring brief gusts and rain bands around kickoff time or afterward.
Because NRG has a retractable roof, the biggest football impact is whether it’s open or closed. With storms in the forecast, there’s a good chance the Texans opt to close the roof, creating a controlled, wind-free environment that favors the passing game and clean kicking conditions.
If, for any reason, the roof is open and showers move through, wet balls and a slick surface would slightly favor the better run game and ball-security team while increasing the risk of special-teams miscues and turnovers.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
More Bills vs Texans predictions and odds from Covers
- Bills vs. Texans prop picks
- Bills vs. Texans same game parlay
- Bills vs. Texans anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Bills vs. Texans computer picks
- Josh Allen player prop picks
- Thursday Night Football odds
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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