The New York Jets head into Week 7 as a 4.5-point favorite against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on CBS at MetLife Stadium.
My Dolphins vs Jets prediction is that New York will take care of business against a winless Miami squad.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 25.
TOP Pick
Dolphins vs Jets prediction: Jets -4.5
Play up to 55%.
This is a favorable spot for Geno Smith to get the New York Jets back on track. The Miami Dolphins have surrendered points on 50% of opposing possessions, the highest rate in the NFL, while allowing 2.75 points per drive (31st).
With just four sacks in five games, the Dolphins could struggle to disrupt Smith, who's thrown seven TDs against just one interception. Omar Cooper Jr.'s return adds another dimension after his 103-yard outing against New England.
The other side of this matchup is just as concerning for Miami. The winless Dolphins average only 14.0 points per game, and Malik Willis has twice as many interceptions (four) as touchdowns (two).
Against a Jets defense giving up 20.3 ppg, I expect New York to create separation at home.
COVERS INTEL: New York blitzes on 37.4% of opposing dropbacks, sixth-most in the NFL, while Miami ranks 31st against the blitz. That mismatch supports Jets -4.5.
Dolphins vs Jets combo
I expect a Jets victory, but it won't be high-scoring. After all, New York is averaging just 18.7 ppg (27th in the NFL), and the Dolphins have scored 13 points or fewer in four of five contests.
The Jets were also 0-for-3 in the red zone in Week 6, and Miami is just 28th in red-zone conversion rate. With two inconsistent offenses, this will stay below 40.
I'll round out my combo with Smith, who I expect to thrive against a mediocre Dolphins pass defense. Miami allows a 76.6% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks and has surrendered an average of 226 passing yards per game.
Three of the five QBs they've faced have thrown for at least 225 yards, and Smith just threw for 252 yards against New England.
Dolphins vs Jets combo
- Jets moneyline
- Under 39.5
- Geno Smith Over 224.5 passing yards
Dolphins vs Jets touchdown scorer: Garrett Wilson
Play up to 45%.
Even though Cooper Jr. exploded for 103 yards last weekend, Garrett Wilson remains Smith's primary target. He's already registered three receiving touchdowns this season and has reeled in 35 catches on 48 targets.
Miami ranks 20th in the NFL in red-zone TD rate, allowing scores 63.64% of the time. While Wilson has only one red-zone touchdown, he has commanded 23.1% of New York's red-zone targets and converted his lone target inside the 10 into a touchdown.
Two of Wilson's TDs have been at MetLife, and the Dolphins have allowed an alarming 11 passing touchdowns in five games.
He's a serious candidate to find paydirt.
- Top picks: 2-6, -3.08 units
- Combos: 0-6, -6.00
Dolphins vs Jets odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Dolphins +4.5 | Jets -4.5
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (49%) | Under 39.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Dolphins 34% | Jets 67%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Dolphins vs Jets weather
The Dolphins and Jets should enjoy ideal football conditions at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to hover around 63°F at the 1 p.m. ET kickoff before climbing into the mid-60s. Sunshine is forecast throughout the game, with just a 2% chance of precipitation.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Dolphins vs Jets trend to know
The Miami Dolphins have hit the team total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Jets.
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How to watch Dolphins vs Jets
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Dolphins vs Jets latest injuries
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