Week 12 in the NFL kicks off on Thursday night with a clash between the 7-3 Buffalo Bills and the 5-5 Houston Texans.
The Bills are led by reigning MVP Josh Allen, and my NFL picks are backing him to make plays with his legs against an elite Houston defense.
Here are my best free Bills vs. Texans props for Thursday Night Football action on November 20.
Bills vs Texans TNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen |
Over 33.5 rushing yards | -110 |
 Nick Chubb |
Over 20.5 rushing yards | -110 |
| Jayden Higgins |
Over 27.5 receiving yards | -115 |
Josh Allen Over 33.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Houston Texans are near the top of the NFL in most defensive metrics, but have been vulnerable on the ground against running quarterbacks. Houston is 18th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing QBs while ranking dead-last in yards allowed per scramble (10.7).
That's bad news against Buffalo Bills pivot Josh Allen, who is big, fast, and more than willing to pick up tough yards on the ground. The reigning NFL MVP is second among all QBs with 351 rushing yards this season.
The Texans lead the league in defensive dropback EPA and have the second-highest pass rush grade per PFF. If Allen is unable to find open receivers or feels pressure in the pocket, he'll take off and try to make plays with his feet.
Nick Chubb Over 20.5 rushing yards
Nick Chubb has rushed for more than 30 yards in eight of 10 games this year. While he had just three carries for 17 yards last week, expect a bigger workload on Thursday night.
While Chubb has been ceding snaps to Woody Marks in recent weeks, the rookie hasn't been doing much with the extra carries. Marks had just 44 yards on 18 carries against Tennessee's piss-poor run defense in Week 11, and he's averaging 3.3 yards per rush over his last five games.
That inefficiency from Marks could result in closer to a 50/50 split for the Texans running back duo this week. That should give Chubb more than enough carries to eclipse 20.5 yards against a Bills defense that struggles against the run.
Jayden Higgins Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Texans selected Jayden Higgins with the 34th pick in the draft after a productive career at Iowa State, where he was a third-team All-American in 2024. The rookie wideout didn't see many targets earlier in the season but has grown into a reliable cog in Houston's passing attack.
Davis Mills will make his third-straight start on TNF, and Higgins has built a rapport with the backup QB. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound receiver had five receptions for 42 yards in Week 10 before hauling in four of seven targets for 55 yards last week.
The Bills lock up tight ends and also do a good job of defending No. 1 wide receivers, but they rank 22nd in DVOA against No. 2 WRs. That puts Higgins in a good spot to get open looks opposite Nico Collins on Thursday.
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Bills vs Texans TNF prop betting card
- Allen Over 33.5 rush yards (-110)
- Chubb Over 20.5 rush yards (-110)
- Higgins Over 27.5 receiving yards (-120)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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