The Covers Anytime TD Value Index No. 1 player did it yet again last week: we have now predicted a touchdown scorer with our top Anytime TD market pick in five of six weeks in 2026.
That's an 83.3% hit rate. That's value you can count on.
Let's get after it! Here's the best Anytime TD Scorer predictions for NFL Week 7.
Best anytime TD scorer predictions this week
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd (  vs. ) |
RB | 20% | 90 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs ( vs.) |
RB | 72% | 90 |
| George Kittle (  vs. ) |
TE | 42% | 88 |
| Javonte Williams (  vs. ) |
RB | 52% | 87 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown ( vs.) |
WR | 56% | 86 |
| Kyren Williams (  vs. ) |
RB | 58% | 83 |
| Kenneth Walker III (  vs. ) |
RB | 57% | 80 |
| Ollie Gordon II (  vs. ) |
RB | 33% | 79 |
| Sam LaPorta ( vs.) |
TE | 34% | 79 |
| Christian McCaffrey ( vs.) |
RB | 68% | 79 |
| Derrick Henry (  vs. ) |
RB | 64% | 77 |
| D'Andre Swift (  vs. ) |
RB | 57% | 76 |
| Colby Parkinson ( vs.) |
TE | 19% | 75 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. ( vs.) |
TE | 24% | 74 |
| Kendre Miller (  vs. ) |
RB | 35% | 74 |
| Matthew Golden ( vs.) |
WR | 38% | 74 |
| Elic Ayomanor (  vs. ) |
WR | 9% | 73 |
| Cody White ( vs.) |
WR | 9% | 73 |
| Trey McBride (  vs. ) |
TE | 39% | 73 |
| Ashton Jeanty ( vs.) |
RB | 51% | 73 |
| J.K. Dobbins ( vs.) |
RB | 47% | 73 |
| Jonathan Taylor (  vs. ) |
RB | 51% | 72 |
| Chuba Hubbard (  vs. ) |
RB | 55% | 72 |
| Cam Skattebo (  vs. ) |
RB | 22% | 71 |
| Darren Waller ( vs.) |
TE | 20% | 71 |
Accurate as of Oct. 22. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps
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Best Week 7 anytime TD predictions
MarShawn Lloyd | RB 20%
- The Market Illusion: “A committee back averaging limited yardage cannot offer dependable touchdown equity.”
-
The Structural Reality: Lloyd leads Green Bay with 15 red-zone opportunities, including seven carries inside the 10. He has also recorded 11 red-zone carries and three touchdowns. Detroit has allowed touchdowns on 81% of opponent red-zone trips, while Green Bay carries a 25.25-point implied total.
The concern is workload stability. Lloyd played 39% of snaps in Week 6, producing 10 yards on eight carries, while Pierre Strong led the backfield in snaps and touches. At 20%, the price only requires a touchdown once every five games. That compensates for the committee risk, but this should be treated as a role-sensitive value play rather than a foundational selection.
Jahmyr Gibbs | RB 72%
- The Market Illusion: “No running back should command a probability above 70%.”
-
The Structural Reality: Gibbs has accumulated a league-leading 36 red-zone opportunities: 30 carries and six targets. He has converted those chances into nine touchdowns across five games and controls nearly all Detroit backfield red-zone usage. Detroit owns the week’s highest implied total at 28.25 points.
At 72%, the market requires a score once every 1.39 games. That is expensive, but Green Bay has surrendered touchdowns on 75% of opponent red-zone possessions. The opportunity profile supports the price; the actionable concern is payout compression, not workload. Avoid paying materially above 72%.
George Kittle | TE 42%
- The Market Illusion: “Tight-end touchdowns are too volatile to justify a 42% price.”
-
The Structural Reality: Kittle has drawn 10 red-zone targets, catching eight for four touchdowns while commanding 30% of San Francisco’s red-zone targets. The 49ers lead the league in red-zone touchdown efficiency and carry a 26.5-point implied total against Atlanta.
Atlanta has allowed touchdowns on 64% of opponent red-zone trips. At 42%, Kittle needs to score once every 2.38 games, a modest threshold for a concentrated end-zone role inside an elite offense. The price remains actionable below approximately 50%; reduced route participation would be the primary reason to reassess.
Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR 56%
- The Market Illusion: “A receiver priced above 50% is inherently overpriced.”
-
The Structural Reality: St. Brown leads the NFL with 16 red-zone targets and owns 41% of Detroit’s targets inside the 20. He has converted 11 catches into four red-zone touchdowns, while Detroit averages 4.4 red-zone trips per game and carries a slate-leading 28.25-point implied total.
A 56% price requires a score every 1.79 games. Green Bay’s 75% red-zone touchdown rate allowed strengthens the case, but Gibbs remains formidable competition near the goal line. The play is supported by target concentration and environment; avoid chasing it much beyond 60%.
Derrick Henry | RB 64%
- The Market Illusion: “Age and a short price eliminate any remaining value.”
-
The Structural Reality: Henry leads the NFL with 32 red-zone carries and has 33 total red-zone opportunities, producing seven touchdowns. Baltimore is projected for 26.75 points, and his role remains one of the league’s most concentrated touchdown profiles.
The complication is Cincinnati’s red-zone defense, which has allowed touchdowns on only 41% of opponent trips. At 64%, Henry must score every 1.56 games, leaving less margin than his workload initially suggests. The role supports exposure, but the matchup makes this a fair-to-modestly-positive price rather than an exceptional bargain.
Elic Ayomanor | WR 9%
- The Market Illusion: “Tennessee’s weak passing offense makes every secondary receiver unplayable.”
-
The Structural Reality: Ayomanor has drawn seven red-zone targets, representing 37% of Tennessee’s red-zone receiver opportunities. That concentration is significant despite modest overall production: seven receptions for 133 yards and one touchdown on 14 targets through six games. He continues to run routes regularly, but his weekly target volume and catch rate remain fragile.
At 9%, the market requires a touchdown only once every 11.11 games. Tennessee’s 17.5-point implied total and 47% red-zone touchdown rate are major negatives, while Cleveland has allowed touchdowns on just 44% of opponent red-zone trips. The matchup therefore offers little assistance.
The value comes almost entirely from price and concentrated red-zone targeting. At 9%, he is an attractive small-stake longshot; the position becomes less compelling above approximately 15% unless his overall target share rises.
Ashton Jeanty | RB 51%
- The Market Illusion: “An inefficient Raiders offense cannot support a better-than-even touchdown price.”
-
The Structural Reality: Jeanty has generated 26 red-zone opportunities through six games: 19 carries and seven targets. He owns approximately 70% of the Raiders’ red-zone carries and has scored three touchdowns from those opportunities.
Las Vegas has a middling 22.25-point implied total, while the Rams have allowed touchdowns on 50% of opponent red-zone trips. A 51% price requires a score every 1.96 games. The workload supports that threshold, but the environment offers limited assistance. Playable near 50%; unattractive if the price rises toward 60%.
Cam Skattebo | RB 22%
- The Market Illusion: “The Week 6 benching permanently erased his touchdown role.”
-
The Structural Reality: Skattebo received at least 15 touches in each of New York’s first five games, but four fumbles prompted a dramatic Week 6 reduction to six snaps and zero touches. Reports indicate a broader four-player rotation, with Najee Harris expected to receive more work. Skattebo practiced fully, so availability is not the central issue; trust is.
At 22%, the price requires a touchdown only once every 4.55 games, and Houston has permitted touchdowns on 62% of opponent red-zone trips. However, the Giants’ 16.5-point implied total is the week’s lowest, and recent usage makes the original value projection fragile. The actionable approach is to wait for confirmed rotation information; without restored goal-line work, 22% is not automatically cheap.
Week 7 anytime touchdown props to avoid
Every week, the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index flags the five worst Anytime Touchdown propositions on the board. We aren't talking about the longest odds or the lowest raw probabilities.
We are talking about toxic ROI. These are the spots where the public narrative has inflated the price so severely that the bet is mathematically dead on arrival.
If you are used to getting as much sleep on a Sunday night as Jalen Hurts did in London, these are your picks.
| Player | Position | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen ( vs.) |
WR | 15% | 43 | Pass unless red-zone target share rebounds. |
| Sam Darnold ( vs.) |
QB | 8% | 41 | Treat strictly as low-stake rushing upside. |
| Calvin Ridley ( vs.) |
WR | 7% | 41 | Only consider after route participation materially improves. |
| Bucky Irving ( vs.) |
RB | n.a. | 41 | Wait for active status and executable pricing. |
| Darius Cooper ( vs.) |
WR | n.a. | 33 | Avoid all Eagles players: offensive identity still TBC |
NFL Week 7 best anytime touchdown bets by position
If you are strictly a running back investor, or you only play tight end markets, we have you covered.
The index breaks down the board by position, highlighting the 10 clearest value plays across each skill group so you aren't blindly navigating a crowded market.
Top 10 quarterback TD props for Week 7
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy ( vs.) |
22% | 61 | Target only if designed runs remain featured. |
| Bo Nix ( vs.) |
20% | 57 | Use matchup, but demand goal-line rushing evidence. |
| C.J. Stroud ( vs.) |
17% | 57 | Playable only when scramble volume trends upward. |
| Kyler Murray ( vs.) |
22% | 55 | Wait for confirmed goal-line package usage. |
| Drake Maye ( vs.) |
20% | 55 | Lean in if red-zone carries stay consistent. |
| Jared Goff ( vs.) |
8% | 55 | Treat as speculative despite explosive offense. |
| Jordan Love ( vs.) |
10% | 54 | Longshot acceptable in projected shootout conditions. |
| Caleb Williams ( vs.) |
21% | 53 | Price fairly reflects rushing touchdown access. |
| Patrick Mahomes ( vs.) |
14% | 53 | Small stake; matchup improves off-script scoring chances. |
| Dak Prescott ( vs.) |
10% | 51 | Pass unless sneak usage increases materially. |
Top 10 running back TD props for Week 7
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd ( vs.) |
20% | 90 | Prioritize before market corrects emerging goal-line share. |
| Jahmyr Gibbs ( vs.) |
72% | 90 | Premium justified; avoid chasing shorter prices further. |
| Javonte Williams ( vs.) |
52% | 87 | Strong bet while inside-five workload remains dominant. |
| Kyren Williams ( vs.) |
58% | 83 | Back confidently against vulnerable short-yardage defense. |
| Kenneth Walker III ( vs.) |
57% | 80 | Accept price given concentrated goal-line ownership. |
| Ollie Gordon II ( vs.) |
33% | 79 | Exploit mispricing before expanded workload becomes consensus. |
| Christian McCaffrey ( vs.) |
68% | 79 | Playable, though premium price limits expected edge. |
| Derrick Henry ( vs.) |
64% | 77 | Use selectively; elite role already heavily priced. |
| D'Andre Swift ( vs.) |
57% | 76 | Strong option if workload remains injury-free. |
| Kendre Miller ( vs.) |
35% | 74 | Target while backfield competition stays limited. |
Top 10 wide receiver TD props for Week 7
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown ( vs.) |
56% | 86 | Prioritize elite end-zone share in highest-total game. |
| Matthew Golden ( vs.) |
38% | 74 | Playable where red-zone targets sustain recent growth. |
| Elic Ayomanor ( vs.) |
9% | 73 | Attack the discount despite weak offensive environment. |
| Cody White ( vs.) |
9% | 73 | Speculative value; confirm snap share before committing. |
| Puka Nacua ( vs.) |
55% | 71 | Avoid adding exposure unless price improves. |
| Christian Watson ( vs.) |
41% | 69 | Use selectively in shootout-focused touchdown portfolios. |
| Michael Wilson ( vs.) |
25% | 68 | Target if inside-ten usage remains concentrated. |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba ( vs.) |
42% | 68 | Fair value supported by league-leading red-zone targets. |
| Ja'Marr Chase ( vs.) |
46% | 67 | Playable, but matchup keeps ceiling somewhat constrained. |
| CeeDee Lamb ( vs.) |
44% | 67 | Hold for better price despite secure volume. |
Top 10 tight end TD props for Week 7
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle ( vs.) |
42% | 88 | Exploit elite red-zone role within efficient offense. |
| Sam LaPorta ( vs.) |
34% | 79 | Target strong inside-ten usage at favorable price. |
| Colby Parkinson ( vs.) |
19% | 75 | Prioritize discounted goal-line routes against weak defense. |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. ( vs.) |
24% | 74 | Buy the mispriced touchdown role, despite matchup. |
| Trey McBride ( vs.) |
39% | 73 | Playable when condensed targets persist near goal-line. |
| Darren Waller ( vs.) |
20% | 71 | Target red-zone involvement before market fully adjusts. |
| Colston Loveland ( vs.) |
33% | 71 | Use if end-zone routes remain elevated. |
| Tucker Kraft ( vs.) |
34% | 70 | Playable in shootout, especially below listed price. |
| Isaiah Likely ( vs.) |
26% | 69 | Exploit concentrated red-zone targets at moderate cost. |
| Brock Bowers ( vs.) |
45% | 69 | Role supports exposure, but avoid shorter prices. |
How we decide which Week 7 NFL anytime TDs to pick
Behind the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index is a screening matrix built on cold, structural math to help make the best anytime TD scorer predictions every week.
We don't care about media hype. We don't care who went viral on Sunday.
Our system runs a multi-layered data ingest, cross-referencing live play-by-play mechanics against odds from the sharpest sportsbooks in the world. We look at dozens of hyper-specific metrics, including:
| Player red-zone touches, inside the opponent’s 20-yard line | Weekly point spread |
| Player goal-to-go touches, approximated as touches inside the 5-yard line | Implied team total, derived from the total and spread |
| Player share of the team’s red-zone touches | Best available anytime-touchdown price |
| Player share of the team’s goal-to-go touches | Number of sportsbooks offering that price |
| Player red-zone touchdowns | Implied probability |
| Player red-zone touchdown rate per red-zone touch | Median market implied probability when multiple books are supplied |
| Team red-zone trips | Number of completed games played by the player’s team |
| Team offensive red-zone touchdown percentage | Prior-season weighting, used while the current-season sample develops |
| Opponent red-zone trips faced | Current injuries, availability, workload changes, and role stability |
| Opponent red-zone touchdown percentage allowed | Player position, team, opponent, and scheduled matchup |
| Weekly game total |
This isn't a black box running on mystery algorithms. It is a highly calibrated heuristic engine.
We map our proprietary scoring against the market’s implied probability to isolate the exact friction points where pricing lags behind actual on-field volume. It is a premium, data-driven edge built to find the value before the market wakes up.
The lines are already moving. The public is currently throwing money at stale narratives. Trust the math and exploit the structural friction to secure your closing line value before kickoff.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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