The Thursday Night Football matchup tonight is the classic dominant defense (Houston Texans) vs. elite offense (Buffalo Bills) grudge match.
Our NFL player prop projections have identified the best TNF prop values for this game, including both passing games finding success in prime time.
Bills vs Texans computer picks for Thursday Night Football
 Bills |
 Texans |
|---|---|
| Allen o224.5 pass -115 |
Mills o214.5 pass -110 |
| Cook o73.5 rush -115 |
Marks o11.5 rec -120 |
| Shakir o43.5 rec -110 |
Collins u74.5 rec -110 |
| Knox o24.5 rec -110 |
Schultz o37.5 rec -125 |
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Bills TNF computer picks
Josh Allen Over 224.5 passing yards (-115)
Projection: 241.03 yards
Allen has topped 273 yards in three straight games, so our projections like his chances of topping a much-lower total tonight.
James Cook Over 73.5 rushing yards (-115)
Projection: 86.23 yards
After going for 87+ yards six times in a seven-game stretch, Cook has 101 combined rush yards in his last two games — but our projections expect him to put up a big number again tonight.
Alternate-total bet
80+ yards (+110) - This price shows good value.
Khalil Shakir Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 60 yards
Shakir is averaging 45.4 yards per game, but with Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman out, plus Keon Coleman expected to be benched again, we're forecasting a bigger evening for the receiver.
Alternate-total bet
60+ yards (+200) - This number also shows strong value. Going 50+ yards at +120 is also a high-value prop.
Dawson Knox Over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 30.85 yards
Buffalo will also be without TE1 Dalton Kincaid, putting Knox in line for another game approaching 30 yards.
More Thursday Night Football picks from Covers
- Bills vs. Texans predictions
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- Bills vs Texans anytime TD picks
- Free NFL picks
Texans TNF computer picks
Davis Mills Over 214.5 passing yards (-110)
Projection: 236.56 yards
Mills has gone for 274 and 292 yards in his last two starts, so our projections like his chances to go Over 215 yards.
Alternate-total bet
225+ yards (+115) - This prop presents a strong value.
Woody Marks Over 11.5 receiving yards (-120)
Projection: 15.39 yards
We're not enthusiastic about his rushing yards prop, but our projections like Marks to chip in the passing game.
Nico Collins Under 74.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 73.94 yards
We're projecting Collins to finish just below his yardage prop, but he's pretty much right at that number.
Dalton Schultz Over 37.5 receiving yards (-125)
Projection: 42.16 yards
Our forecast for the Texans' TE is a little better, finishing above this number after going for 50+ in five of his last six games.
Not intended for use in MA.
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