Josh Allen Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Sam Farley breaks down his favorite Josh Allen picks and predictions as the Bills QB looks to beat the Texans for just the second time in his career.

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 19, 2025 • 18:07 ET • 4 min read
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks for a receiver.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks for a receiver.

On Thursday Night Football we see the Buffalo Bills facing the Houston Texans at the NRG Stadium, knowing that they need to win in order to apply some pressure to the New England Patriots who sit at the top of the AFC East.

Their hopes will sit on the shoulders of Josh Allen, as they always do, and the Bills’ quarterback will have a huge say on the outcome of Thursday’s game.

I’ve taken a long look at the Josh Allen odds at various sportsbooks to find the very best ways for you to get involved with Buffalo's QB on TNF.

Josh Allen prop pick

Josh Allen best bet: Josh Allen anytime touchdown (-125 at bet365)

Sitting second in the division isn’t how the reining MVP Josh Allen would have expected the season to go so far but the Buffalo Bills still have the potential to reclaim top spot.

When things really matter and games are on the line we’ve seen time and time again that Allen puts the team on his back and does what needs to be done to secure the win.

It’s not a shock that he scored three rushing touchdowns in last week’s vital win over the Bucs, or the fact that he’ scored seven touchdowns in his past four games, having had just three in the six games before that. When it matters, Allen trusts his legs.

We saw a similar split last year, with Allen scoring just three rushing touchdowns in the first nine games of the season, before scoring 11 in the 10 that followed them. This is a player who always turns up when his team need him.

James Cook has 30 red zone rushes to Allen’s 21, but inside the 10 it’s a different story with Allen having 16 to Cooks’ 12. Allen has scored in three of his past four outings and is well worth backing to continue his second-half of the season rushing TD trend.

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Josh Allen same-game parlay

Josh Allen anytime touchdown

James Cook Under 75.5 rushing yards

Tyrell Shavers Over 19.5 receiving yards

We’re getting odds of +600 on our Josh Allen same-game parlay.

As mentioned in the write-up for our best bet, when it really matters Allen puts the team on his back. That is one reason that could be behind James Cook going from a season-high 27 carries in week nine to just 13 and 16 in his past two games.

In that span he’s managed a total of just 101 yards and now faces a Texan’s defense who have given up 87.1 rushing yards per game, the third fewest in the entire NFL.

Last week we saw second-year wideout Tyrell Shavers have his breakout game, catching four of five passing attempts for 90 yards and a touchdown.

He’s unlikely to match those numbers again this week but he’s been praised by Allen in the week, and the Bills are still without pass catchers Curtis Samuel, Mecole Hardman and Dalton Kincaid, with Keon Coleman’s role still up in the air following his benching in the last game.

Shavers has had Over 19.5 receiving yards in his previous two games and following his performance in the win over the Bucs he’s earned the opportunity to be targeted again.

Bet on TNF at bet365!

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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