49ers vs Seahawks Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks: JSN Cuts Through San Fran Defense

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been trending up in recent weeks, and with the 49ers' secondary banged up, tonight could be the perfect opportunity for him to find the end zone for the second time this season.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 10, 2024 • 10:55 ET • 4 min read
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

An NFC West war between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks gets the Week 6 odds underway.

This Thursday Night Football showcase currently has an Over/Under total just shy of 50 points. And with ample offensive weapons on the field for both teams, that means plenty of pop in the anytime touchdown markets. 

I dig into those odds and highlight some players in my NFL picks below. Check out my full 49ers vs. Seahawks predictions and 49ers vs. Seahawks live blog for real-time updates ahead of kickoff.

49ers anytime touchdown pick

George Kittle anytime touchdown
+175 at FanDuel

Depending on where you bet, George Kittle is priced as short as +140 to score his fourth touchdown of the season. If you shop around, however, you get San Francisco’s star tight end at +175 to find the end zone tonight. 

Despite his output and leading the San Francisco 49ers in red-zone targets, Kittle is sitting behind Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk in the anytime touchdown odds. If you read my 49ers vs. Seahawks predictions, you’ll see I’m expecting a busy night for Kittle. 

He faces a Seattle Seahawks defense protecting against the deeper pass and playing plenty of high safety schemes. That’s left Seattle soft underneath, which has allowed rival TEs to go to work in the intermediate passing game.

The Seahawks defense is very banged up heading into Thursday night, with bodies questionable at linebacker as well as safety — two positions assigned to tight ends in coverage.

Player projections list Kittle as the one tight end most likely to score a touchdown in Week 6, with models sitting at 0.4 to 0.5 TDs tonight. That probability roughly pans out to +144, which is where most books have Kittle prices, but you can get extra bang for your buck at +175 over at FanDuel.

Seahawks anytime touchdown pick

Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown
+200 at FanDuel

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is quickly becoming Geno Smith’s favorite option, sitting just two targets behind D.K. Metcalf for the team lead. 

That’s especially true inside the red zone, where Smith-Njigba tops the Seahawks in RZ targets with five, including his first touchdown catch of 2024 coming in last week’s loss to the Giants.

He’s Seattle’s top-rated wide receiver in short and intermediate routes at PFF, lining up almost exclusively in the slot. San Francisco is the 11th-worst defense against slot receivers and this secondary is potentially missing a lot of pieces on the short week. 

Safety Talanoa Hufanga hit IR this week, and corner Charvarius Ward is questionable (knee) for Week 6. What’s more, the other starting corner, Isaac Yiadom, is playing through a thigh injury. With the 49ers throwing whatever they have left at Metcalf, JSN will see favorable matchups on most snaps.

Week 6 player projections call for between 0.29 and 0.38 touchdowns from Smith-Njigba, which should have his touchdown odds between +245 and +163. The current market has him listed from +190 to +210. 

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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