The NFL’s first-ever regular-season game in Australia brings a heated NFC West rivalry to the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground.
The Rams enter as 3.5-point favorites against the 49ers, with the total set at 48.5. Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday, Sept. 10 at 8:35 p.m. ET, which will be Friday, Sept. 11 at 10:35 a.m. local time.
My 49ers vs. Rams predictions dig into the Shanahan vs. McVay rivalry and the travel situations for each team, along with some outlier stats.
Read on for my NFL picks for Week 1's Thursday Night Football game.
TOP PICK
49ers vs Rams prediction: 49ers +3.5
The Los Angeles Rams are loaded, but history suggests this spread is too high. Los Angeles is just 8-11 straight up in 19 meetings between Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, with only four of those wins coming by four or more points.
The preparation gap could be equally important.
The San Francisco 49ers arrived in Melbourne nearly a week before kickoff, while Los Angeles plans to land roughly 24 hours before the game following a 15-hour flight. That late arrival could leave the Rams dealing with jet lag and limited time to adjust to the time-zone change.
They've obviously each done their homework on this, and it's interesting that they've come up with dramatically different approaches. Based on my experience with traveling to different continents and the subsequent sluggishness that comes with it, I greatly prefer the 49ers' plan.
San Francisco also enters as the healthiest version of the team we've seen in some time, with Nick Bosa confirmed to play and George Kittle trending in the right direction. Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald won't play Thursday.
Take the points with a 49ers team fully capable of winning outright.
COVERS INTEL: Christian McCaffrey has averaged 62.2 receiving yards across his last five games against Los Angeles.
49ers vs Rams combo
San Francisco has repeatedly kept this matchup close and enters with a significant acclimation advantage after spending nearly a full week in Melbourne. The hook could be crucial in another tight divisional battle.
Brock Purdy averaged 16.3 rushing yards across nine appearances last season, and topped 20 in four of his final five games, including the playoffs. Los Angeles’ ferocious pass rush should create scrambling opportunities and force him out of the pocket.
Christian McCaffrey produced 82 and 66 receiving yards in last season’s meetings, and has cleared 40 in four of his last five against the Rams. Los Angeles struggled to defend running backs in the passing game last season, creating a favorable matchup for McCaffrey.
49ers vs Rams combo
- 49ers +3.5
- Brock Purdy 15+ rushing yards
- Christian McCaffrey 40+ receiving yards
49ers vs Rams touchdown scorer: Davante Adams anytime TD
Davante Adams remains one of football’s most dangerous touchdown threats. Despite missing the final three games last season, he led the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns on 60 catches for 789 yards.
His real value comes near the goal line, where the majority of his scores occurred last season. With Puka Nacua attracting attention between the 20s, expect Matthew Stafford to continue looking for Adams when the field shrinks.
49ers vs Rams odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: 49ers +3.5 | Rams -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (48%) | Under 48.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: 49ers 36% | Rams 64%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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49ers vs Rams weather
The open-air MCG should be cool at kickoff, with temperatures around 54°F. Weather is not expected to significantly affect the game.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
49ers vs Rams trend to know
In 19 head-to-head matchups vs. Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and the Rams only have four wins by four or more points. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Rams.
How to watch 49ers vs Rams
| Location | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Australia |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Netflix |
49ers vs Rams latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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