Sunday’s NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions at Ford Field features a 3.5-point favorite, Detroit, with a 53.5-point total.
My Packers vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer predictions target National Tight Ends Day, with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET and several compelling scoring angles to watch.
Check out more NFL picks for Week 7’s full slate of matchups and top plays.
Best Packers vs Lions anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Tucker Kraft |
38% |
 Sam LaPorta |
38% |
| First TD: MarShawn Lloyd |
4% |
| Long shot: Pierre Strong |
17% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Packers touchdown pick: Tucker Kraft
Sunday is National Tight Ends Day, so the vibes are there for Tucker Kraft.
Kraft was on a breakout run before tearing his ACL last season, and he's already Green Bay's third-target option in this pass-heavy offense. He's also scored a touchdown in three of his five career games against Detroit.
The matchup is even better this time around. Detroit has allowed an NFL-high nine receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season, and its safeties have been a major reason why. Brian Branch is expected back, but Kerby Joseph remains sidelined.
That leaves the middle of the field vulnerable again.
Given Kraft's role, history, and matchup, his anytime touchdown prop is tradable up to 40%.
Lions touchdown pick: Sam LaPorta
Detroit TE Sam LaPorta publicly voiced frustration with his contract negotiations on Barstool's Pardon My Take, and with Dan Campbell being a former NFL tight end himself, National Tight Ends Day feels like a pretty good time to feed LaPorta.
More importantly, LaPorta's three touchdown catches are the second-most on Detroit, and Pro Football Focus currently grades him fourth among qualified tight ends.
Defenses also can't sell out to stop him. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB Jahmyr Gibbs demand too much attention elsewhere, which keeps LaPorta in favorable matchups.
Between his scoring role, efficiency, and the weapons around him, LaPorta has a clean path to another red-zone opportunity Sunday.
First touchdown scorer pick: MarShawn Lloyd
The 4% probability is too short, considering RB MarShawn Lloyd has been Green Bay's primary ball carrier this season.
Lloyd is also the only Packers running back with a touchdown, scoring twice on the ground and once through the air. That makes him the back I want when Green Bay gets into scoring range.
Detroit's defensive front also gets pushed around more than you'd expect. The Lions rank 29th in yards-per-carry allowed before contact, according to Pro.NFL.com.
Between Lloyd's expected workload and Detroit's struggles in the trenches, his first-touchdown prop should be at least 8%.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Pierre Strong
Packers backup RB Pierre Strong Jr. got more snaps than Lloyd (41-30) against Dallas last week, but Josh Jacobs is expected to return on Sunday and will eventually take carries away from both.
However, Strong could take most of the offensive snaps this week because he is a dual-threat out of the backfield. Last week, Strong had a team-high 11 carries and five receptions.
If the Packers go down big, Strong will likely get the most carries. They won't give Jacobs carries in garbage time in his first week back, and Strong's pass-catching ability gives him an edge over Lloyd in a trailing game state.
Given Green Bay's iffy running back situation, Strong's anytime touchdown prop should be closer to 20%.
Packers vs Lions touchdown combo
Tucker Kraft
Sam LaPorta
This is a fun National Tight Ends Day special because both players sit in offenses that can create clean scoring chances.
Kraft gets the softer matchup, with Detroit leaking touchdowns to tight ends and still struggling in the middle of its defense. LaPorta has the tougher individual spot, but Detroit’s offense creates so much stress elsewhere that defenses can’t simply bracket him near the goal line.
The strategy is basically embracing touchdown variance with two players who already have established red-zone roles. If this game turns into the shootout the market expects, both should get chances to cash.
- TD picks: 16-34, -10.28 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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