The Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field on Sunday, Oct. 25, at 4:25 p.m. ET, with the Lions favored by 3.5 and the total set at 53.5.
My Packers vs. Lions prop picks focus on three matchup-driven angles involving Jordan Love, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Check out the rest of our NFL picks for Week 7.
Best Packers vs Lions props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jordan Love 275+ passing yards |
59% |
 Jameson Williams Under 49.5 receiving yards |
49% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Under 89.5 rushing yards |
48% |
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Prop pick #1: Jordan Love 275+ passing yards
The Over for Jordan Love's 275+ passing yards prop is good until 63%, and I'd even consider "laddering" him at 300+ and 325+ passing yards.
Love has been balling lately, and the Detroit Lions' pass coverage sucks. Over the last two weeks, Love is fifth in adjusted EPA per play, per RBSDM.com. He's thrown for 276+ yards in four of his six games this season, and the Lions are giving up the most passing yards per game.
In a world where the Green Bay Packers ask Love to drop back more to keep up in a shootout with Detroit, and with this game in a dome (Ford Field), conditions are quarterback-friendly.
Prop pick #2: Jameson Williams Under 49.5 receiving yards
It's crazy that the Over on Jameson Williams' receiving-yards prop is below 55%.
According to Pro Football Focus, Green Bay's defense leads the NFL in pass coverage grade, and Williams has the worst yards after completion per catch in the league among 123 wide receivers.
That matters because Williams does most of his damage downfield, and the Packers have the second-best explosive play rate on defense, per Warren Sharp. If Green Bay forces him to win underneath, that's not his game.
The results already point that way. Williams has finished with fewer than 50 receiving yards in four of five games this season, with his lone breakout coming against Carolina.
Prop pick #3: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 89.5 rushing yards
This is another Under that should be trading closer to 55%.
Believe it or not, Jahmyr Gibbs has never rushed for more than 68 yards in six career games against Green Bay. He's averaging only 48.2 rushing yards in those matchups. Gibbs managed 83 rushing yards against the Cardinals in 2024 when current Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon was Arizona's head coach.
More importantly, Green Bay is winning at the point of attack. The Packers rank seventh in yards before contact allowed per carry, per Pro.NFL.com, which should make Gibbs work for everything instead of giving him clean lanes into the second level.
- Prop picks: 14-19, -5.98 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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