The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams head DOWN UNDAH for the first Thursday Night Football matchup of the season, and I'm ready to throw some NFL picks ON THE BARBIE.
Find out who I think is finding paydirt in Melbourne tonight with 49ers vs. Rams touchdown picks for Sept. 10. Be sure to also check out our complete 49ers vs. Rams predictions!
OY OY OY!
Best 49ers vs Rams anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown |
56% |
 Puka Nacua anytime touchdown |
40% |
| Davante Adams first touchdown |
11% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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49ers touchdown pick: Christian McCaffrey
A Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown priced at 56%? Oh, Kalshi, you are saying all the right things and touching all the right buttons... 🫦
CMC appears to be ready to go in Week 1, and his workload will be steep. Rookie Kaelon Black is positioned as the San Francisco 49ers' RB2, and I don't see them giving him much run — especially in the red zone.
McCaffrey led all RBs last year in RZ rush attempts, scoring 10 times. He also had the fourth-most targets through the air with 25, and he hauled 20 of them in — seven being in the end zone.
His body of work when San Francisco gets close is too good to pass up, and this is probably one of the shorter prices we'll see for CMC in the touchdown market. Play this to 60%.
Rams touchdown pick: Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua's offseason drama has obscured how good he was in 2025, leading the league in receptions on the best offense in the NFL.
He now faces a 49ers defense that coughed up the 11th-most TDs through the air, and half of Nacua's scores last season came outside the red zone.
Nick Bosa is expected to play but remains limited in practice, and if he isn't 100%, I don't see the Niners' D-line putting much pressure on Matthew Stafford in the pocket after they recorded a league-low 20 sacks last season.
That'll give the reigning MVP plenty of time to find his top receiver for six points. Play this to 44%.
First touchdown scorer pick: Davante Adams
Who better to open the scoring in Melbourne than Stafford's favorite RZ target — Davante Adams!
The veteran wide receiver was targeted 31 times inside the 20 last season (third most) and hauled in 13 catches. What's even crazier, 12 of those were for a tuddy.
Adams is the definition of a safety blanket, and oftentimes McVay opted to go to him rather than run in the rock. The first trip down the field for the Rams may very well end up in the hands of the 33-year-old.
49ers vs Rams touchdown combo
Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown
Puka Nacua anytime touchdown
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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