A 1980s rivalry known for an infamous shirt and nickname returns for the second straight season as Miami heads to Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Ind., on Saturday to take on Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) with College GameDay in town.
The Fighting Irish are 7.5-point home favorites, but my Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football picks are backing Darian Mensah to keep this game close without his top target.
Miami vs Notre Dame predictions for Week 10
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| ⭐Spread prediction | Miami +7.5 |
| Over/Under prediction | Over 54.5 |
| Combo | 4.13x |
TOP PICK
Who will win Miami vs Notre Dame: Miami +7.5
The news that Malachi Toney was injured in practice this week and won't play against Notre Dame has dominated headlines and shifted the Fighting Irish from 5.5-point favorites to 7.5-point favorites. But even without Toney, I like Miami to cover +6.5 or better on the road.
Darian Mensah is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for a reason; he leads the country in QBR (90.3) and adjusted completion percentage (86.2%). He also has one of the best running back duos in college football and a No. 2 wide receiver in Cooper Barkate, whom he trusts immensely. Mensah won the ACC Championship at Duke last year with Barkate as his top receiver (1,106 receiving yards).
Even without Toney, Miami has more talented playmakers than CJ Carr and Notre Dame, and the Irish aren't healthy in their back seven. Notre Dame has ruled out linebacker Drayk Bowen, safety Tae Johnson, and cornerback DJ McKinney.
COVERS INTEL: Shannon Dawson's offense at Miami has the most efficient passing attack in college football, ranking No. 1 nationally in pass success rate (59.2%). Notre Dame is down two NFL-caliber starters in its secondary (Johnson, McKinney) and ranks outside the top 30 in pass success rate on defense (41%).Miami vs Notre Dame Over/Under pick: Over 54.5
With Mensah and Carr arguably the top two QBs in college football this season, I would play the Over at 55.5 or better, even with Toney out. Mensah is deadly accurate and ranks No. 1 in college football in TD passes (25), with Miami ranking No. 2 in the country in offensive success rate (52.4%).
Notre Dame isn't far behind, though, sitting No. 4 in offensive success rate (51.4%) thanks to Carr, who ranks eighth in QBR (82.6), 11th in big-time throw rate (6.9%), and 18th in TD passes (18).
Miami's pass defense has also been suspect at times, and Carr can take advantage. The Hurricanes are ranked just 110th in EPA per dropback.
In the Fighting Irish's previous two games against teams ranked in the Top 50 by SP+, they hit the Over.
Miami vs Notre Dame combo
This is the "game of the century" of the week in college football and the No. 1 must-watch matchup in my Week 10 Top 25 predictions, featuring the season's most loaded slate.
While Miami would certainly be an upset threat to Notre Dame with Toney, I don't think Mario Cristobal's team will roll over in its biggest game of the season. The Hurricanes ended last season by covering the spread in four straight College Football Playoff games, including three as an underdog.
Cristobal knows how to get his team up, and Notre Dame has had slow starts in three of its last four games, failing to cover in all three of those games as a favorite.
Miami vs Notre Dame combo
- Miami +7.5
- Over 54.5
- Miami first half +4.5
- Top picks: 20-16, +1.39 units
- Combos: 8-28, -1.78 units
Miami vs Notre Dame odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Miami +7.5 | Notre Dame -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (50%) | Under 54.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Miami 30% | Notre Dame 70%
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Miami vs Notre Dame weather
Weather isn't expected to have an effect on this matchup in South Bend on Saturday night.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Miami vs Notre Dame trend to know
Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs. Notre Dame.
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How to watch Miami vs Notre Dame
| Location | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Ind. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Miami vs Notre Dame latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
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