Two service academies looking to improve their bowl positioning will face off on Saturday when Army hosts Air Force at West Point.
These defenses haven't stopped much of anything this season, so I'm expecting both teams to run wild and hit the Over in my Air Force vs. Army prediction. Let's break down my college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 7.
Air Force vs Army predictions for Week 10
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline/spread prediction | Air Force moneyline |
| ⭐Over/Under prediction | Over 46.5 |
| Combo | 7.42x |
Who will win Air Force vs Army: Air Force
These service academies aren't playing much defense this year, and Army has been especially leaky. Army has allowed 25.5 points per game, and is permitting opponents to rack up 6.6 yards per play. The Black Knights also haven't been good against the run, giving up 152.4 yards per game on the ground.
That's welcome news for Air Force, a team that leads all FBS squads in rushing attempts per game (64.6) and is second in rushing yards per contest (341.0). The Falcons field five different players with 390-plus yards on the ground this year, with quarterback Evan Medders averaging 6.7 yards per carry and running back Rocco Conti right behind him at 6.4 yards per rush. Medders is recovering from a turf toe injury and his status is uncertain, though he hasn't been ruled out yet.
This is a matchup nightmare for Army, and Air Force should pound the ball on the ground at will. I like Air Force to win outright at up to 50%.
COVERS INTEL: Army ranks 136th of 138 FBS teams in adjusted EPA per play on defense (0.23), and is 133rd in defensive EPA per rush (0.23). TOP PICK
Air Force vs Army Over/Under pick: Over 46.5
We can't expect much out of the Army defense in this matchup, but let's not get the idea that Air Force will shut down the Black Knights, either. Air Force is 108th in adjusted defensive EPA (0.09), with the Falcons allowing a poor 4.6 yards per run.
Army can take advantage of that, as it leads the nation in both rushing yards (342.5 per game) and yards per rush (6.4). That's allowed the Black Knights to put up 33.6 ppg themselves this season.
Air Force's defense isn't quite as disastrous as Army's unit, which is why I like them to win, but both teams will score. I like the Over up to 48.5 points.
Air Force vs Army combo
The key markets I'm targeting for this game are the Over and Air Force, and that makes a good base for a combo. I'm throwing in a play on the Falcons to also win the first half.
There won't be any surprises in this matchup. Both teams will line up and run the ball at each other, and I don't see a way for Army to stop that approach from Air Force. Without major halftime adjustments or other factors to make me think the two halves will play out differently, I love the Falcons on the moneyline for the first half as well.
Air Force vs Army combo
- Air Force ML
- Over 46.5
- Air Force 1st Half ML
- Top picks: 4-2, +1.67 units
- Combos: 1-5, +0.30 units
Air Force vs Army odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Air Force +2.5 | Army -2.5
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (46%) | Under 46.5 (55%)
- Moneyline: Air Force 42% | Army 58%
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Air Force vs Army weather
The cool and clear weather should be excellent for this game, and a mild wind will have no impact on the already limited passing attacks.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Air Force vs Army trend to know
The Over is 7-2 in Army's last nine games. Find more college football betting trends for Air Force vs. Army.
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How to watch Air Force vs Army
| Location | Michie Stadium, West Point, NY |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Air Force vs Army latest injuries
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