Texas is heading into Columbia, Mo. with its Top 2 receivers both questionable, and our Texas vs. Missouri prediction starts with what that does to an offense that was already sputtering.
Missouri is 4-0 at home and comes off a 34-10 win at Arkansas. The Tigers’ defense lives in the backfield, and Texas has struggled to protect Manning all season.
Check out why I’m taking the points with Missouri and backing the Under for Saturday’s SEC showdown with our latest college football picks for Week 10.
TOP PICK
Who will win Texas vs. Missouri: Missouri +2.5
I would play the Missouri Tigers to cover this number down to 52%.
The Texas Longhorns’ passing game runs through Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, and both are questionable after leaving the win over Mississippi State hurt. Coleman hasn’t practiced this week.
To make matters worse, left tackle Trevor Goosby is out. Arch Manning was already producing -0.04 EPA per dropback with all three of them in the lineup.
Missouri’s Austin Simmons sits at 0.20 EPA per dropback, and he gets a Texas secondary with two starting corners listed as questionable. Mizzou is 4-0 at home this season, winning those games by an average of 24.8 points.
I'll gladly take the team in better form with the better offense.
COVERS INTEL: The metrics show Missouri winning the field-position battle by 5.7 yards per drive, 13th nationally, while Texas sits 79th at -0.6 yards.
Texas vs. Missouri Over/Under pick: Under 43.5
I’d play the Under to 42.5.
Missouri will want to lean on Jamal Roberts, but they own a 37.8% rushing success rate, 128th nationally. That’s a rough matchup against a Texas defense allowing a 35.8% rushing success rate, seventh in the country.
Missouri also stalls near the goal line, posting a 35.7% success rate in the red zone, 125th nationally.
The Texas offense will come into this one banged up and already struggling. Neither offense is built to win a shootout.
Texas vs. Missouri combo
Every leg runs through the same idea. Texas’ offense was already the weak link before its top receivers got hurt, and Missouri can win a low-scoring game at home.
The moneyline anchors it. If Texas can’t move the ball past midfield, Missouri doesn’t need a big day from its own offense to win, and both totals stay low.
If the Tigers’ run game gets stuffed instead, that only strengthens the Under.
Texas vs. Missouri combo
- Missouri moneyline
- Under 43.5
- Texas team total Under 23.5
- Top picks: 8-5, +2.63 units
- Combos: 3-10, +4.03 units
Texas vs. Missouri odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas -2.5 | Missouri +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (50%) | Under 46.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Texas 54% | Missouri 48%
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Texas vs. Missouri weather
Saturday’s forecast in Columbia calls for temperatures in the mid-40s at kickoff, no chance of precipitation, and light winds around 4 mph. The game should not be meaningfully impacted by the weather.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas vs. Missouri trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Tigers' last six games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs. Missouri.
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How to watch Texas vs. Missouri
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | Noon ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Texas vs. Missouri latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
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