Two of the winningest teams in the Western Conference meet on Friday, Nov. 6, as the Memphis Grizzlies host the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Riding a two-game win streak, the Thunder are favored, but my NBA picks & Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction expect the Grizzlies to cover as modest home dogs.
I’m predicting big offensive performances for Ty Jerome and Cameron Boozer, and I’m taking the Over on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists line as he shifts from scorer to facilitator.
TOP PICK
Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction: Grizzlies +3.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have dropped two straight games, but they’ve played well enough this season to be spotted 3.5 points, and I’ll trade this spread down to 2.5 points.
The Grizzlies rank second in three-pointers made (15.8) and are the only team shooting 40% from beyond the arc. Memphis isn’t just a perimeter team, however, as it leads the Association in rebounds at 49.5.
With Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace out, Memphis’ go-to scorer Ty Jerome can attack a compromised defense by scoring or dishing to his strong supporting cast of shooters.
The injury-plagued Oklahoma City Thunder will need a monster performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to cover, and Memphis has the size, length and athleticism to slow him down.
COVERS INTEL: Memphis is the only team that ranks in the Top 5 in Offensive and Defensive Rating. The Grizzlies’ 10.4 Net Rating ranks fourth, and their 10.8 point differential per game is third.
Thunder vs Grizzlies combo
Betting Memphis to cover is the safer wager, but I’m willing to take a chance on them SU in this combo given their deep bench and two-way versatility.
Over the last five games, the Thunder have surrendered the eighth-most points (116.2) and seventh-highest 3P% (38).
Jerome is the overwhelming favorite to win Most Improved Player behind 27.4 ppg. Through seven games, he’s scored 20+ five times with a pair of 40-point performances.
Cameron Boozer is knocking down 2.3 triples at a 36.7% clip. The rookie has hit multiple treys in five of seven contests, yet this prop is traded at 35%, making it a nice addition to this combo.
Thunder vs Grizzlies combo
- Grizzlies moneyline
- Ty Jerome Over 19.5 points
- Cameron Boozer Over 2.5 three-pointers
Thunder vs Grizzlies player props
Thunder player prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 assists
SGA took a ridiculous 61 shots across his last two games, and his monster scoring (85 total points) is the only reason the Thunder won back-to-back contests against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Grizzlies’ gameplan will be clear - pack the paint or send double-teams to limit SGA’s shot attempts, and force others to beat them.
Gilgeous-Alexander has totaled 16 assists across his last two, and I expect him to be more of a facilitator than a scorer on Friday night.
Grizzlies player prop: Ty Jerome Over 2.5 three-pointers
Opponents are attempting the second-most triples against the Thunder (42.4) and hitting the third-most (15.3). Jerome's three-point volume is the highest of his career at 6.9 3PA per contest, and he's canned 3+ in three of seven games.
Jerome has shot a scorching 7-of-16 from beyond the arc across his last two games, and I expect him to keep the hot streak going in this favorable home matchup as he looks to help his team snap a two-game skid.
- Top picks: 4-9, -5.16 units
- Combos: 0-13, -13.00 units
- Props: 11-13, -2.38 units
Thunder vs Grizzlies odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Thunder -3.5 (53%) | Grizzlies +3.5 (49%)
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 (54%) | Under 224.5 (47%)
- Moneyline: Thunder 62% | Grizzlies 39%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Thunder vs Grizzlies trend
The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Thunder vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Friday, Nov. 6, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KSBI, DAZN MEM |
Thunder vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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