Even though the Toronto Raptors are rightfully favored to secure their first 2026 NBA Cup win, despite playing their fourth game in six days, my Raptors vs. Bucks prediction still has arguably the worst team in the Eastern Conference covering the spread against the visitors from north of the border.
Milwaukee is an underdog for the eighth time in eight games, this time at +7.5, for an 8 p.m. ET tipoff on its home floor at Fiserv Forum.
Let's dive into my analysis and NBA picks for Friday, Nov. 6.
TOP PICK
Raptors vs Bucks prediction: Bucks +7.5
Play up to 53%.
Tonight's matchup concludes a four-game road trip for the Toronto Raptors, who've quickly been humbled after a blistering start to the campaign. Kawhi Leonard (knee) remains sidelined, and they needed a 16-point comeback against the depleted Los Angeles Clippers on Monday to avoid what would otherwise have been a third straight defeat.
Toronto's defense has allowed 125.1 points per 100 possessions (28th) over the last four games, a significant decline from 111.4 points per 100 possessions (13th) during its 3-1 start. The Milwaukee Bucks have the offensive tools to capitalize on that, especially from behind the arc.
Milwaukee currently sits sixth in 3-pointers made (15.1) and first in attempts (44.1), while the Raptors have allowed opponents to convert 36.9% of their attempts from distance (25th). Across Toronto's four losses, opposing squads have buried a scorching 48% from the perimeter, the second-highest opposing 3-point percentage in the league.
Scottie Barnes (adductor) is now listed as questionable, and his potential absence would give the Bucks a clearer path to a more competitive game.
COVERS INTEL: Toronto is just 1-2 straight up and against the spread when Scottie Barnes doesn't lead the team in scoring. Aside from the aforementioned Clippers comeback, the two other defeats came by an average of 21 points.
Raptors vs Bucks combo
The Raptors have won their last three meetings with the Bucks, including two on the road during the 2025-26 season, by an average of 17.5 points.
All three games, however, finished Under the total. The two sides are part of a small group of 10 teams currently sitting with a winning record in this department. Toronto is 0-2 when the total is set at 231.5 points or more.
Kel'el Ware is averaging a career-low 18.1 minutes coming off the pine for Milwaukee, but that hasn't stifled his rebounding. He's bringing in 8.3 per contest, equating to 15.1 per 36 minutes. You can't teach being seven feet tall, and that gives him a profound advantage against an undersized Raptors frontcourt.
Raptors vs Bucks combo
- Raptors moneyline
- Under 231.5 points
- Kel'el Ware Over 7.5 rebounds
Raptors vs Bucks player props
Raptors player prop: Jakob Poeltl Under 8.5 points
Play up to 58%.
While likely just a temporary move, Jakob Poeltl was shifted to the second unit for Wednesday's road encounter with the Denver Nuggets after missing the previous two games with left shoulder bursitis.
Fans have long been calling for Poeltl to be removed from the starting lineup in favor of the younger, more mobile Collin Murray-Boyles. CMB was a -4 in 23 minutes during a 19-point loss, compared to Poeltl's -11 in 19 minutes.
The 7-foot Austrian big man has finished with at least nine points only once through six appearances. He's playing his fewest minutes since 2020 and can't be trusted to play anything more than short spurts.
Bucks player prop: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 14.5 points
Play up to 60% and 16.5 points.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. is fed up with moral victories, as he proclaimed after the Bucks rallied from a 22-point deficit against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday before eventually falling by seven.
He'll need to continue putting his money where his mouth is if he wants to get Milwaukee out of the basement in the East. Jaquez has contributed 18 or more points in three of the last four games, so he's at least pulling his own weight.
The 25-year-old wing is second on the roster in points and shot attempts, so projecting no fewer than 15 points isn't demanding much.
- Top picks: 8-9, -2.87 units
- Combos: 4-13, +8.96 units
- Props: 17-15, -0.62 units
Raptors vs Bucks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Raptors -7.5 (53%) | Bucks +7.5 (54%)
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 (53%) | Under 232.5 (54%)
- Moneyline: Raptors (71%) | Bucks (30%)
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Raptors vs Bucks trend
The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Raptors vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wis. |
| Date | Friday, Nov. 6, 2026 |
| Tip off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | MyMi, Sportsnet |
Raptors vs Bucks latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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