A rare non-conference game in Week 6 sees Arizona State host Hawaii tonight at Mountain America Stadium, with both teams badly in need of a win. Arizona State is the 20.5-point favorite with a 92% win probability at home.
With both offenses sputtering and rain in the forecast, my Hawaii vs. Arizona State prediction and Week 6 college football picks predict a sloppy contest.
Tune into this game on FS1 at 10:30 p.m. ET today, Saturday, Oct. 10. For more Mountain West and other non-Power Four action, see our Week 6 Group of 6 predictions.
Who will win Hawaii vs Arizona State tonight? Pick: Hawaii +20.5
Play Hawaii down to +18.5 as Arizona State hasn't been trustworthy enough to lay three scores with.
The Sun Devils' most impressive performance is either a 28-point loss (Texas A&M) or an FCS blowout (Morgan State). The two most recent data points have seen them muster just 3.5 yards per play against Kansas and get dominated 55-19 by Baylor.
Kenny Dillingham's squad ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per play on both offense (112th) and defense (105th). The issues are plentiful, and this could take a while to fix, so covering a three-score spread is more than I can ask at current.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
TOP PICK
Hawaii vs Arizona State Over/Under pick: Under 50.5
Neither offense is trustworthy, and the forecast is calling for rain (63% chance throughout the contest), so here's banking on a low-scoring contest.
Hawaii bottles up big plays on defense (33rd in passing explosiveness allowed), which is crucial against a receiver like Reed Harris (19.2 yards per reception). Arizona State's poor offensive line (100th in line yards) hasn't been able to provide the requisite push for the ground game to become a reliable weapon.
Its defensive weakness is allowing too many big plays (130th in explosiveness). That's not a problem against Hawaii, which has the second-highest passing rate (64.1%) yet checks in at 123rd in explosiveness generated through the air.
COVERS INTEL: Hawaii's main issue on defense is stopping the run, where it ranks 128th in PFF's metric and 117th in EPA per rush allowed. That concern is mitigated against Arizona State, which is averaging 3.4 yards per carry against FBS opponents and ranks 125th in EPA per rush. Hawaii vs Arizona State combo
If this is a sloppy game in the rain, it'll benefit the underdog, so this is a correlated combo.
Neither team is clicking on all cylinders, and both squads could come out tight given the importance of grabbing a win to establish much-needed momentum.
See more in our favorite college football combos for Week 6.
Hawaii vs Arizona State combo
- Hawaii +20.5
- Under 50.5
- First half Under 27.5
Hawaii vs Arizona State prop: First half Under 27.5
Hawaii has gotten off to low-scoring starts, combining with its opponents to score more than 21 points in the first half just once all season.
The Run-and-Shoot offense can't run (117th in EPA per rush), and it'll be difficult to shoot given the rain. Arizona State's offensive performance has been so bad that it's switching play-callers, and it may take time to adjust to Marcus Arroyo's tendencies.
More Week 6 college football picks
- Today's top college football picks: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Brad Powers' Week 6 power rankings: best bets, upgrades and downgrades
- College football Week 6 moneyline picks
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 6
- College football AI predictions Week 6: ATS and Over/Under picks for every game
- College football Week 6 picks against the spread
- Our favorite college football combos for Week 6
- College football Top 25 predictions and best bets: Week 6
- Our favorite Group of 6 predictions: Week 6
- College football player props: Week 6
- Top picks: 8-6, +1.31 units
- Combos: 6-8, +19.97 units
Hawaii vs Arizona State odds tonight
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Hawaii +20.5 | Arizona State -20.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (52%) | Under 50.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Hawaii 9% | Arizona State 91%
For the full slate of Week 6 college football matchups, check out our Week 6 college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
- Week 6 college football picks
- Week 6 college football odds
- National Championship odds
- Heisman Trophy odds
Hawaii vs Arizona State weather
With a 63% chance of rain today, both passing attacks could be negatively impacted.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Hawaii vs Arizona State trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Hawaii's last four games. Find more college football betting trends for Hawaii vs. Arizona State.
How to watch Hawaii vs Arizona State
| Location | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Ariz. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Hawaii vs Arizona State latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
