The No. 3 seed Purdue Boilermakers face the No. 7 seed Miami Hurricanes in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday afternoon.
Both teams have efficient offenses and vulnerable defenses, which is why my Miami vs. Purdue predictions are targeting the total.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this West Region showdown on March 22.
Miami vs Purdue prediction
Who will win Miami vs Purdue?
Purdue: The Purdue Boilermakers are title contenders and enter this game with momentum after winning the Big Ten tourney and destroying Queens University in the first round. It's been a remarkable turnaround for the Miami Hurricanes under Jai Lucas, but they aren't on the same tier as Purdue.
Miami vs Purdue best bet: Over 147.5 (-110)
The Boilermakers have the highest rated offense in KenPom history and shoot a sizzling 38.5% from deep. They'll torch a Miami defense that is 319th in opponent 3PT% (37.3%) since January 1.
That said, Miami can exploit Purdue's man-to-man defense through pick-and-roll action and scoring in the paint.
The Canes rank 34th in the country in 2PT% (56.9%), while the Boilermakers are 340th in 2-point defense (56.9%) since New Year's Day.
With both offenses perfectly built to exploit the other team's defensive weakness, take the Over. Especially with KenPom and Bart Torvik projecting 153 and 154 points, respectively.
COVERS INTEL: Purdue is in the top 20 in 2PT% (58.4%), 3PT% (38.5%), turnover rate, and offensive rebounding rate, while ranking fourth in assists per field goal made. 
Miami vs Purdue same-game parlay
Since I expect the Boilermakers to capitalize on Miami's atrocious 3-point defense, let's back their best outside shooter, Fletcher Loyer.
Loyer shoots 42.3% from deep and has knocked down 3+ treys in his last four games.
Miami played essentially just six players against Mizzou, with the big bodies in their frontcourt all logging 37+ minutes. It's a short turnaround from the late game on Friday to the early slot on Sunday, which could result in tired legs.
The Boilermakers' core had plenty of rest in Friday's blowout win against Queens. That should lead to them pulling away when Miami fatigues.
Miami vs Purdue SGP
- Over 147.5
- Fletcher Loyer Over 2.5 threes
- Purdue ML
Our Big Dance SGP: Full steam ahead
Loyer has dropped at least 14 points in six straight games, while star PG Braden Smith just set the Div. 1 career assist record. Purdue's attack also thrives when Oscar Cluff owns the offensive glass, and the center has cleared 8.5 boards in four of his last five.
If all three of those players perform at a high level, it's very likely that Purdue covers. Coach Matt Painter is 18-8 ATS as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament while going 23-7 ATS in the first two rounds.
Miami vs Purdue SGP
- Fletcher Loyer Over 13.5 points
- Braden Smith Over 9.5 assists
- Oscar Cluff Over 8.5 rebounds
- Purdue -7.5
Miami vs Purdue odds
- Spread: Miami +7.5 | Purdue -7.5
- Moneyline: Miami +265 | Purdue -330
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 | Under 147.5
Miami vs Purdue betting trend to know
Purdue has cashed the Over in eight of its previous 11 games while Miami is 17-8 O/U in its last 25. Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Purdue.
How to watch Miami vs Purdue
| Location | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Sunday, March 22, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Miami vs Purdue key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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