Spurs vs Timberwolves Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Minnesota's Defense Leads the Way

The most compelling race of the NBA regular season stretch run should be atop the Western Conference. The Minnesota Timberwolves are more aware of that than anybody, currently tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 1 seed with their tiebreakers very much in flux.

Winning a game against the San Antonio Spurs may be an NBA odds likelihood, but it's also a necessity for the Timberwolves. They cannot squander any game moving forward, certainly not one in which they are double-digit favorites.

When Minnesota needs to win, it turns to its defense, which will lead our thinking in our free NBA picks as we preview Spurs vs. Timberwolves on Tuesday, February 27.

Spurs vs Timberwolves odds

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Spurs vs Timberwolves predictions

To pull a line from a Minnesota Timberwolves handicap from All-Star Break Eve, “So often, handicapping is based on identifying a trend and riding it just long enough to profit but not so long as it is figured out or expires. That has been difficult with Minnesota, simply because there has been so little lull to its season...

“But its defense has never lagged. Pull up any subset of at least 10 games during the season, and the Timberwolves defense remains atop the defensive rating rankings.”

That is still true.

Minnesota is frustrated by its offense in the two games coming out of the All-Star Break, but it hung with Milwaukee and then trounced Brooklyn because the defense remains a constant.

Across the last month of actual action — take a five-week sample size right now, to account for the All-Star Break — 10 of the Timberwolves’ last 16 opponents have fallen short of their team totals. Fittingly, Minnesota is 10-6 outright in that stretch.

Those do not line up one-for-one, but they come pretty close. The Timberwolves’ late-game offensive woes gave the Magic and Bulls unexpected hope, both then rallying to wins. The Blazers cleared a team total simply because Minnesota was up by so much, allowing 13 points in the final 2:16 hardly mattered.

Tonight could be such a blowout, but if there is any team the Timberwolves will not take too lightly, it should be the San Antonio Spurs, who sprang an upset on Minnesota in late January, buoyed by — you guessed it — fourth-quarter struggles from the Timberwolves offense.

Minnesota should not be kept unawares twice by Victor Wembanyama & Co. And the single piece of consistency the Timberwolves can rely on is their defense.

My best bet: Spurs team total Under 105.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Spurs vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Spurs team total Under 104.5

Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 points

Mike Conley Over 5.5 assists

+575 at BetRivers

Yes, that Spurs team total is one point lower than it is in our best bet, but playing this parlay at BetRivers with that 1-point change and one extra point on Rudy Gobert’s scoring prop increases the SGP payout by 16% compared to DraftKings. That is a worthwhile risk.

Raising a parlay’s payout with points from the certain Defensive Player of the Year may strike you as counter-intuitive, but the reality is, Gobert has become an offensive strength this season. He's scored 15+ points in 13 of his last 20 games. Narrow that to games in which Mike Conley also plays, and Gobert has cracked 15 points in 11 of those last 16 games.

By no coincidence, Conley has handed out 6+ assists in six of his last 10 games since returning from a balky hamstring. Two of those exceptions came over this weekend, as did two of Gobert’s lower-scoring games, while Minnesota’s offense remained on break.

If just a few more shots start falling, that worrying narrative should be dismissed, and it will show up in Conley’s assists.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spurs vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

This line actually opened bigger, as Minnesota was initially favored by 14 points on Monday afternoon. By Tuesday morning, it had fallen to -12.5 before climbing back to -13.5 before lunchtime. 

That movement may have been tied to optimism about Gobert playing through an ankle injury, officially listed as questionable but no one around the organization seemed too concerned with his prognosis.

The Timberwolves are 7-6 against the spread this season when favored by more than three buckets.

The total opened at 223.5 and climbed to 224.5 by Monday’s dinner, then ticking upward to 225.5 on Tuesday morning.

Spurs vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

Despite Victor Wembanyama’s stat-stuffing of late, the Spurs have cashed four Unders in their last six games, with one of those exceptions being a push. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Timberwolves.

Spurs vs Timberwolves game info

Spurs vs Timberwolves latest injuries

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